Nadal vs Federer : Who Will Be the First To Retire

the AntiPusher

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Clay Death said:
another hard court slam is probably not going to happen.

it will take just the right draw and somebody would have to get rid of nole for him.

I am talking probabilities here:

his best chances remain on the natural surfaces.

don't go by montreal or indian wells. these events are also just best of 3 sets foremats.


nole was rusty and nadal played a reasonably good match. nole is still 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


indian wells was luck: no nole and no murray. and a very worn out del potro.
roger had a horrible back there. he could hardly walk.

I give up .. its like trying to convince Paula Dean that Elvis didn't invent Rock and Roll
 

ClayDeath

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Kieran said:
You're very negative, General Samson. Had you been one of the famed 300, your spear would be shaking and your shield would wouldn't hold in the phalanx... ;)



I try not to peddle irrational exhuberance.


I guess you can I say that I am more of a realist.



again I said the probabilities:


the probabilities don't favor more/additional hard court slams for nadal.


the probabilities do favor or suggest more slams on natural surfaces for the clay warrior provided he plays his cards right.

I don't see any negativity in these remarks.



I think that is calling it responsibly. I like spirited discussions and debates and by all means keep it coming but I have to try to be objective.
 

Kieran

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Okay, but how can Rafa know he won't win HC slams without trying to win them first?

Or do you suggest he takes 7 months off every year after Wimbledon?
 

zalvar

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Good lord, what's wrong with trying anyway. Unlikely things can happen, right? Like Rafa losing to Soderling to give Fed the career slam. This is why he should play ALL.
 

ClayDeath

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you are just not following this:

just as roger`s best chance for another slam lies on grass, nadal`s best remaining chances for additional slams lie on the natural surfaces.

I have also seen recurrent knee issues for the last 5 years now. he and his team comes out every single year and cry about the hard courts.

there is a reason why they do that. they are right. hard courts have compounded the knee issues to a point now where each knee episode leads to a longer and longer layoff.

obviously he is going to go after the u.s. open but if it doesn't happen and he re-injures the knee in the process then its is high time to take a step back and revaluate the situation.

does he want a very limited career and no slams or does he want a longer career with possibilities for more slams on natural surfaces.

most of the experts agree with me: so far he has not made the best of decisions with his training and his scheduling.
 

Kieran

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"Most of the experts" seem to be letting you down lately.

I'm still not sure what you propose: that he take time off after Wimbledon and come back again in February for the clay, or he does what he's doing, which is compete for the US Open?
 

brokenshoelace

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Clay Death said:
next question:


who will miss these two giants of the sport the most?

Given that 90% of tennis fans are either Federer fans, Nadal fans, or fans of both, I'd say pretty much everyone.
 

shawnbm

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We need Rafa in New York, as well as elsewhere. :)
 

brokenshoelace

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Clay Death said:
clay warrior can play a lot longer if he lets go of his blind infatuation with hard courts.

he should just aim to capture a few more slams on the natural surfaces.

He only played two hard court tournaments this year. Won them both without any supernatural efforts. I think he realizes he can't play every hard court tournament in sight.
 

brokenshoelace

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Front242 said:
Really, when you see how many titles Nadal has won this year I think all the knee talk is completely blown out of proportion and he'll be playing at a high level a lot longer than people think.

True, but then again, all the titles he's won this year came on the heels of a 7 months long layoff due to a knee injury.
 

zalvar

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Kieran said:
"Most of the experts" seem to be letting you down lately.

I'm still not sure what you propose: that he take time off after Wimbledon and come back again in February for the clay, or he does what he's doing, which is compete for the US Open?

Exactly! No one wants to play half a damn season. Rafa has goals that we do not know of. And that may be winning more HC slams. God knows he's already proven himself on the clay. He doesn't need to cherry pick natural surfaces.

If his main goal is to preserve his knees then you're right. But he has to take risks so he can tell himself that he tried and not just end up pathetically title chasing, as CDeath seem to prefer for him.
 

ClayDeath

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agreed. they will both be missed tremendously.

they alone took the sport absolutely global.

they have 29 slams between them. 29 and counting.

nobody in history has ever dominated the sport like these 2 did and they did it for a decade.
 

brokenshoelace

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Clay Death said:
plan B is trying to win where you can and that would be the natural surfaces.

