Nadal: Fear Factor

[10isfan]

I thought for a long while that there would be a bunch retiring at the end of 2016. Players would make one last push to contend at the Olympics then call it a career. If Nadal continues to struggle and loses at FO again, I wouldn't be surprised if he left the sport. I would be surprised if he married Fran.

 

[Front242]

It's looking like when he loses the French Open not if at this stage. If he can't beat the players in a 250 or 500 he'll get mangled in the clay masters and French Open against higher ranked players.

 

[Carol]

The dream of any desperate Roger's fan 'Rafa Nadal is mangled and can't win any more title' :snicker
Wait, I don't see him off yet, he still could give you more than one dislike and honesty I will enjoy a lot, he just has to 'click' and he could do it anytime

 

[Front242]

The dream of any Roger's fan, 'Rafa Nadal is mangled and can't win any more title' :snicker
Wait, I don't see him off yet, he still could give you more than one dislike and honesty I will enjoy a lot, he just has to 'click' and he could do it anytime

When did I say he won't win any other title? See, there you go again making up things I never said. I said it's not looking likely he'll win the bigger tournaments on clay against much better and much higher ranked opponents than he faced in the last 2 tournaments. I don't see how you could really disagree with that based on what we've just witnessed at the last 2 smaller events.

 

[Carol]

The dream of any Roger's fan, 'Rafa Nadal is mangled and can't win any more title' :snicker
Wait, I don't see him off yet, he still could give you more than one dislike and honesty I will enjoy a lot, he just has to 'click' and he could do it anytime

When did I say he won't win any other title? See, there you go again making up things I never said. I said it's not looking likely he'll win the bigger tournaments on clay against much better and much higher ranked opponents than he faced in the last 2 tournaments. I don't see how you could really disagree with that based on what we've just witnessed at the last 2 smaller events.

Who cares about those smaller events, yes, Rafa is playing bad but it doesn't mean he couldn't play better tomorrow and I hope he will, why not?

 

[Front242]

No one cares about them but my point is if he can't beat those players then what hope has he of beating the much better ones? Fairly slim wouldn't you say? He can of course play better but to win any of the bigger events he most likely has to beat Djokovic and he's not going to do that.

 

[El Dude]

Here's a conspiracy theory: Rafa's poor play this year is all bluff. He's trying to make Novak feel over-confident so that when Roland Garros comes around, he turns on the gas and blows a complacent Novak away.

 

[nehmeth]

Here's a conspiracy theory: Rafa's poor play this year is all bluff. He's trying to make Novak feel over-confident so that when Roland Garros comes around, he turns on the gas and blows a complacent Novak away.

uzzled :cover :nono


I know you're kidding.

 

[Carol]

No one cares about them but my point is if he can't beat those players then what hope has he of beating the much better ones? Fairly slim wouldn't you say? He can of course play better but to win any of the bigger events he most likely has to beat Djokovic and he's not going to do that.

The last think that Rafa is thinking right now is Novak. First he has to go out of the doldrums and to be the good player as always has been. When he has the decision to come back seriously then we'll talk about to whom he would like to beat and how

 

[Haelfix]

I watched the recent loss on tennis channel. Couple things stood out to me.

1) Nadal after 2009 lost his unparalleled movement, but replaced it with a slightly advanced court positioning, and even MORE spin than he used too. In particular his serve really packed on a lot of oomph, and his forehand became even more of a neutralizer, pinning people back and not allowing them to open up the court on him.

The problem now is that his serve has lost some combination of spin and/or accuracy, and its allowing people to get ahead in the return game before Nadal is ready. In short, he doesn't get into that comfortable point pattern as much, and the loss of control is creating matchup problems for him. Since he doesn't defend as well as he used too, he can't quite get back into the point the same way as he did in 2008.

2) Like what happened to Federer in 2008, he has lost consistency on his groundstrokes. Nadal probably used to commit the fewest amount of errors per shot on tour. He could literally rally all day long. Now, there are a lot more mistakes, and again with the theme, he has lost some amount of control. He's not a guy thats going to hit a ton of winners, so this is particularly bad for him.

