Is Djokovic a threat to Federer's 17?

[britbox]

Hey @MikeOne - good to see you back. Any of these other young guns catching your eye? Zverev is looking like a hot prospect but he's probably a couple of years away from this conversation.

Agree that the landscape is looking less treacherous for Novak but still plenty of question marks... if he bags a calendar grand slam then I'd probably put him at the top the pile, even if he doesn't surpass 17.

 

[Carol]

I think Djoker can get to 17 in next 3 years but it's difficult to predict. I can see him winning 3-4 this year, 2-3 next year and a couple after 2017 but things can change fast. Fed's game was built for longevity and at one point he was on pace for like 20 slams but has ended up winning 1 slam since turning 30? Any small injury can derail Novak from breaking the slam record and youngsters can all of sudden start beating him. Now comparing Fed and Nole, Fed's latter years coincided with peak Nadal and rising Djoker and Murray whereas Nole isn't facing such threats as Fed did. Thiem and Nick K. are probably the most talented youngsters but i have doubts that they will be able to beat Novak at slams in next 2-3 years. Of the old guard, Nadal is having problems and so is Fed, Murray and Stan are threats but Nole can beat them more often than not.

I do think Nole is more complete than Fed and this may ultimately be reflected in total slam count. Federer had more weapons but more weaknesses. Nadal always had a very effective game against Federer but not against Nole. I think only an on fire Stan has the type of game to give Novak problems on 2 of the 4 slams (AO, FO - slower courts) but he's older than Nole and very streaky.

Nadal had a very effective game against Novak before 2011 but also in 2013 until the AO 2014 when right after he started through his bad mentally patch and he played bad against anyone and not just against Novak

 

[MikeOne]

Nadal had a very effective game against Novak before 2011 but also in 2013 until the AO 2014 when right after he started through his bad mentally patch and he played bad against anyone and not just against Novak

Nadal's problem with Novak has been Novak, not Nadal's mental patches or dip in level. Novak had problems early on when he used to retire from matches and struggle physically against Nadal during longer matches. Once Novak got fitter and mentally stronger, Nadal was in a lot of trouble. I strongly believe Rafa was at his peak in 2011; after all, he won FO, made finals of IW, Miami, MC, Rome, Wimbledon, US Open and who beat him? People claim Nadal was at his peak in 08, yet he was pedestrian on hard courts, getting bullied by Ferrer at US Open? In 2011, Rafa was coming off 3 slam wins the year before and full of confidence. I believe Nadal was better in 11 than he was in 08 and thus why he made so many big finals, only one man beat him and he was possessed. In 2013, Nadal was also at his best but i believe Nole struggled after that SF loss to Nadal at FO. Novak was up in the 5th set and made some bad errors, Nadal capitalized and raised his level. After the FO, i think Novak really struggled, it was a tough loss and Nadal's win helped Nadal put together a great streak. I do agree that Nadal's level clearly tapered off around 2014-2015 but he has been coming back, playing better lately.

Novak's run in 2015-16 even eclipses Federer's top run and at his best is probably most completer ever..

 

[MikeOne]

Hey @MikeOne - good to see you back. Any of these other young guns catching your eye? Zverev is looking like a hot prospect but he's probably a couple of years away from this conversation.

Agree that the landscape is looking less treacherous for Novak but still plenty of question marks... if he bags a calendar grand slam then I'd probably put him at the top the pile, even if he doesn't surpass 17.

none of the other young guns have really impressed me yet, too early to tell. I like Thiem's game but it remains to be seen how good he really is. He reminds me a bit of Dimitrov - nice looking shots, decent athleticism, nice power but look at what happened with Dimitrov.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

none of the other young guns have really impressed me yet, too early to tell. I like Thiem's game but it remains to be seen how good he really is. He reminds me a bit of Dimitrov - nice looking shots, decent athleticism, nice power but look at what happened with Dimitrov.

Funny, but he doesn't remind me of Dimitrov at all. He has a fire in his belly and will bring his best tennis when he needs to win. We've had a chance to see a lot of him this year, and there were a few times where he was looking burned out, but never diffident like Grigor. Now that he is regularly getting to the business end of the week, we'll see him change his schedule accordingly.

It seems the young man has 'belief', and even when that's lacking, he still goes for his shots. Very un-Dimitrov of him. He was up 5-0 on Roger in the 2nd set when the nerves and a feisty Fed started chipping away at his resolve. He had two match points against him, and hit his way out of trouble, won the tiebreaker and the third set.

Afterward, he was very honest about how nervous he was, playing against Roger on his best surface. I think it's a pretty big milestone for the young man to have Fedal scalps. He has a 3-3 h2h against them (2-1 Fed, 1-2 Nadal). Grigor has a 0-12 h2h against them (0-5 Fed, 0-7 Nadal).

