Is Federer safe for London (WTF)?

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Federer will qualify for London

Yes, it is close. But, let us be patient especially if we are calling it official.

Remember projecting Florida in presidential election when Gore and Bush contested.

 

[drm025]

RE: Federer will qualify for London

Yes, it is close. But, let us be patient especially if we are calling it official.

Remember projecting Florida in presidential election when Gore and Bush contested.

Yes, you are right, official is not the right word. Sorry!!

 

[isabelle]

Birdie qualified, 2 players still have to qualify. I bet for Youngderer and Richie

 

[herios]

Birdie qualified, 2 players still have to qualify. I bet for Youngderer and Richie

Make it 3, because Murray will not play.

 

[tented]

While theoretically possible, I don't think Haas has a serious chance at this point.

It's really down to Federer, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga, and maybe Raonic.

 

[Moxie]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

 

[tented]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

I noticed that, too, in the draw. Big match for them in terms of the Race to London. I picked Gasquet, only because I don't know what to expect out of Tsonga after having been off for a while.

 

[tented]

If Roger loses today, I think he needs to make the final in Paris to reach the next cutoff. Is that right?

 

[masterclass]

If he had lost today, he might have needed a semifinal to be sure of qualifying, but that question is moot now with him in the Basel final

Current Live Race points, which would also reflect a Federer Basel loss in the final:
3445 Federer
3150 Wawrinka
3120 Gasquet
3055 Tsonga
2770 Raonic
2415 Haas

Paris projections:
.............R64(10).....R32(45)......R16(90)......QF(180).....SF(360).....F(600).....W(1000)
Federer.....3455..........3490.............3535.............3625.............3805.........4045..........4445
Wawrinka.3160..........3195.............3240.............3330.............3510........3750..........4150
Gasquet...3130..........3165.............3210.............3300.............3480........3720..........4120
Tsonga....3065..........3100.............3145.............3235.............3415.........3655..........4055
Raonic.....2780..........2815.............2860.............2950.............3130.........3370..........3770
Haas........2425..........2460.............2505.............2595.............2775.........3015..........3415


If Federer wins the Basel final, he is assured of a spot with 3645 points (add 200 to all his points above) without playing in Paris, because only 2 players can reach a final and possibly surpass Federer, and that would automatically give him the last spot.

If Federer loses the Basel final, then the projections are as above. For Federer not to qualify, due to the Paris draw, Raonic must win in Paris and beat Gasquet in the semifinal, and Wawrinka would have to either advance to the final and Federer would have to lose prior to the semifinal, or Federer would have to lose prior to the round of 16 and then Wawrinka would only need to make it to the semifinal.

Chances of this happening? Pretty slim I think.

Oh, as one can see, Tommy Haas can no longer surpass Federer, though he still could potentially qualify with a win.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Iona16]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

I think Tsonga is a safer bet. He seems to thrive in front of a home crowd. Gasquet feels the pressure.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Now all we need is Federer and Nadal in the same pool so Nadal can improve his indoor h2h.

 

[Kieran]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

I think Tsonga is a safer bet. He seems to thrive in front of a home crowd. Gasquet feels the pressure.

I dunno. I watched the FO semi with Tsonga and Ferrer and it was the most yella-bellied show I'd seen in years. Tsonga actually made me feel like puking he was so afraid...

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Most people are afraid of puke. Ferrer is a very good claycourter anyway. Tsonga, not at all. Ferrer has a way of making a fool out of big-hitters on the clay. But its true, French players generally don't play well at home. I don't think playing at home is a good thing in tennis. Hewitt and Rafter both struggled at the AO too, especially Rafter (although that was partially due to the surface being slower than the US).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now that Federer has lost in the finals of Basel, he is still not officially qualified.
I am not going to bother to describe the scenario under which he will not qualify
and bore you all to death.

However, Federer is in control of his destiny. He needs to win one match in
Paris to officially qualify for the WTF, independent of what other contenders
may do. That will be the R32 match (1st match for Fed as he has a bye in
R64). He will be playing that against the winner of Youzhny and Anderson.

Finally, even if he loses that match, he may qualify; but it depends
on what other contenders do.

Also, Tommy Haas cannot surpass Federer anymore, although
he may still qualify. The only players who can surpass Federer
are Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga and Raonic.

Although not official, the most likely qualifiers will be Fed, Wawrinka
and winner of Gasquet vs. Tsonga match in Paris (which I predict/hope
to be Tsonga).

p.s. This post is edited to remove inaccuracies caused by my obsession
with Fed qualifying. Ability to qualify is not the same as ability to
surpass Federer. There are more players who have a theoretical shot at
qualifying and is not limited to Fed, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga and Raonic.

 

[tented]

Now that Federer has lost in the finals of Basel, he is still not officially qualified.
I am not going to bother to describe the scenario under which he will not qualify
and bore you all to death.

