Let's talk about 2017...

[Kieran]

Wait and see. People who have seen Roger practicing said he looked incredible on court.

Did he look like this?

:lolz: :lolz: :laydownlaughing

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't expect Roger to start winning right away. For sure, he will have upsets in 2017 and he will lose to players that no one thinks he has any business losing as well. But, on the whole I think he will do well assuming he is healed completely or almost completely. I don't think aging will be serious factor with him. Actually, the six month long rest can also mentally rejuvenate him, forgetting the physical healing part. He will come back with a fresh perspective. He never had this much time off since he started playing. I think he will do better than he did in 2016 (that is a no-brainer) and 2013. He will probably reach the levels shown in 2014 and 2015. However, that combined with Novak's problems might give him a GS trophy.

 

[Carol]

Carol, another angle on this is that you have to acknowledge your own bias. I understand that you really, really want to believe that Rafa can come back, so you look at things a certain way and ignore or argue against different perspectives that challenge your "rosy-colored" view. For some reason the thought that Roger could have some gas left in him is threatening to your hope that Rafa will surge. I'm guessing this bothers you because you want to think that the five-year-younger Rafa has many years left in him.

So if you are bemused at why some feel that Roger and Rafa are similar in their potential for a comeback, you're ignoring the fact that Roger fans feel similarly about him as you do about Rafa, and those who are more objective and less biased--whether fans or not--look at both and see a roughly similar situation of an aging great who may or may not have one more surge in him.

El Dude......are you kidding me? really? who has "rosy-colored" view, you or me :laydownlaughing?
Are you serious thinking that that if Roger "could" have some gas left in him then is threatening to my hope that Rafa will surge and that bother me? do you think that I'm concerned if Roger plays good or not and it could affect to me?. Now it's my turn to tell you that if Rafa would play well it will affect to many of you (Roger's fans) more than us if Roger would play well because we have seen them play well before and....what happened? . Objetive and less biased....really?
Again, 5 years apart is a lot and more after almost one year off. I don't say that Roger is not going to play well but I doubt he will be able to win a GS. He was before injury free and he couldn't make it in four years, how he could do it now?. I don't know what Rafa will do (I have not a crystal ball) but he will have more probabilities to do better than Roger

 

[Front242]

Carol, have you seen how the others are playing right now (Novak in particular) ? That's why he of course has a chance to win big.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Wait and see. People who have seen Roger practicing said he looked incredible on court.

Did he look like this?

:lolz: :lolz: :laydownlaughing

What in the Hell was Roger thinking wearing this metrosexual threads

 

[Front242]

13 winners and 30 unforced errors in 2 sets. Those are pathetic numbers and that is why not only Roger but also others have a chance to win a slam in 2017 if Novak continues to play like this. Those stats are from the WTF final, one of his favourite surfaces.

 

[Kieran]

Federer is gonna be 36 next year. How old does he have to be "looking incredible" before your porridge starts to stink? Even typing this, auto-correct has removed "Federer" and left me with "Feeder", which is more likely. They're even making space for new players whose names we can't spell..,

 

[mrzz]

The actual fact is that 4 months ago (not a year, not two, not a decade) the guy was in a Wimbledon semi. Yes, he turns 36, but people can say what they want about age (and I know that it is statistically unlikely for a player to win big tournaments after 35), but the only piece of objective knowledge that we have on this is that a person does not gets significantly older in 6 months (well, a 6 months old baby does, it gets twice as old in 6 months).

We should not even think about common sense in this case. We are talking about the two guys who won more GS in history. They are obviously out of the curve -- outliers, in statistical parlance.

It is indeed quite true that people should not look in to a five year horizon when thinking about Federer, but I see no problem at all in looking at 2017 based on his 2015 and 2016 standards (nobody is looking at it with 2005 in mind).

I guess that is what bothers Nadal fan's. Being 29 (or 30, I do not know), people could look to a five year horizon, but the fact is that they actually doubt he will last that long, based on what they see in court, and how they perceive his game. That's why people are putting them both in the same bucket, and, right or wrong, this is far from outrageous.

P.S. Kieran, don't ever say that that photo is a good enough reason to strip three Wimbledon trophies from Federer. I would agree.

 

[Front242]

Federer is gonna be 36 next year. How old does he have to be "looking incredible" before your porridge starts to stink? Even typing this, auto-correct has removed "Federer" and left me with "Feeder", which is more likely. They're even making space for new players whose names we can't spell..,

Till he stops looking incredible basically. 35 with a gammy knee and still made the Wimbledon semis so I'd say he'll be around to annoy you quite a while at this rate

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

So, here goes our big discussion concerning 2017.