His losses recently remind me a lot about what used to happen to him against Federer's generation. The Blake's, Davydenko's and Nalbandians of the world who were able to get to him by ball striking him off the court. I feel like he was able to mitigate those types of losses with his improved serving, but with the recent poor form, the same type of losses are beginning to reappear.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I watched the recent loss on tennis channel. Couple things stood out to me.

1) Nadal after 2009 lost his unparalleled movement, but replaced it with a slightly advanced court positioning, and even MORE spin than he used too. In particular his serve really packed on a lot of oomph, and his forehand became even more of a neutralizer, pinning people back and not allowing them to open up the court on him.

The problem now is that his serve has lost some combination of spin and/or accuracy, and its allowing people to get ahead in the return game before Nadal is ready. In short, he doesn't get into that comfortable point pattern as much, and the loss of control is creating matchup problems for him. Since he doesn't defend as well as he used too, he can't quite get back into the point the same way as he did in 2008.

2) Like what happened to Federer in 2008, he has lost consistency on his groundstrokes. Nadal probably used to commit the fewest amount of errors per shot on tour. He could literally rally all day long. Now, there are a lot more mistakes, and again with the theme, he has lost some amount of control. He's not a guy thats going to hit a ton of winners, so this is particularly bad for him.

His losses recently remind me a lot about what used to happen to him against Federer's generation. The Blake's, Davydenko's and Nalbandians of the world who were able to get to him by ball striking him off the court. I feel like he was able to mitigate those types of losses with his improved serving, but with the recent poor form, the same type of losses are beginning to reappear.

Good post Halifix, I would also say the primary reason is Rafa errors are caused by his opponents shorten the rallies. The book on Rafa is when he pulls you out of position or off the court hit the looping topspin as hard as possible, Rafa will just block it back and step in for the put away winner. FF3 did it, Lopez in Cincy, Verdasco did it at AO. It's like a recurring match everyone playing him with the same tactics. Rafa has got to commit to trying to take the center of the court sooner

 

[El Dude]

The last think that Rafa is thinking right now is Novak. First he has to go out of the doldrums and to be the good player as always has been. When he has the decision to come back seriously then we'll talk about to whom he would like to beat and how

Carol, you do realize that Rafa has been in the "doldrums" for two years now? Do you really expect him to get out of the doldrums and resume business as usual?

On one hand I respect your loyalty and sense of hope. On the other hand, I'm not sure I've ever encountered a fan that is so in denial about the state of their favorite player. I mean, who knows - maybe Rafa is just struggling to find his game again, but it has been two years, Carol! Maybe its time to start accepting what we're all seeing on the court?

Not meaning to be cruel, just some honest feedback.

 

[the AntiPusher]

The last think that Rafa is thinking right now is Novak. First he has to go out of the doldrums and to be the good player as always has been. When he has the decision to come back seriously then we'll talk about to whom he would like to beat and how

Carol, you do realize that Rafa has been in the "doldrums" for two years now? Do you really expect him to get out of the doldrums and resume business as usual?

On one hand I respect your loyalty and sense of hope. On the other hand, I'm not sure I've ever encountered a fan that is so in denial about the state of their favorite player. I mean, who knows - maybe Rafa is just struggling to find his game again, but it has been two years, Carol! Maybe its time to start accepting what we're all seeing on the court?

Not meaning to be cruel, just some honest feedback.

I see nothing wrong with what Carol posted. Rafa has to steady his own mental ship first before he begins to focus on taking apart Novak's game. Carol trust me, 2013 and early 2014 these boards had a different tone .

 

[Front242]

Yeah except it's not just a "decision to come back" as she put it. A lot of it is outside his control. You can't regain lost speed due to age and movement doesn't magically get better as you get older, nor do reaction speeds. Quite the opposite. All he can really work on is improving consistency on the forehand, serving better and not hitting as many short balls. Oh and don't forget he's lost a ton of muscle so he can't hit the ball as hard.

 

[Haelfix]

I've been reading some of these comments, and again here we go with the mental factor whenever a player is playing poorly.

No offense, but I think its time we retire that ship as a catch all explanation every single time a great player starts losing. I mean that players don't suddenly radically change their mental makeup from one minute to the next.

