Is Djokovic a threat to Federer's 17?

[brokenshoelace]

To surpass Rafa is going to be difficult but surpass Federer I'd say impossible

He's almost certain to surpass Nadal. He's already on 12, are we really to believe he's not going to win 3 more by the time he retires? In the past two years alone, he's made the final of 7 slams and won 5 of them.

 

[masterclass]

At the start of 2014, Rafael Nadal was #1 in the world and had just won his 13th major at the US Open at the age of 27+.
At the time, I remember everyone talking about him going past Federer assuming going past Sampras was practically in the bag.
He tied Sampras with his 14 major after his last RG victory at age 28 that same year in his 834th match of his career on the ATP tour, but that's been it for awhile.

Novak Djokovic won his 12th major at Roland Garros this past June, completing his milestone career slam at age 29, after 879 matches played on tour.

Things change fast in tennis, especially after the age of 29-30.

Let's see him get past Sampras/Nadal, then maybe we can talk Federer.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Carol]

He's almost certain to surpass Nadal. He's already on 12, are we really to believe he's not going to win 3 more by the time he retires? In the past two years alone, he's made the final of 7 slams and won 5 of them.

Yeah but it doesn't mean that he is going to win two or three more GS and Rafa not one

 

[masterclass]

Here are a few more data points and comparisons for what they are worth:

Stan Wawrinka is a bit of an anomaly, 31+ years old, over 2 years older than Novak, but he has only played 677 matches - 200 matches less, about 2-3 years worth of matches, or to put it another way, about the same # of matches that Novak had when he lost to Stan at the 2014 Australian Open, or when Federer won at 2007 Basel not long after winning his 12th major at the 2007 US Open!

As stated previously, Novak had played 879 matches when he won his 12th this year at Roland Garros. Roger Federer had played 850 matches when he beat Murray at the 2010 Australian Open for his 16th major. But then he had a dry spell as Nadal and Djokovic gobbled up all the majors from RG 2010 to RG 2012, and finally won his 17th at Wimbledon 2012 in his 1045th match which I believe is the highest number of matches to win a major of any player since the early Open Era and Rosewall.

Novak has now played 894 matches, but his advantage is that there are no 24 to 26 year old players the likes of Nadal and himself as Roger had between RG 2010 - RG 2012. However, some tough players capable of winning majors are still in the mix, like Murray (780 matches), Wawrinka, Cilic (578 matches), and the underplayed due to injury Del Potro (only 474 matches played), and perhaps some younger players might finally rise up in the next few months. We just never know.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Mastoor]

Novak's toe nail healing quick enough to play in an exhibition is nothing short of a miracle. And I don't use that term lightly.

I think @Moxie mentioned, you are fit to run NY marathon as soon as your nail falls off. It will be 11 days after the naill was lost and we are yet to see if No1e will be fit to play. I hope he will be.

 

[DarthFed]

He's almost certain to surpass Nadal. He's already on 12, are we really to believe he's not going to win 3 more by the time he retires? In the past two years alone, he's made the final of 7 slams and won 5 of them.

I'm actually surprised you think this is a near given. Djokovic is going to be 30 by the time the next RG comes around. I think the next AO will be telling. If he wins there, as he will be favored to do, then you got to like his chances at winning another major by the end of 2017 which would put him at 14. If he loses AO then the floodgates might be opened and all bets are off.

 

[Federberg]

I'm actually surprised you think this is a near given. Djokovic is going to be 30 by the time the next RG comes around. I think the next AO will be telling. If he wins there, as he will be favored to do, then you got to like his chances at winning another major by the end of 2017 which would put him at 14. If he loses AO then the floodgates might be opened and all bets are off.

I agree. It can stop suddenly, and at any time

 

[Mary]

I'm actually surprised you think this is a near given. Djokovic is going to be 30 by the time the next RG comes around. I think the next AO will be telling. If he wins there, as he will be favored to do, then you got to like his chances at winning another major by the end of 2017 which would put him at 14. If he loses AO then the floodgates might be opened and all bets are off.