Just food for thought: The two most extended injury-related layoffs he went through in recent memory came right after a clay court season. This idea that he can just play on clay and his knees will be fine, whereas hard court is a death sentence needs to stop. Nadal's knees are suspect pretty much everywhere. The clay court season actually happens to be the most condensed time of the season for Nadal, where he virtually plays a tournament every week.
 

Front242

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Broken_Shoelace said:
Front242 said:
Really, when you see how many titles Nadal has won this year I think all the knee talk is completely blown out of proportion and he'll be playing at a high level a lot longer than people think.

True, but then again, all the titles he's won this year came on the heels of a 7 months long layoff due to a knee injury.

Still, I'd be more than happy with that. Fed took 2 months off to heal his back and won the square root of f**k all in over a year, just Halle. I'm simply saying I think all this negativity is a bit far fetched and I personally believe Nadal will play longer than many suspect and still be a major force to be reckoned with for quite some time.
 

ClayDeath

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there is no question he is making a push for the top spot right now.

lets see how it goes. I worry the most about the knee. and of course I worry about his longevity.

I don't really care all that much for the titles on hard courts.

there is a very limited time left. he cant afford anymore knee issues.


he and his team actually declared to the world before the last 7 month layoff that hard courts were killing his knees. they also told the press they had to make some adjustments.

the adjustments they spoke of had to with cutting back on the hard courts.

he has signed up for basel and he has signed up for Beijing. and then there is WTF. it just goes on and on.

only nobody will be laughing when the next knee injury happens and he cant play for another 7-8 months.
 

Front242

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Clay Death said:
there is no question he is making a push for the top spot right now.

lets see how it goes. I worry the most about the knee. and of course I worry about his longevity.

I don't really care all that much for the titles on hard courts.

there is a very limited time left. he cant afford anymore knee issues.


he and his team actually declared to the world before the last 7 month layoff that hard courts were killing his knees. they also told the press they had to make some adjustments.

the adjustments they spoke of had to with cutting back on the hard courts.

he has signed up for basel and he has signed up for Beijing. and then there is WTF. it just goes on and on.

only nobody will be laughing when the next knee injury happens and he cant play for another 7-8 months.

Basel is a very wise move actually. He clearly is targeting the WTF as this is the most similar surface to the WTF court and a tournament he'd desperately love to win. And you can bet the first time appearance fee is another key reason he's playing Basel this year. But mostly it's about getting the best practice pre WTF. A great choice imo that should serve him well and with Del Potro defending there this year and Fed playing too it's gonna be the best of the best as competition warm up for London and the WTF.
 

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Broken_Shoelace said:
Clay Death said:
plan B is trying to win where you can and that would be the natural surfaces.

Just food for thought: The two most extended injury-related layoffs he went through in recent memory came right after a clay court season. This idea that he can just play on clay and his knees will be fine, whereas hard court is a death sentence needs to stop. Nadal's knees are suspect pretty much everywhere. The clay court season actually happens to be the most condensed time of the season for Nadal, where he virtually plays a tournament every week.

You've mentioned a version of this before, which is valid to point out. (You've also reminded us that clay is punishing for the length of points, and the fact that Rafa generally plays deep into/wins every tournament he enters there. That's a lot of tennis.) I don't really understand CD's position, to be honest. Is it that he should give up on much of the HC season, or simply that CD doesn't think he'll win much there? I'm with what seems to be the majority: if Rafa's going to be an elite tennis player, he's going to have to play a certain number of HC tournaments, and he's going to play all the Slams, if he can. The only choice he has is to be judicious about his tournament choices and practice. His knees are an unknown factor going forward, and I hope he can control the pain and damage until at least 31. But as long as he plays, I'm sure he'll play to win.

Front242 said:
Clay Death said:
there is no question he is making a push for the top spot right now.

lets see how it goes. I worry the most about the knee. and of course I worry about his longevity.

I don't really care all that much for the titles on hard courts.

there is a very limited time left. he cant afford anymore knee issues.


he and his team actually declared to the world before the last 7 month layoff that hard courts were killing his knees. they also told the press they had to make some adjustments.

the adjustments they spoke of had to with cutting back on the hard courts.

he has signed up for basel and he has signed up for Beijing. and then there is WTF. it just goes on and on.

only nobody will be laughing when the next knee injury happens and he cant play for another 7-8 months.