The same thing was attributed to Federer when he started losing to Nadal on grass and hards. A guy who was absolutely ice and by far the best player on tour in the mental department for 5+ years during his prime, a guy who won almost every single important point and made it look easy. Then suddenly, he's a mental midget.

Then Nadal brings the mental art to perhaps an even greater level, a modern Ice Borg, for the next 3 or 4 years with his clutch play in countless situations. Then Novak (a previous mental midget) comes around, and takes the throne as the best in the game in the mental department and now its Nadal who has Novak in his head and oh its Nadal that crumbles in big points. Then it 360s the next year, Novak can't win the big matches anymore, and then nope it 360's again.

Seriously.. It's a pretty silly story. When will we admit that a player that loses the big points, is overwhelmingly more likely to lose the point, when his overall level is slightly less than the opponent.

It's not a coincidence Nadal is losing many of these matches. You see the problem in the first points of the first set. You see it in the athletic difference between the players (whereas before it was Nadal who had physical superiority, now its often the younger fresher player), you see it in the ease which opponents dictate their gameplan on Nadal, and the difficulty that Nadal has in dictating his own. You see it when Nadal, in between points, is analyzing his tactics and determining what he needs to change in order to win (whereas before, the answer was 'just play your game', now its 'how do i counter the opponent')

Oh, and im pretty sure on the ATP tour, no player 'fears' any other player. Everyone believes they can win. Why? B/c players in practice routinely bagel each other and viceversa, and they all know the difference between each other is paper thin. Everyone can hit aces, everyone has matches where they are return gods and where they hit winners from almost everywhere. It's just a matter of execution.

 

[Kieran]

Oh, and im pretty sure on the ATP tour, no player 'fears' any other player. Everyone believes they can win. Why? B/c players in practice routinely bagel each other and viceversa, and they all know the difference between each other is paper thin. Everyone can hit aces, everyone has matches where they are return gods and where they hit winners from almost everywhere. It's just a matter of execution.

Doh! :cover

Actually, tennis players, being human, do feel fear. McEnroe's great run of losses to Lendl in the 80's weren't only due to poor execution brought about by the fact that his opponent was better - and when the rivalry instantly switched around on a dime and Mac began to hammer Ivan, it wasn't because Ivan suddenly became so poor and Mac improved so much. It was because McEnroe had gotten the monkey off his back and shaken off his fear.

The idea of a Nemesis is a real one, shown by tennis history. Reducing these men to the level of mere automatons is to show poor understanding of just how important mental toughness and psychology is in the game. Have you ever watched a player blaze through the rounds, then crumple with nerves in the final?

If not, go back and watch Lendl's run at the US Open in 1982. He thrashed Mac in the semis and should have been a shoo-in against Connors in the final - and he choked. It often happened to him. It had nothing to do with execution, or match-up, or any of these scams: it was mental. He literally "radically changed his mental make up" from one match to the next.

Watch McEnroe in Paris in 1984, a classic example. Agassi was notorious for it, and how else do we explain his going AWOL against Andres Gomes in the FO final in 1990?

In terms of players getting under each others skin and affecting how their opponent plays, well, I'm flabbergasted that anyone could write this: "Then Novak (a previous mental midget) comes around, and takes the throne as the best in the game in the mental department and now its Nadal who has Novak in his head and oh its Nadal that crumbles in big points."

Seriously, do you think tennis players are made of aluminium, with electric wires for veins?

Of course tennis players can crack and suddenly become tight when they face an opponent who's under their skin. And yes, players can get under their opponents skin. Novak managed it in 2011 with Nadal. And yes, Novak was a mental midget, and then he wasn't. We're not dealing with robots here, we're dealing with humans. And humans learn, change, fail when we least expect them to, and become nervous. Even the best.

And nobody is attributing Rafa's decline to just the mental factor. But without confidence, any player starts losing. Even if he's been a show-off on the practice ground...

 

[El Dude]

I see nothing wrong with what Carol posted. Rafa has to steady his own mental ship first before he begins to focus on taking apart Novak's game. Carol trust me, 2013 and early 2014 these boards had a different tone .

Its not "wrong," but I just think she's in denial. We're not talking about a few months, half a year, or even a year. Rafa hasn't won a significant title since the French Open in 2014 - that's almost two years.

