NA Hard Season - General Discussion

[GameSetAndMath]

The seeds were officially announced on Tuesday, even though we knew it since Sunday evening. Here are the top 16 seeds.

1. Rafael Nadal, Spain
2. Roger Federer, Switzerland
3. Juan Martin del Potro, Argentina
4. Alexander Zverev, Germany
5. Kevin Anderson, South Africa
6. Novak Djokovic, Serbia
7. Marin Cilic, Croatia
8. Grigor Dimitrov, Bulgaria
9. Dominic Thiem, Austria
10. David Goffin, Belgium
11. John Isner, United States
12. Pablo Carreno Busta, Spain
13. Diego Schwartzman, Argentina
14. Fabio Fognini, Italy
15. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Greece
16. Kyle Edmund, Great Britain

The top 8 players will be facing players seeded 24-32 in the third round. This means three lucky players from top 8 will get to face Nick Kyrgios, Milos Raonic and Shapo in third round. Those three could be tough third round matches.

In the fourth round players seeded 1-4 will face players seeded 13-16 (assuming the seeds hold). This means one of the lucky top four
players will face Theseus in R4.

Finally, one of the top four players will have to face Novak in the QF.

Stating these things beforehand makes the discussion of "cup cake draw" vs. "Herculean task" more objective.

 

[Mastoor]

So when is the draw? It's only 3 days to start, isn't it?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So when is the draw? It's only 3 days to start, isn't it?

I think Thursday 2 p.m. EDT

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Draw matters for Federer who is in bad form.

Here are some people have beaten Federer this year: Choric (on grass omg), Anderson. Serious, mate?

Choric should never be able to beat Roger on grass as long as Roger isn't 47. And Anderson is someone who does not have anything too formidable apart from his serve. You expect someone like Roger to handle that on grass.

I am scared of Del Potro and obviously Djokovic right now.

 

[Mastoor]

Even though I know it is between 30 and 300 times easier than any draw Nole has ever had before, so it is not likely at all, for some reason I think Nole will have following path to the title:

Round 1 Bedene
Round 2 Struff
Round 3 Gasquet
Round 4 Fucsovics
QF Berdych
SF Chung
F Cilic

 

[isabelle]

hope Nole can win that

 

[DarthFed]

Even though I know it is between 30 and 300 times easier than any draw Nole has ever had before, so it is not likely at all, for some reason I think Nole will have following path to the title:

Round 1 Bedene
Round 2 Struff
Round 3 Gasquet
Round 4 Fucsovics
QF Berdych
SF Chung
F Cilic

If only he'd run into great players such as Istomin and Cecchinato I'm sure he would've lost.

Djokovic did a good job being too weak or too much of a pussy to meet Roger the past year and a half. Fed did not return the favor with his awful 2013 and poor 2014-2016 period.

Where were you the last year and a half by the way? Were you giving it to a Bollywood actress or something?

 

[Jelenafan]

I
Djokovic did a good job being too weak or too much of a pussy to meet Roger the past year and a half. Fed did not return the favor with his awful 2013 and poor 2014-2016 period.
/QUOTE]

Well there you have it. Djokovic's abysmal hellish 18 months was just because he wanted to avoid playing Federer.
Who would have thunk it was that simple? :scratch:

 

[DarthFed]

Well there you have it. Djokovic's abysmal hellish 18 months was just because he wanted to avoid playing Federer.
Who would have thunk it was that simple? :scratch:

Way to not address the main point; Roger in crappy form still met/meets Djoker a lot, Djoker in crappy form simply did not.

 

[El Dude]

Darth, they've played 50 times. Don't you think it has evened out a bit? Maybe it is weighted more towards what you say, but that's a lot of matches.

Anyhow, I have no faith that Roger will go far in New York. Hopefully he can regain his form and finish the year strong, but the last few months have been his worst extened stretch in years.

 

[Jelenafan]

Way to not address the main point; Roger in crappy form still met/meets Djoker a lot, Djoker in crappy form simply did not.

Roger never got down to Djokovic’s year and a half tennis hell level.

Nice try though to try to equate them “equally” ie crappy form.

 

[Fiero425]

Roger never got down to Djokovic’s year and a half tennis hell level.

Nice try though to try to equate them “equally;” i.e. crappy form.

