Indian Wells, BNP Paribas Open, Masters 1000

[Federberg]

Wondered same thing earlier and then I decided it has to mean I totally agree.

Ah! makes sense

 

[Front242]

If Roger plays like he did today then he'll lose in two sets to Delpo. Won't be the saddest thing in the world, as everyone like Juan Martin.

I don't mind Del Potro (dislike the sloth like movement between points though. Way too slow and annoying like Isner in that regard) but if Roger loses (and I think he will) it's a weak loss as Del Potro is nothing special for around 9 years now. Roger played him wrong past few times and played to Del Potro's forehand mostly. Very dumb. Needs to just make it a boring snooze fest by hitting non stop to his backhand like Nadal does to him and he'll make short work of him if he serves well. But I'm thinking Roger loses this one.

 

[El Dude]

That's a big generalisation. How do you know everyone likes Juan Martin? Have you been all around the world asking everybody? If so, how did you manage to ask people who aren't tennis fans & those who don't speak a language you speak? That would be a very interesting meeting. Lol.

Umm, OK.

 

[Moxie]

hmmm... Leif Shiras was just saying there are locker room rumours that Roger has a lower back problem. Really don't want to hear it. Get out there and win the whole thing. If he has a problem then, close it down until the grass court season after this. But first.. get 98!

Tennis Channel quoted Fabrice Santoro on speculating about that, during the match. But they also thought that Roger wouldn't be working so hard for it, if that were true. They think that's not the case.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I would not be upset if JMDP wins tomorrow (he is a nice guy) even though I want Roger to win. However, I think Roger will win tomorrow and do so in straight sets. At USO when JMDP won last year, Fed was compromised. So, too much should not be read into it. Also, now Roger will be used to the windy conditions. Further, Roger's match is not at 11 a.m. tomorrow. It will be at 1 or later. So, TMF would be fine tomorrow.

JMDP just won a 500 event and has reached the final here. So, he is definitely confident, has rhythm and on an upswing. But, I have not really watched full matches of JMDP recently. Can anyone who has been watching a lot of JMDP recently tell me as to whether his backhand has come to full strength or is he mostly slicing. If it is the later case, Fed should continuously attack his backhand (like an island boy did to Maestero himself) and at the same time hit to forehand once in a while to keep him honest.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Probably...It just worries me that he played in Holland this year. I wish he wins tomorrow and takes Miami off. Probably he won't.

Roger is committed to playing in Miami and he will do so independent of whether he wins or loses the final at IW (barring any injuries).
I am not actually worried. He has not played too many matches. Further he had a break the last two weeks. He is good to play in Miami.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In case folks are not aware, this is Roger's best start in an year winning 17 matches in a row since the beginning of the year.
Previous best was 16, which happened in 2006.

 

[MartyB]

If Roger plays like he did today then he'll lose in two sets to Delpo. Won't be the saddest thing in the world, as everyone like Juan Martin.

That was a match Fed should have lost didn't and won through guile resilience and experience. That should not be underestimated. If you think DelPo is a lock winning here I would rethink that.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

On paper Coric looked so easy opponent: #49, previous match (in 2015) an easy 6-1 6-2... Yet a tough battle today.
But Coric from 3y ago was a different player - 18 rather than 21. At this age players develop very fast. And they have big apparent swings of form, as someone noted. Still I did not expect today's match would be so even. As I said on paper, the difference between the abilities of #1 & #49 should be significant.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Fed will never say that because he respect every opponent but the numbers tell us this story: out of his 146 final runs, IW 2018 must be the easiest he's ever had. At every round, the draw resolved in his big favour, so that he faced low ranked opponents only. Every opponent was outside top 25. Two even outside 100. Finally a serious opponent Delpo comes in as the last hurdle (out of shape Raonic would've been much easier). The lucky draw resolves must have come to an end, as everything.
People are saying Fed is making history by beating his best year start record. But for me, it's not an indication of Fed's exeptional form but the weakness of the field: all big 4 gone and the rest out of shape, particularly in this tournament.