I'm not saying give up hope, just temper expectations and accept that this clay season might be his last chance to "figure things out." If he doesn't win at least a Masters and show some of his old form, I think the end is nigh.

 

[El Dude]

Good points from both Haelfix and Kieran: I think you're both right. Psychology, in particular confidence, is a huge part of performance, yet it is directly related to and often inspired by actual physical decline. When a player can't do the things he used to be able to do (physically), it threatens his confidence, which might lead to thinking too much on the court and making a player more error-prone.

When the physical skills start to erode, some players are able to make adjustments, some aren't (or won't). But when you start getting that nagging bit of doubt in your mind...that's very, very hard to combat and takes a lot of work and trial and error to fight through. Think of the nightmare that was Roger's forehand in 2013. He fought through, changed his game and racket--and of course his back healed--and he has looked much better since.

That said, I'm not sure there is the same potential for adjustment with Rafa because of how reliant his game is upon pure physicality. He doesn't have the complex skill-set to fall back on like Roger. He needs unreal stamina and speed to play his game, and as that begins to erode, his confidence and overall ability with it.

On the other hand, if Rafa is able to win a Masters this clay season, then all bets are off. I don't foresee a return to his peak level but he could be dangerous going into Roland Garros. And that has to do with increased confidence.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

I've been reading some of these comments, and again here we go with the mental factor whenever a player is playing poorly.

No offense, but I think its time we retire that ship as a catch all explanation every single time a great player starts losing. I mean that players don't suddenly radically change their mental makeup from one minute to the next.

The same thing was attributed to Federer when he started losing to Nadal on grass and hards. A guy who was absolutely ice and by far the best player on tour in the mental department for 5+ years during his prime, a guy who won almost every single important point and made it look easy. Then suddenly, he's a mental midget.

Then Nadal brings the mental art to perhaps an even greater level, a modern Ice Borg, for the next 3 or 4 years with his clutch play in countless situations. Then Novak (a previous mental midget) comes around, and takes the throne as the best in the game in the mental department and now its Nadal who has Novak in his head and oh its Nadal that crumbles in big points. Then it 360s the next year, Novak can't win the big matches anymore, and then nope it 360's again.

Seriously.. It's a pretty silly story. When will we admit that a player that loses the big points, is overwhelmingly more likely to lose the point, when his overall level is slightly less than the opponent.

It's not a coincidence Nadal is losing many of these matches. You see the problem in the first points of the first set. You see it in the athletic difference between the players (whereas before it was Nadal who had physical superiority, now its often the younger fresher player), you see it in the ease which opponents dictate their gameplan on Nadal, and the difficulty that Nadal has in dictating his own. You see it when Nadal, in between points, is analyzing his tactics and determining what he needs to change in order to win (whereas before, the answer was 'just play your game', now its 'how do i counter the opponent')

Oh, and im pretty sure on the ATP tour, no player 'fears' any other player. Everyone believes they can win. Why? B/c players in practice routinely bagel each other and viceversa, and they all know the difference between each other is paper thin. Everyone can hit aces, everyone has matches where they are return gods and where they hit winners from almost everywhere. It's just a matter of execution.

Dead wrong on that account. It is a fact...often noted by Brad Gilbert and others..than many elite players are up "3-0" in the locker room. Maybe even "4-1" during the walk out.

When Borg was #1, there many newspaper and magazine about Borg, and in several they interviewed dozens of players in the top 100..they all said, without question, that when they saw Borg as their next opponent, they booked a flight home.

Just two days ago, Martin Kilzan dropped his head in his hands and cringed when he was drawn Nikkie K. in Dubai. It was caught on video.

It is NOT just a matter of execution. Certain players have an aura..every tennis player knows when they see another tennis player who feels unbeatable..it leaves an empty pit in your stomach..trust me...you think about just not embarrassing your self. What Joker did to Robredo was downright cruel. uzzled

 

[herios]

You see it in the athletic difference between the players (whereas before it was Nadal who had physical superiority, now its often the younger fresher player), you see it in the ease which opponents dictate their gameplan on Nadal, and the difficulty that Nadal has in dictating his own.

Younger players like: Cuevas., Verdasco, Tsonga or Feli Lopez?