Basel is a very wise move actually. He clearly is targeting the WTF as this is the most similar surface to the WTF court and a tournament he'd desperately love to win. And you can bet the first time appearance fee is another key reason he's playing Basel this year. But mostly it's about getting the best practice pre WTF. A great choice imo that should serve him well and with Del Potro defending there this year and Fed playing too it's gonna be the best of the best as competition warm up for London and the WTF.

That's a really good point, Front. Thanks for pointing that out.
 

ClayDeath

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it is not enough for you folks that he has 8 titles already this year and that he basically kills himself to capture everything in sight on the red clay.

and he has been doing that on the red clay for a decade. for a bloody decade.

it is just not enough for you. you want him to kill himself the entire year on all possible surfaces just you can say he has more titles on other surfaces.


I thought greed had its limits but it is just absolutely boundless with you folks.

you want him to dominate on every single surface from start of the year to the end of the year.


have you considered the fact that he is just one man? have you considered that he has the most demanding style of play of any player out there?

have you thought about the condition of his knee?

have you considered the fact that the sport has become very demanding?


do you want him gone from the sport in a year?


I rather see him healthy and well and playing for 5-6 more years. and I know he can capture at least 2-3 more slams on natural surfaces if he is wise.
 

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Rafael Nadal has been fortunate to win 2 majors on hard courts in his career. At the AO in 2009, he somehow amazingly recovered from an exhausting 5+ hour 5 set match with Verdasco where he won when Verdasco basically broke himself by double faulting twice, including match point, at 4-5, and then went on to beat Federer a day and a half later also in 5 sets. Then he just had to jump on the hard courts at Rotterdam, didn't he? The damage was done, and though he managed to win 3 of the lesser clay tourneys, look what happened at Roland Garros and Wimbledon that year.

A year and a half later, he completed his best slam year by winning the US Open over Djokovic. During this tournament, he came up with an amazing serve and one might say his draw was favorable. In 2012, he played the longest AO match in history with Djokovic where they almost both collapsed. didn't play again till Indian Wells, where he lost to Federer in the SF, but won the doubles title, then at Miami he had to withdraw due to knee problems to Murray in the SF. Again, the damage had been done, though he was able to last through Roland Garros until Wimbledon.

He has won 8 majors on clay and 2 on grass. So 83% of majors were won on natural surfaces. A high percentage of his 58 titles have come on clay - 42, 3 on grass, so 45 of 58, close to 78% titles won overall on natural surfaces.


Now ask yourself, as he approaches his 10th year playing at slam winning level, and considering the competition, on which surface(s) do you think he has his best chances to win a major, or any other title? Even though he has won 13 titles on hard in a nine year span including 2 this year, showing he is not an incompetent player on the surface, it is still obvious where his best results and talents lie.

Again, though his play has ended up being disrupted due to his knee problems after Roland Garros/Wimbledon, the big problems with the knees always began with the hard courts in the early part of the year. He was able to manage the problems with his knees via shots and other therapy and keep himself going until after Roland Garros. Of course, if he started the clay season with problems, going deep in almost every clay tournament with the problems, also took its toll.

This makes sense when you consider that the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami are probably the slowest, high bouncing surfaces, which equals longer rallies, longer games, and longer sets on the joint jarring surface. Even though these conditions favor Nadal's game style, it is murder on his knees. Resting for 7 months, and then in 2013 only playing only 1 hard court tournament - Indian Wells, prior to Montreal, is an investment that has probably helped him be healthier now than he has been in quite a while. Notice he wore no tape on the knee in Montreal.

In order to extend his career as much as possible and be successful, I think he must have been advised to avoid the hard courts as much as possible. Play only the required number of masters, majors, YEC, and possibly a tune up. Refrain from playing two hard court masters two weeks in a row in slow conditions, that is, visit his friend Larry Ellison and play Indian Wells and skip Miami. And only do this amount of hard court play if close to 100% healthy. Using this strategy might get him to 2016 in reasonable shape. Playing 5-6 hour best of 5 matches at the AO and 3-4 hour best of 3 matches at Indian Wells and Miami and other insignificant hard court tournaments is a recipe for problems.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 

ClayDeath

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you tell em general masterclass.


I thought it was clear enough.


evidently some people think he is a machine that can clean up on every single surface from the start of the year to the end of the year.