Let's begin with our no. 1. He is in form and I guess in the best mental shape ever. I don't expect anything less than very good tennis from him next year. I don't know if he ends up no. 1 but surely he is going to play more freely now with achievements on his side now like world no. 1 and 3rd grand slam. He is serving better than ever and if this continues I would fancy his chances of bagging another GS next year. Ivan Lendl really has always helped Murray take the next step whenever required.

I don't think Djokovic's situation is really very serious. He has lost his serve that's all. And from that all his weaknesses come to exist. His defeat to Murray should inspire him to do topple him again. By the way, let us not forget we are 7 weeks or so away from Australian Open. Isn't that close to 2 months? That's a lot of time to get your thing back. He needs to fix serve in the off season and then play a good Doha. That should help him get into a more useful mental state. At the moment its about slams, isn't it? If he gets one GS at some time next year he should be back winning them mainly because I don't see any giant-killers cropping up.

I heard Nadal recovered fully. If that is true, I think since he is motivated, with one or two good weeks on clay he should have a competing form by RG. If he is confident, he can take anyone down on clay. But, just as someone else also said, I would like to see Rafa do well on HCs and GCs again. At least the hard courts. It really feels like it has become an easy hunting ground for Nole and Murray where they had problems against Nadal in the past. I would love to see Nadal do well again.

I think the best thing in favour of Roger is his style of play. Without injuries, he can still play full seasons (although that would not be the wisest thing to do about now). The seedings will affect his results no doubt. But, the most woeful thing is these results might make his ranking fall sharply. That does not indicate good things about Wimbledon. Having said that, looking at the field we have now, he could just do enough to get a not-so-bad seeding at Wimbledon. And with the help of the seedings-system and some luck, he draws the easiest challenge at QF and Djokovic in the semis or something like that and we have a game on the cards. Hopefully! And there is a lot of scope in the second half of the year, I guess better than ever, because he will be playing with minimum pressure on a lot of his favourite surfaces. We can definitely see a great indoor season again. I for one, don't think like many others anyone can become a lot older in 6 months or one year. His game is good any day probably its going to be like that for a couple more years. More than anything, Roger's fans can see one more season from him and it's the greatest relief I would think.

If Thiem doesn't make a huge jump in the very near future, I would start of think he is going to be more of a solid top 10 player than a slam winner. Kyrgios is not the one to jump forward and become an elite I feel but let's see. Looking at Zverev's physical development, I feel we should expect him to rise up early on in the career; not like Federer. If he takes time then maybe we should doubt him. I am expecting Raonic to do better things next year possibly he could have his best year now. His groundstrokes are improving however slowly it is. I hope he comes of age and gives us a more complete player in 2017. He took the world no. 1 to three-set TB few days ago. So, I think he is moving forward. I don't want to talk about Nishikori. Its unlikely that Cilic surprises again.

Looking forward to an exciting season of tennis.

 

[Carol]

Carol, have you seen how the others are playing right now (Novak in particular) ? That's why he of course has a chance to win big.

Yep, I see how the others are playing now but also before which was one of the reason why Novak looked like "superman" playing with all the confidence having around players with injuries or playing poorly (now it's his turn) and that's why is very difficult to see all the top players playing their best

 

[Carol]

Rafa practicing with different racket?

https://twitter.com/lizzyprose/status/801132410528272385

 

[isabelle]

13 winners and 30 unforced errors in 2 sets. Those are pathetic numbers and that is why not only Roger but also others have a chance to win a slam in 2017 if Novak continues to play like this. Those stats are from the WTF final, one of his favourite surfaces.

I don't think Nole's new level has somethnig to do with Federe's level....i don't think he can win a GS again, he's much too old and too slow even if Nole plays bad, a lot of guys have already beaten him in GS (Tsonga, Stakho, Gulbis, Milos etc...) and will probably do it again

 

[Front242]

13 winners and 30 unforced errors in 2 sets. Those are pathetic numbers and that is why not only Roger but also others have a chance to win a slam in 2017 if Novak continues to play like this. Those stats are from the WTF final, one of his favourite surfaces.

I don't think Nole's new level has somethnig to do with Federe's level....i don't think he can win a GS again, he's much too old and too slow even if Nole plays bad, a lot of guys have already beaten him in GS (Tsonga, Stakho, Gulbis, Milos etc...) and will probably do it again

If it wasn't for his knee this old man would've been in the Wimbledon final again. This is no ordinary old man.