 

[DarthFed]

Funny, but he doesn't remind me of Dimitrov at all. He has a fire in his belly and will bring his best tennis when he needs to win. We've had a chance to see a lot of him this year, and there were a few times where he was looking burned out, but never diffident like Grigor. Now that he is regularly getting to the business end of the week, we'll see him change his schedule accordingly.

It seems the young man has 'belief', and even when that's lacking, he still goes for his shots. Very un-Dimitrov of him. He was up 5-0 on Roger in the 2nd set when the nerves and a feisty Fed started chipping away at his resolve. He had two match points against him, and hit his way out of trouble, won the tiebreaker and the third set.

Afterward, he was very honest about how nervous he was, playing against Roger on his best surface. I think it's a pretty big milestone for the young man to have Fedal scalps. He has a 3-3 h2h against them (2-1 Fed, 1-2 Nadal). Grigor has a 0-12 h2h against them (0-5 Fed, 0-7 Nadal).

It must be pointed out that Thiem beat them this year when they are both playing dreadful tennis. It'd be pretty weak if he didn't beat Roger these last two matches they've played.

I don't think Thiem will turn out like Dimitrov but I see Mike's point. It's easy to forget that just two years ago it seemed like Dimitrov was starting to fulfill his potential, making the QF's of Australia and SF's of Wimbledon and having serious chances against Nadal and Djokovic in each. That's why I'm holding the brakes on calling Thiem a future multi-slam winner. We've been burned in this regard for nearly a decade trying to pick out the next big thing.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

It must be pointed out that Thiem beat them this year when they are both playing dreadful tennis. It'd be pretty weak if he didn't beat Roger these last two matches they've played.

I don't think Thiem will turn out like Dimitrov but I see Mike's point. It's easy to forget that just two years ago it seemed like Dimitrov was starting to fulfill his potential, making the QF's of Australia and SF's of Wimbledon and having serious chances against Nadal and Djokovic in each. That's why I'm holding the brakes on calling Thiem a future multi-slam winner. We've been burned in this regard for nearly a decade trying to pick out the next big thing.

Lol! Never called him a future multi-slam winner. I'm just saying he's no Dimitrov.

 

[DarthFed]

Well if he doesn't end up being a multi-slam winner he is nothing big to be thought of. As it stands right now he is a good young talent who clearly still has a long ways to go.

 

[Carol]

Nadal's problem with Novak has been Novak, not Nadal's mental patches or dip in level. Novak had problems early on when he used to retire from matches and struggle physically against Nadal during longer matches. Once Novak got fitter and mentally stronger, Nadal was in a lot of trouble. I strongly believe Rafa was at his peak in 2011; after all, he won FO, made finals of IW, Miami, MC, Rome, Wimbledon, US Open and who beat him? People claim Nadal was at his peak in 08, yet he was pedestrian on hard courts, getting bullied by Ferrer at US Open? In 2011, Rafa was coming off 3 slam wins the year before and full of confidence. I believe Nadal was better in 11 than he was in 08 and thus why he made so many big finals, only one man beat him and he was possessed. In 2013, Nadal was also at his best but i believe Nole struggled after that SF loss to Nadal at FO. Novak was up in the 5th set and made some bad errors, Nadal capitalized and raised his level. After the FO, i think Novak really struggled, it was a tough loss and Nadal's win helped Nadal put together a great streak. I do agree that Nadal's level clearly tapered off around 2014-2015 but he has been coming back, playing better lately

Novak's run in 2015-16 even eclipses Federer's top run and at his best is probably most completer ever..

I agree that 2011 was a suppressive and great year of Novak and it's true that he beat Nadal several times but if you remember well or you would have the opportunity to watch those matches again you would see that Nadal struggled in most of those matches starting with his serve which was the worst that I remember and also making some bad errors which helped Novak to raise his level and confidence same like you say it happened in 2013. In one word, when a player is playing really well
the opponent always looks "struggled".
Rafa wasn't at his peak in 08 because he was only 21-22 year old (nobody is) and he still had some issues playing on HC. And yes, he was better in 2011 than 2008 because he was 3 years older and he was playing better on HC but like I said before his serve (main shot, ask Federer) never has helped him too much in that surface though he did superb in the USO 10 when he showed to the world that serving well he was almost unbeatable.
And after the AO 14 Novak wasn't his problem, everyone was until this year (not the beginning) that it seemed he was going out of his bad patch but unfortunately he got the wrist injury

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Well if he doesn't end up being a multi-slam winner he is nothing big to be thought of. As it stands right now he is a good young talent who clearly still has a long ways to go.

I agree he has a ways to go. I do like that he's teachable, seems earnest, and has shown stones that Dimitrov lacks.