 

[Federberg]

Fed will never say that because he respect every opponent but the numbers tell us this story: out of his 146 final runs, IW 2018 must be the easiest he's ever had. At every round, the draw resolved in his big favour, so that he faced low ranked opponents only. Every opponent was outside top 25. Two even outside 100. Finally a serious opponent Delpo comes in as the last hurdle (out of shape Raonic would've been much easier). The lucky draw resolves must have come to an end, as everything.
People are saying Fed is making history by beating his best year start record. But for me, it's not an indication of Fed's exeptional form but the weakness of the field: all big 4 gone and the rest out of shape, particularly in this tournament.

I don’t think anyone is saying this is his best year form wise. It’s just a cold hard look at the numbers

 

[mrzz]

Can anyone who has been watching a lot of JMDP recently tell me as to whether his backhand has come to full strength or is he mostly slicing. If it is the later case, Fed should continuously attack his backhand (like an island boy did to Maestero himself) and at the same time hit to forehand once in a while to keep him honest.

I have watched a couple of hours of del Potro playing in the last weeks, even if not so many full matches as I would have liked (1.5 I guess), as highlights can be quite misleading (and long highlights from his matches I guess I have seen from all).

He is playing the best tennis he played in years, surely quite better than last year. Not 2009 level, sure, but he is on a constant evolution. If he is able to keep this pace of improvement, by USO time he will be one of the guys to really look for.

About the back hand, he still slices more than the average player, but part of this is now intentional. He can engage in rallies just driving it, and he can hit them quite hard again sometimes. There is still a limitation there, but now I would say is marginal. The quality of the slice increased as one would expect. On a different note he added the drop shot to his arsenal, but I guess he won't use much against a good defender as Federer (he used tons of it against KA in Acapulco).

The thing about the strategy you mentioned is that most players are doing this -- and as you see he has answers to it now. The strategy in itself I would say is inefficient, even if Federer would be the best guy to try it, as he has probably the best slice backhand on tour and could engage in those exchange for hours, being able to rip a winner from the bh side if the opportunity arises. But I do not think he will.

I think he will try to keep the match on a quick pace -- as del Potro is apparently struggling a bit with movement, and will use a combination of hitting hard and deep down the middle with sudden angles and variations of pace. He will also try to lure del Potro to the net.

Federer is now a much better strategist than he has ever been, but I do not think he can survive another display of UFE's as he did yesterday. Nothing would surprise me in this match, blowouts either side, a nervous competitive one as Federer's semi or a classic. In other words, I can jive all I want, fact is that I don't have a clue...

 

[Federberg]

^pretty much agree with most of this. Delpo can drive that backhand now. In some ways I think he’s better than in 2009 because he is much much better as a tennis brain. In 2009 he relied on his power on both sides. Now he can stay in a point on his backhand side and his forehand is quite possibly the most lethal shot in tennis at the moment. His real weakness remains his movement but that’s a relative thing as he moves far better than any other big guy. He is deceptively quick. It’s also worth pointing out that his net play is dramatically better these days. It’s the devil to pass the guy

 

[mrzz]

His real weakness remains his movement but that’s a relative thing as he moves far better than any other big guy. He is deceptively quick

True. His movement is hard to judge. You are right that it is deceptive, he is a sloth between points (as Front says) and then he suddenly runs like hell. I guess this sloth behavior is the price he pays for all the energy he spends running that big body around. And this stop and go rhythm is precisely what I think Federer will try to break. And also try to make him move backwards...

 

[Federberg]

True. His movement is hard to judge. You are right that it is deceptive, he is a sloth between points (as Front says) and then he suddenly runs like hell. I guess this sloth behavior is the price he pays for all the energy he spends running that big body around. And this stop and go rhythm is precisely what I think Federer will try to break. And also try to make him move backwards...

agreed

 

[herios]

JM gets a chance to win his first master title. I wish him good luck.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed started with Delbo in this tourney and is ending with Delpo.

p.s. Expect some commentator to steal this line.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tignor picked Fed to win when the draw was out. Today, he has changed his mind and is siding with JMDP. Thus, he has freed Fed of Tignor's curse.

 

[atttomole]

Tignor picked Fed to win when the draw was out. Today, he has changed his mind and is siding with JMDP. Thus, he has freed Fed of Tignor's curse.

Be careful, because Tignor has been right sometimes.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tribal Call: Come on out Feddies. Time to sing the tribal fight song.