 

[Kieran]

13 winners and 30 unforced errors in 2 sets. Those are pathetic numbers and that is why not only Roger but also others have a chance to win a slam in 2017 if Novak continues to play like this. Those stats are from the WTF final, one of his favourite surfaces.

I don't think Nole's new level has somethnig to do with Federe's level....i don't think he can win a GS again, he's much too old and too slow even if Nole plays bad, a lot of guys have already beaten him in GS (Tsonga, Stakho, Gulbis, Milos etc...) and will probably do it again

If it wasn't for his knee this old man would've been in the Wimbledon final again. This is no ordinary old man.

No, that's right. He's extraordinary for his age. He's had something extra added to his ordinary...

 

[Mile]

Interesting, we though in early of the year some new guys might come. Thiem, Zverev were nowhere much. So for next year, maybe more reliable.

Djoker probably did last time saw Bollywood and Chakra. Becker said Djoker didnt allow "family stuff" to be mentioned... so maybe next year, second baby or something might come. Unmarried Rafa might be back, i dont beleive in Fed, but do in Wawec, Delpo and Raonic. They might mix a thing.

Otherwise battle of Djoker and Muzza will be main spot.


P.S. But i still belive young guns will have to wait for all 2017. No Slams for them. Long era of sand and dust, yes.

 

[Front242]

I don't think Nole's new level has somethnig to do with Federe's level....i don't think he can win a GS again, he's much too old and too slow even if Nole plays bad, a lot of guys have already beaten him in GS (Tsonga, Stakho, Gulbis, Milos etc...) and will probably do it again

If it wasn't for his knee this old man would've been in the Wimbledon final again. This is no ordinary old man.

No, that's right. He's extraordinary for his age. He's had something extra added to his ordinary...

Nice try and politically correct doping insinuations but seriously, he doesn't win because of stamina, speed or strength. He's beating players with his serve and skillful shot making, none of which can be gained from a bottle or needle in the arse.

 

[the AntiPusher]

If it wasn't for his knee this old man would've been in the Wimbledon final again. This is no ordinary old man.

No, that's right. He's extraordinary for his age. He's had something extra added to his ordinary...

Nice try and politically correct doping insinuations but seriously, he doesn't win because of stamina, speed or strength. He's beating players with his serve and skillful shot making, none of which can be gained from a bottle or needle in the arse.

I thought KS told you bout ped

 

[Front242]

No, that's right. He's extraordinary for his age. He's had something extra added to his ordinary...

Nice try and politically correct doping insinuations but seriously, he doesn't win because of stamina, speed or strength. He's beating players with his serve and skillful shot making, none of which can be gained from a bottle or needle in the arse.

I thought KS told you bout ped

Told me what? Who mentioned Federer has had something extra added to his ordinary? Hint, it wasn't me.

 

[El Dude]

LOL at Kieran trying to troll Front and get him riled up.

Seriously, though, looking at the future is always about looking at possible narratives. This may be one of the few things that Carol and I agree on: there's no crystal ball, nothing certain.

What ALL narratives center on is what the Big Four do. Here are a few possible narratives:

1) Return of the Jedis...Andy stays strong and Novak regains form (although not 2015...not gonna happen), and the two engage in a year-long dogfight, swapping #1 back and forth. Meanwhile, Rafa and Roger have a resurgence and both make the Big Two a Big Three at different points in the season: Rafa in clay, Roger from grass season on. Rafa and Roger finish #3-4 in some order. In this narrative, 2017 is the Indian Summer of the Big Four, and the last time they all finish in the top 4.

2) Big Two Reign Supreme...but Fedal fades. Same as above, but Rafa continues to struggle and Roger can't throw off the rust and starts submitting to Father Time.

3) End of an Era...Andy's rise to #1 was the last reign of the Big Four, completely the cycle. He and Novak remain elite players, but both show weaknesses and while Rafa and Roger might have their moments, the trajectory of decline is clear. By the end of the year it is clear they no longer rule the roost - they've been upset numerous times, the young players have gotten better, and a Slam or two has been won by someone other than the Big Four.

Those are three major possible narratives, and there are numerous variations between. But I think those are the three basic possibilities.

Now if I had to bet, I think the chances of the three happening are roughly 40/40/20%. It may even be that 1 happens in 2017, 2 happens in 2018, and 3 in 2019...that's probably what I'd bet on.