However, Federer is in control of his destiny. He needs to win one match in
Paris to officially qualify for the WTF, independent of what other contenders
may do. That will be the R32 match (1st match for Fed as he has a bye in
R64). He will be playing that against the winner of Youzhny and Anderson.

Finally, even if he loses that match, he may qualify; but it depends
on what other contenders do.

Also, Tommy Haas is officially out of running for WTF slot. The three slots
are now being contended by five players, Fed, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga
and Raonic.

Although not official, the most likely qualifiers will be Fed, Wawrinka
and winner of Gasquet vs. Tsonga match in Paris (which I predict/hope
to be Tsonga).

GSM,

Thank you again for all of your contributions to this thread, and for helping to keep everyone abreast of the various scenarios. Don't worry about boring people to death. If certain users are bored, then they don't have to read it. I'm not bored by it, and I'm sure plenty of others aren't, either.

 

[Riotbeard]

Now that Federer has lost in the finals of Basel, he is still not officially qualified.
I am not going to bother to describe the scenario under which he will not qualify
and bore you all to death.

However, Federer is in control of his destiny. He needs to win one match in
Paris to officially qualify for the WTF, independent of what other contenders
may do. That will be the R32 match (1st match for Fed as he has a bye in
R64). He will be playing that against the winner of Youzhny and Anderson.

Finally, even if he loses that match, he may qualify; but it depends
on what other contenders do.

Also, Tommy Haas is officially out of running for WTF slot. The three slots
are now being contended by five players, Fed, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga
and Raonic.

Although not official, the most likely qualifiers will be Fed, Wawrinka
and winner of Gasquet vs. Tsonga match in Paris (which I predict/hope
to be Tsonga).

Thanks GSM!

I hope Richie and Stan qualify, both have had good years. Milos has a bunch of WTFs in his future I believe, and I think Tsonga will play a few more also, can't necessarily say the same for the others.

 

[Iona16]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

I think Tsonga is a safer bet. He seems to thrive in front of a home crowd. Gasquet feels the pressure.

I dunno. I watched the FO semi with Tsonga and Ferrer and it was the most yella-bellied show I'd seen in years. Tsonga actually made me feel like puking he was so afraid...

To be fair that was a very poor crowd. When Tsonga walked out for his match the stadium was empty. He needs a crowd to feed off and they didn't deliver for him. I've seen Tsonga 4 times in Paris and the crowds for those matches were amazing. The best one was against Roddick at the Paris masters. The atmosphere was electric.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

From ATP website.

Emirates ATP Race To London Update
With Andy Murray's withdrawal, three of the eight slots remain up for grabs. This is how the remaining contenders stack up in their quest to qualify as of 28 October...

Position Player Points

7 Roger Federer 3,445
8 Stanislas Wawrinka 3,150
9 Richard Gasquet 3,120
10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3,055
11 Milos Raonic 2,770
12 Tommy Haas* 2,425
13 Nicolas Almagro* 2,200
14 Mikhail Youzhny* 2,135


*Must win Paris to have a chance to qualify

 

[Kieran]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

I think Tsonga is a safer bet. He seems to thrive in front of a home crowd. Gasquet feels the pressure.

I dunno. I watched the FO semi with Tsonga and Ferrer and it was the most yella-bellied show I'd seen in years. Tsonga actually made me feel like puking he was so afraid...

To be fair that was a very poor crowd. When Tsonga walked out for his match the stadium was empty. He needs a crowd to feed off and they didn't deliver for him. I've seen Tsonga 4 times in Paris and the crowds for those matches were amazing. The best one was against Roddick at the Paris masters. The atmosphere was electric.

It was a French Open semi - he shouldn't need the crowd to deliver for him. He ducked it. But I fancy him to do well this week, ideal conditions. He might even upset a big name!

 

[tented]

Gasquet and Tsonga are on track to meet in the 3rd round in Paris. Jo-Wil is behind Richard by 65 points, so they could fight it out directly. (I picked Tsonga, btw.)

I think Tsonga is a safer bet. He seems to thrive in front of a home crowd. Gasquet feels the pressure.

I dunno. I watched the FO semi with Tsonga and Ferrer and it was the most yella-bellied show I'd seen in years. Tsonga actually made me feel like puking he was so afraid...

To be fair that was a very poor crowd. When Tsonga walked out for his match the stadium was empty. He needs a crowd to feed off and they didn't deliver for him. I've seen Tsonga 4 times in Paris and the crowds for those matches were amazing. The best one was against Roddick at the Paris masters. The atmosphere was electric.

It was a French Open semi - he shouldn't need the crowd to deliver for him. He ducked it. But I fancy him to do well this week, ideal conditions. He might even upset a big name!

Yeah, he should have been able to handle this no matter what. I do find it odd, however, that the stadium was so sparsely populated for a Grand Slam semifinal, which featured a Frenchman, playing in Paris.