I agree. And his health will be the deciding factor. He desperately needs to get his serve back. In his favour of course Fed and Nadal and Murray are in same age group all with injury issues. Stan is inconsistent and older too although probably the fittest. I thought Thiem might be a threat but injured too. Time for some of the younger players to step up.
What ever happens I see Novak ax a fabulous player and one of the all time greats.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm actually surprised you think this is a near given. Djokovic is going to be 30 by the time the next RG comes around. I think the next AO will be telling. If he wins there, as he will be favored to do, then you got to like his chances at winning another major by the end of 2017 which would put him at 14. If he loses AO then the floodgates might be opened and all bets are off.

He will be 30 but there's no sign of him slowing down (unlike Rafa) and the tour's in a really bad shape so there are very few who can actually stop him. Nadal is unlikely to win another slam and I'd be shocked if Djokovic doesn't win 3 slams for the rest of his career. Think about that... He's got at worst what, 5 years to win 3 slams. I'd put a lot of money on this being a given.

 

[DarthFed]

You are right about the tour and lack of young talent right now being a potential big help to him. The young guns were hyped big at the start of the year but it looks like at least another year before Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios, etc. are going to become relative, if at all.

But even given that I'd say it's more likely he has 3 years left of decent chances. In 5 years we are talking about him at Roger's age now with a much lesser serve and not as much of an attacking game to make up for the drop in movement and stamina. And with as much as some people think Roger has done great in his 30's he has won diddly squat at slams since he turned 31. If Nole doesn't have 14 at the end of next year I'd say he finishes with 15 at the very max.

 

[Moxie]

You are right about the tour and lack of young talent right now being a potential big help to him. The young guns were hyped big at the start of the year but it looks like at least another year before Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios, etc. are going to become relative, if at all.

But even given that I'd say it's more likely he has 3 years left of decent chances. In 5 years we are talking about him at Roger's age now with a much lesser serve and not as much of an attacking game to make up for the drop in movement and stamina. And with as much as some people think Roger has done great in his 30's he has won diddly squat at slams since he turned 31. If Nole doesn't have 14 at the end of next year I'd say he finishes with 15 at the very max.

The tour certainly looks in better shape this year than it did at the beginning of last. I think folks should make sure they read masterclass's posts about number of matches played by various players, and Novak in particular. His slide might not be as precipitous as Nadal's, but the "post-30" rule doesn't look so much like it doesn't apply to him as it did a few months ago. (I understand he's not 30 yet, but he's got one more Major before he hits the mark.) I have said before that not being able to see what prevents him (or anyone) from a lot more Majors or significant milestones is rather a failure of imagination. No one saw Novak going out 3rd round at Wimbledon, much less to Querrey. Losing in Rio to Del Potro and Stan at the USO final are more understandable, but still they happened. I do think Kyrgios could be ripe next year, and Thiem, too, particularly for spoiling. Zverev is young, but he's ambitious and could also be a spoiler. And, as to @masterclass's point, Del Potro has way fewer matches and is very dangerous. While Stan is older, he has fewer matches under his belt, too. IF Djokovic comes back to full force, and gets his serve under control, and stays healthy (body and mind,) he's got a good chance of being the biggest obstacle, perhaps even for 3 more years. Certainly for the next year +. However, it's not all up to him. He looked vulnerable this summer, and, as with Federer and Nadal, when the aura drops a bit, spoilers can fancy their chances.

That said, it's hard not to see Djokovic getting 2-3 more. 5-6 to catch or pass Roger, I think would be super-human at this point, or the rest of the field would have to have rolled over.

 

[britbox]

Motivation might play a huge factor here... we'll see how Novak responds to Murray's assault on the Number One ranking.

 

[DarthFed]

I think it was Billie or a different poster that recently said losing the number one rank at the end of the year or early on next year might be good for Novak to get his focus back and I agree with that viewpoint. I also think it is likely that Murray gets the #1 either this year or early next year. Nole struggled after RG this year but up to that point he won 2 majors and 3 MS events so that's a ton of points to defend.