 

[DarthFed]

I agree. He seems tougher mentally than Dimitrov and more ambitious. I think that's part of it for Dimitrov, he seems comfortable making millions and being a top 20-30 player (though he is not even that now). That doesn't seem to be the case for Thiem.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Funny, but he doesn't remind me of Dimitrov at all. He has a fire in his belly and will bring his best tennis when he needs to win. We've had a chance to see a lot of him this year, and there were a few times where he was looking burned out, but never diffident like Grigor. Now that he is regularly getting to the business end of the week, we'll see him change his schedule accordingly.

It seems the young man has 'belief', and even when that's lacking, he still goes for his shots. Very un-Dimitrov of him. He was up 5-0 on Roger in the 2nd set when the nerves and a feisty Fed started chipping away at his resolve. He had two match points against him, and hit his way out of trouble, won the tiebreaker and the third set.

Afterward, he was very honest about how nervous he was, playing against Roger on his best surface. I think it's a pretty big milestone for the young man to have Fedal scalps. He has a 3-3 h2h against them (2-1 Fed, 1-2 Nadal). Grigor has a 0-12 h2h against them (0-5 Fed, 0-7 Nadal).

I agree. I don't particularly like Thiem's game, but he has fire in his belly and he has what Dmitrov lacks; which is self-belief. Dmititrov, IMO, patterned his entire game around Federer's. That was his biggest mistake because although he can play like Federer, he can't think like Federer, and when he gets into tight situations he more often than not falls.

It would be the same if a player tried to play like Nadal, without Nadal's mindset, he'll just be a copy and never reach his own potential.

 

[Tennis Fan]

I agree that 2011 was a suppressive and great year of Novak and it's true that he beat Nadal several times but if you remember well or you would have the opportunity to watch those matches again you would see that Nadal struggled in most of those matches starting with his serve which was the worst that I remember and also making some bad errors which helped Novak to raise his level and confidence same like you say it happened in 2013. In one word, when a player is playing really well
the opponent always looks "struggled".
Rafa wasn't at his peak in 08 because he was only 21-22 year old (nobody is) and he still had some issues playing on HC. And yes, he was better in 2011 than 2008 because he was 3 years older and he was playing better on HC but like I said before his serve (main shot, ask Federer) never has helped him too much in that surface though he did superb in the USO 10 when he showed to the world that serving well he was almost unbeatable.
And after the AO 14 Novak wasn't his problem, everyone was until this year (not the beginning) that it seemed he was going out of his bad patch but unfortunately he got the wrist injury

That's how I see it too, Carol. But that's the beauty of Nadal. How many players can have that many majors with a congenital bone defect in their foot that almost precluded him from playing professional tennis at all. A guy who has been on and off the tour throughout his career? I find that simply amazing that any human can have that type of resilience and a great attitude simultaneously? It's hard to keep getting back up, but to do so consistently for over a decade is awe inspiring. I would love to have 1/10th of the resolves that Nadal has. That's why he's my favorite player forever. It's the way he conducts himself, not trophies and titles. That's only a small part of who Nadal is, IMO.

 

[Carol]

That's how I see it too, Carol. But that's the beauty of Nadal. How many players can have that many majors with a congenital bone defect in their foot that almost precluded him from playing professional tennis at all. A guy who has been on and off the tour throughout his career? I find that simply amazing that any human can have that type of resilience and a great attitude simultaneously? It's hard to keep getting back up, but to do so consistently for over a decade is awe inspiring. I would love to have 1/10th of the resolves that Nadal has. That's why he's my favorite player forever. It's the way he conducts himself, not trophies and titles. That's only a small part of who Nadal is, IMO.

Exactly Tennis Fan, Nadal is an extraordinary player since he started to play this sport. In spite of his foot which later gave him the problems to his knee (feet and knees are connecting) at his early age he beat the player that was at his peak and supposedly the GOAT. He has won 9 RG which according to the experts and players is the most difficult GS to win. He has made a super career even with a mediocre serve which helps so much to win on HC and grass and even that he has won multiples MS, 2 Wimbledon, 2 USO and 1 AO. He has the love and admiration for everybody but of course not for Roger's fans but if he would retire tomorrow he will be remind to be one of the best players of the tennis history and very difficult to beat some of his records.
Today the Tour is not the best, many players injured and also aging. The young ones? we'll see, there are many promises, but we should wait for this next future because until now they have won just 250 and maybe some 500 tournaments and that's all. Hope they will able to do better, otherwise this sport will lose many followers

 

[Tennis Fan]

