Indian Wells - ATP : Predictions and bets

[Moxie]

Figuring out odds reminded me of this. I hope you find it as funny as I did:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...0&spJobID=881279288&spReportId=ODgxMjc5Mjg4S0

 

[Bert]

Figuring out odds reminded me of this. I hope you find it as funny as I did:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/26/diagnostic-exam-do-you-have-math-anxiety?mbid=nl_Sunday Longreads (30)&CNDID=22825911&spMailingID=8654422&spUserID=MTI3ODcxMjgwMjUwS0&spJobID=881279288&spReportId=ODgxMjc5Mjg4S0

Good one !

 

[Bert]

Round #3 / Day #5

8 matches :

DelBonis / Murray (13.1 / 1.02)
Tomic / Raonic (3.51 / 1.29)
Goffin / Pella (1.32 / 3.28)
Gasquet / Dolgopolov (1.58 / 2.34)
Mayer / Cilic (3.17 / 1.33)
Berdych / Coric (1.23 / 3.97)
Monfils / Ramos-Vinolas (1.29 / 3.44)
Kuznetsov / Wawrinka (4.24 / 1.21)

For our friendly competition, I bet 10$ on Cilic, 10$ on Wawrinka and 10$ on Berdych.

 

[Moxie]

I'm not a very bold bettor, but I will suddenly be all about the odds. I'll put $10 on Coric, $10 on Ramos-Viñiolas, and $5 on Pella.

 

[Bert]

I'm not a very bold bettor, but I will suddenly be all about the odds. I'll put $10 on Coric, $10 on Ramos-Viñiolas, and $5 on Pella.

Not a bad idea, 1/3 may reimburse your investment. For Ramos-Vinolas and Pella, I think the matches could be very tight. For Coric, I am less sure, he has been very irregular recently.
I won't be surprised if you get some money back for these picks.

 

[britbox]

Bert - I don't expect Delbonis to win, but are those the actual odds? 13.1 ? He's ranked #53, I know he's more of a clay guy, but he can still swing a racquet!

 

[britbox]

I think Berdych handles Coric comfortably... so I'll stick $30 on the big man. $20 on Cilic to take out Mayer.

 

[Moxie]

I'm probably betting a little with the heart on Coric, but hey, it's only (virtual) money.

 

[Bert]

Bert - I don't expect Delbonis to win, but are those the actual odds? 13.1 ? He's ranked #53, I know he's more of a clay guy, but he can still swing a racquet!

Yes these are the actual odds. That's what I didn't detail in my post explaining odds. The odds are also affected by the amount of money bet on each player. If you are a bookmaker and you think that the chances to win the match are 80% Murray and 20% Delbonis you can set odds such as 1.25 / 5. But if 90 % of the total bet money is put on Murray and 10% on Delbonis, if Murray wins you'll lose money. So the odds are modified to be sure that the bookmaker makes money whatever the result, they do not reflect the winning chances anymore.
It happens very often with top players. It even happens on some matches that you can only pick the underdog. That aslo pushes people to go to alternative bets such as winner+number of sets / winner + game gap between players which are more risky.

And you are 100% right, Delbonis is not a bad player : 5-5 in the third !! We will regret not to bet on him

 

[ClayDeath]

tough loss for Andy.

it is a huge upset from my vantage point.

 

[ClayDeath]

looks like a walk in the park for Djokovic to me.

Andy is out. Roger is going to be training on clay.

and Rafa is irrelevant in the sport for the last 2 years.


Djokovic can beat this field while dragging behind him a large farm animal on a steel chain. even then he is too much for this field.

fortune favors those who work like hell night and day on their game and their fitness anyway.

 

[Moxie]

Obviously, if you think this is a walk in the park for Djokovic, you weren't watching him play last night. Terrible first serve %, many UFEs, unfocused....He can probably beat most of the field like that anyway, but it won't be a smooth ride.

 

[Bert]

Our results today :

@britbox : +6.9 + 6.6 + 85.6 = 99.1 $
@Moxie : -10 -10 - 5 + 106 = 81 $
@Bert : +3.3 + 2.1 +2.3 + 102.1 =110.8 $

 

[Moxie]

OK, I guess I need to take a day without going for long shots. Thanks, Bert!

 

[Bert]

Round #3 / Day #6

Johnson - Nishikori (5.33 / 1.14)
Zverev - Simon (2.31 / 1.59)
Isner -Mannarino (1.21 / 4.2)
Lopez - BautistaAgut (2.4 / 1.55)
Nadal - Verdasco (1.28 / 3.6)
Thiem - Sock (1.6 / 2.29)
Querrey - Tsonga (2.32 / 1.58)
Djokovic - Kohlschreiber (1.1 / 6.49)

I will bet 10$ on BautistaAgut and 10$ on Zverev.
Bautista Agut does a great season, has won Auckland and Sofia tournaments, defeating players such as Tsonga, Cilic, Troicki, Isner ans losing in 5 against Berdych at Australian Open.
Zverev can definitely upset Simon. Simon did not impressed me at all since the start of season and even his wins on Pospisil are not 100 % convincing.

 

[britbox]

Odds are too good on Zverev to pass up and he's my favourite young gun, $20 on him.

I'll add $30 on Isner. Not too confident about any of the others.

 

[Moxie]

I'll put $20 on Rafa, $10 each on Isner and Zverev.

 

[Denis]

I'll join in. 10 on Zverev, 20 on Thiem.

We start with 100?

 

[britbox]

I'll join in. 10 on Zverev, 20 on Thiem.

We start with 100?

Yes

 

[Moxie]

Welcome in, Denis. It's our own small "racquet bracket". All good fun.