 

[Mary]

I think it was Billie or a different poster that recently said losing the number one rank at the end of the year or early on next year might be good for Novak to get his focus back and I agree with that viewpoint. I also think it is likely that Murray gets the #1 either this year or early next year. Nole struggled after RG this year but up to that point he won 2 majors and 3 MS events so that's a ton of points to defend.

I think pressure and physical complaints have been a big factor. Despite great success early in the season Novak had the eye infection which clearly affected him a lot. When he played Davis Cup just after that he looked exhausted and ill. Then there was the pay discrimination furore and match fixing stuff going on. Although he won IW, Miami and Madrid I think these things must have at the very least irritated him immensely and added to the pressure. And it is evident that there is an injury and that he has been playing in pain which has affected his serve.

I think he needs time to recover, regroup and decide what he wants to achieve. He has the game and the mental strength if he can regain fitness and confidence. But it will come down to how much he wants to win and if he is willing to pay the price of taking the pressure that goes with the no 1 position. Murray may get no 1 but I don't this he is anything like the player Novak is at his best or even second best. And Murray can be frail mentally and physically.

Anyone got views on Novak changing coach? Have heard rumours of Brad Gilbert?

 

[shawnbm]

I have not rumors of Gilbert, but I write to say that I think more along the lines of Broken Shoelace--much will depend on the AO in January as that will likely have a ripple effect throughout 2017. IF he wins that again (and he has owned it for years), then I think the money will be on him to pass Sampras and Nadal and reach 15. It is becoming harder to envision getting to 18 after the last half of last year, his marriage and family life, his immense success, his age and his concession that the drive is not what it once was. Who can he be faulted for feeling this way? He has had great success.

 

[Mary]

I have not rumors of Gilbert, but I write to say that I think more along the lines of Broken Shoelace--much will depend on the AO in January as that will likely have a ripple effect throughout 2017. IF he wins that again (and he has owned it for years), then I think the money will be on him to pass Sampras and Nadal and reach 15. It is becoming harder to envision getting to 18 after the last half of last year, his marriage and family life, his immense success, his age and his concession that the drive is not what it once was. Who can he be faulted for feeling this way? He has had great success.

I would love to see him win the AO again and come back strong. Already the game seems less vibrant without an on form Novak. But as you say I wouldn't fault him at all if he felt enough is enough. I think the whole lifestyle with constant travel, pressure and invasive media is pretty grim and damaging to family life.

 

[Carol]

He will be 30 but there's no sign of him slowing down (unlike Rafa) and the tour's in a really bad shape so there are very few who can actually stop him. Nadal is unlikely to win another slam and I'd be shocked if Djokovic doesn't win 3 slams for the rest of his career. Think about that... He's got at worst what, 5 years to win 3 slams. I'd put a lot of money on this being a given.

Wow, 'thanks' for those 'positive' words about Nadal but I hope that you will be completely wrong about those predictions

 

[Carol]

I would love to see him win the AO again and come back strong. Already the game seems less vibrant without an on form Novak. But as you say I wouldn't fault him at all if he felt enough is enough. I think the whole lifestyle with constant travel, pressure and invasive media is pretty grim and damaging to family life.

Federer seems to manage well his lifestyle at least aparentely and I think he does

 

[brokenshoelace]

Wow, 'thanks' for those 'positive' words about Nadal but I hope that you will be completely wrong about those predictions

I hope I'm wrong as well.

 

[Mary]

Federer seems to manage well his lifestyle at least aparentely and I think he does

To me tennis this year is just not the same, I have loved watching Nadal, Fed and Novak. It was brilliant having them all playing great tennis for the past few years. I am hoping that all three find their fitness and form next year. Thev game needs them badly. There are some good younger players of course but some of them are already showing signs of repeated injury and or fatigue eg Edmunds, Thiem. But I don't see anyone with a game to rival the three great ones.

Re Feds lifestyle, I don't know how he does it! I think his wife totally devotes herself to his interests and the children whereas Jelena has a demanding business role in Novak's foundation. And the press tends to support him whereas they misreport and criticize Novak continually - at least they do here in the UK. But even so Federer handles the life brilliantly well.