Exactly Tennis Fan, Nadal is an extraordinary player since he started to play this sport. In spite of his foot which later gave him the problems to his knee (feet and knees are connecting) at his early age he beat the player that was at his peak and supposedly the GOAT. He has won 9 RG which according to the experts and players is the most difficult GS to win. He has made a super career even with a mediocre serve which helps so much to win on HC and grass and even that he has won multiples MS, 2 Wimbledon, 2 USO and 1 AO. He has the love and admiration for everybody but of course not for Roger's fans but if he would retire tomorrow he will be remind to be one of the best players of the tennis history and very difficult to beat some of his records.
Today the Tour is not the best, many players injured and also aging. The young ones? we'll see, there are many promises, but we should wait for this next future because until now they have won just 250 and maybe some 500 tournaments and that's all. Hope they will able to do better, otherwise this sport will lose many followers

So true, Carol. So many times people think that everyone is in it for the titles, prestige and status, but I look for excellence, defiance against the odds, and humanity. No one fits that bill for me like Rafa. I have yet to see Nadal disrespect other players, lash out, or try to intimidate others. He's happy, grounded and surely has far exceeded his expectations. You can't be a better person than he is. My greatest goal for my son is that he is a good person. I don't need titles, etc. for him. He can be a garbage man as far as I'm concerned. All I want is more humanity in the world; titles, trophies, and acronyms have never passed the test of time. Each time people have gotten ahead of themselves they've only eaten crow in the end. Those things are elusive and not worth a grain of salt, in my estimation. Rafa became my favorite the first time I saw him play, so titles were never the tipping point for me.

 

[Mastoor]

Do you mean that Roger is better player now than in his peaks years? really?

He hasn't been in good form since AO this year, but in 2015 and AO 2016 he played some amazing tennis. According to the man himself he is a better player now . What his ( mythomanic ) fans don't take into account is that in his peak except maybe Rafa on clay, Federer didn't have as strong opponent as Novak is now, so could be that he looked better player then and he was certainly more achieved then, but others improved a lot since then.

 

[DarthFed]

What amazing tennis is this you speak of? Last I checked Roger was ranked #3 at the end of last year (behind Murray!!) and the only thing of note he did was win Cincy. He also lost at slams to Seppi and got blown out at the French by Wawrinka. If he was playing half as well as you're suggesting he'd probably be at least a few thousand points ahead of Murray and still winning some big trophies. At the very least he'd be in practically every final as he was during his prime.

 

[Ricardo]

He hasn't been in good form since AO this year, but in 2015 and AO 2016 he played some amazing tennis. According to the man himself he is a better player now . What his ( mythomanic ) fans don't take into account is that in his peak except maybe Rafa on clay, Federer didn't have as strong opponent as Novak is now, so could be that he looked better player then and he was certainly more achieved then, but others improved a lot since then.

with all due respect (or lack of) to your insanely silly posts (as usual), i didn't know that you take Feds words for real now.... all of a sudden. I thought he also said the match is on his racquet when it comes to playing Nadal on clay? and you say 'except maybe Rafa on clay', well Rafa on clay is definitely better than Novak if he is 'proper' (not the watered down version that we see). Now you talk so highly of your idol while Fed only faced crap comp, guess what? Novak built half of his career out of beating Murray, half of all his slams (six) were won that way which is enough for a hall of fame career itself...not to mention all those semi's he beat Murray. Before you elevate Murray to something more than his real worth, i'll remind you that he's been a perennial loser against the big boys in big finals, except when Lendl was kind enough to take him in. while he never had a great forehand, he is a habitual whinger and wimp under pressure.

Ill simplify this for you about Murray, he's never beaten Fedal in a slam final and only beat Novak when Lendl loaned him a pair.....briefly

 

[Federberg]

What amazing tennis is this you speak of? Last I checked Roger was ranked #3 at the end of last year (behind Murray!!) and the only thing of note he did was win Cincy. He also lost at slams to Seppi and got blown out at the French by Wawrinka. If he was playing half as well as you're suggesting he'd probably be at least a few thousand points ahead of Murray and still winning some big trophies. At the very least he'd be in practically every final as he was during his prime.

Lol! According to @Mastoor Roger is quicker now than in 2007. I guess if you big up the old man's form now it makes Novak's performances look better? Personally Novak's current form is outstanding. We'll never know if it would be good enough to beat peak Federer or peak Nadal. But that's as it should be. After all no one knows how peak Sampras would do against the Rocket. Who cares?

 

[Billie]

If I remember correctly, just-turned-20 year old Novak Djokovic showed in Montreal in 2007 and beat: #3 and #2 players (Roddick and Nadal) in straight sets and topped it off with a win over #1 player (Federer) in the final, in consecutive days. And he was half a player than he is today and wasn't as nearly consistent as he's been from 2011. But yeah, we will never know.

Both Andy and Nole shot up the rankings in a year or two in 2006-2007 really quickly so I guess the competition wasn't as tough then either.

I haven't followed the grass tournaments but I read somewhere that Federer said that he thinks Nole can surpass him in major wins? Maybe it was in one of the pressers in Halle?