No, in comparison, Federer was in the wilderness for 5 yrs; '12 Wimbledon to '17 AO with 3 finals between. Wimb. & USO! :whistle:

 

[DarthFed]

Darth, they've played 50 times. Don't you think it has evened out a bit? Maybe it is weighted more towards what you say, but that's a lot of matches.

Anyhow, I have no faith that Roger will go far in New York. Hopefully he can regain his form and finish the year strong, but the last few months have been his worst extened stretch in years.

They've played 46. 14 through 2009 when Fed had the age advantage, 5 in 2010 which was neutral at best with Fed turning 29 and Djoker 23 (being very generous) and then 27 since 2011. Now, unless you're a Nadal and Djoker fan who thinks Fed has been in his prime since the days of Caesar, it's pretty clear who has had an edge...

 

[El Dude]

They've played 46. 14 through 2009 when Fed had the age advantage, 5 in 2010 which was neutral at best with Fed turning 29 and Djoker 23 (being very generous) and then 27 since 2011. Now, unless you're a Nadal and Djoker fan who thinks Fed has been in his prime since the days of Caesar, it's pretty clear who has had an edge...

I get that, but I was responding to your phrase "crappy form." I agree with you that the age gap favors Novak as most of their matches have been played when Roger was post-peak and Novak in his prime. But that isn't quite the same thing as form. There is overlap, but they don't fully equate. Form fluctuates more, and can even be match to match.

So Roger wasn't in "crappy form" for all of 2008 to 2018, and at times was in peak form. He was just at a generally lower (age-related) overall level than he was in 2004-07.

 

[Jelenafan]

No, in comparison, Federer was in the wilderness for 5 yrs; '12 Wimbledon to '17 AO with 3 finals between. Wimb. & USO! :whistle:

Don’t forget Rogers unbearably hellish 2015 had 2 major finals, WTF finals, 1 Masters win, 3 Masters finals and winning 2 other tournaments, oh the depths and inhumanity of it all...

 

[Fiero425]

Don’t forget Rogers unbearably hellish 2015 had 2 major finals, WTF finals, 1 Masters win, 3 Masters finals and winning 2 other tournaments, oh the depths and inhumanity of it all...

This is the consensus GOAT we're talking about! We should be able to expect more from him! Look at what happened to Nole in 2016; won 2 majors, finished off his Nole-Slam, was a finalist @ USO & YEC, but still wound up coming in 2nd to Murray! Why would you award more impressive mantle to Federer over that? TBH that period just showed how weak the ATP was allowing an aging player with arm issues and changing of his racket, still made all those finals! :whistle:

 

[Jelenafan]

This is the consensus GOAT we're talking about! We should be able to expect more from him! Look at what happened to Nole in 2016; won 2 majors, finished off his Nole-Slam, was a finalist @ USO & YEC, but still wound up coming in 2nd to Murray! Why would you award more impressive mantle to Federer over that? :whistle:

Nobody is claiming Nole had a crappy hellish 2016. Where as......

 

[DarthFed]

Don’t forget Rogers unbearably hellish 2015 had 2 major finals, WTF finals, 1 Masters win, 3 Masters finals and winning 2 other tournaments, oh the depths and inhumanity of it all...

So now we are going crazy over 2nd place? Let's remember he finished the year #3 to the always underwhelming Andy Murray.

 

[DarthFed]

I get that, but I was responding to your phrase "crappy form." I agree with you that the age gap favors Novak as most of their matches have been played when Roger was post-peak and Novak in his prime. But that isn't quite the same thing as form. There is overlap, but they don't fully equate. Form fluctuates more, and can even be match to match.

So Roger wasn't in "crappy form" for all of 2008 to 2018, and at times was in peak form. He was just at a generally lower (age-related) overall level than he was in 2004-07.

Any year he doesn't win a major is by definition a weak year. Obviously 2014 and 2015 were way better than 2013 but we are still talking poor seasons at best, one of which he didn't even finish above Murray.

Anyways it is mostly about focusing on the age difference. Even in this era it is clearly better to be 24 than 30 for the true greats of the game (Fedalovic). I'd say they all were quite a bit better at 23 than 29 as well and that's why I said it's generous to call 2010 the neutral year but it's clearly the closest thing to neutral.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Some interesting folks who have reached the final round of quals.

1. Casper Rudd
2. FAA
3. Polanksy will face Young (the Canadian and the American "losers").
4. Robredo will face Mahut