Indian Wells - ATP : Predictions and bets

[britbox]

Thanks @Bert. Good fun.

$10 - Rosol $10 Istomin $10 Young

 

[Moxie]

Pella managed to defeat Edmund. If I had to bet on this one, I think I would have picked Edmund. He was one break up in the third before collapsing.

I'm glad you didn't bet on this one, because I was going to suggest betting on Pella. He has been trending of late. And I think one should be careful of "ghettoizing" clay courters. He is just off a good run, and Edmund is not so much. Confidence is everything. I wouldn't discount those clay guys who just did reasonably well in the Golden Swing.

 

[Bert]

Thanks @Moxie ! I think you are 100 % right, nowadays players are more polyvalent and there are less and less players that are only bankable on clay. I remember the first time I saw Berasategui playing, maybe I still have this clay court player cliche in mind

Join us and pick some players for next round. It is only virtual bets, there is nothing to lose, this is just to have some fun and most of all this a good pretext to talk about the coming matches.

 

[Moxie]

Bert, you get "word-of-the-day" for 'polyvalent.' If you were standing next to me, I'd have handed you 20 bucks, or bought you a drink.

You are by far not the only person who buys into the notion of traditional clay-courters or clay-court countries and underrates them on hards. To me, it's one of the most confounding prejudices in tennis, and if you don't look beyond it, you will bet poorly. I'll make some picks, then. I am no bettor, and I don't understand odds at all. But I'm always game to join in the fun.

 

[Bert]

Round #2 / Day #3

I won't have time to go in details into the matches today. Big day today, we play our inter-clubs championship semi-final, wish me good luck, surprised that there are no posts on it on this forum The odds are not for us but we are brave

BIG BIG game : Berdych - Del Potro !!! On a normal day, I would have gone for Berdych, as I think DelPotro needs a bit more time to be back at this level but Berdych has been injured the last few days, so tough pick
Pella - Cuevas should be interesting / Goffin - Tiafoe too. Wawrinka, Raonic, Murray, Kyrgios start today !

For our friendly virtual bets comp, I pick Kuznetsov (10$ @ 1.86)

 

[britbox]

Round #2 / Day #3

I won't have time to go in details into the matches today. Big day today, we play our inter-clubs championship semi-final, wish me good luck, surprised that there are no posts on it on this forum The odds are not for us but we are brave

BIG BIG game : Berdych - Del Potro !!! On a normal day, I would have gone for Berdych, as I think DelPotro needs a bit more time to be back at this level but Berdych has been injured the last few days, so tough pick
Pella - Cuevas should be interesting / Goffin - Tiafoe too. Wawrinka, Raonic, Murray, Kyrgios start today !

For our friendly virtual bets comp, I pick Kuznetsov (10$ @ 1.86)

I was just about to start a thread on you Inter-Clubs championship but was assured by David Nalbandian via Moxie (who interviewed him once) that he was going to post a 12 page special feature.
Alas he has missed the copy deadline:spank:

Good luck Bert!!

 

[Billie]

I have no idea how to bet. Are you going to propose some matches here for each day or we can pick our own? I might do it over the weekend, just for fun.

And good luck Bert, knock them dead!!!:spank:

 

[Bert]

Thanks @Bert. Good fun.

$10 - Rosol $10 Istomin $10 Young

Ouch... -30$ today brings you to 62.5$. +3.5$ for me that gives me a balance of 78.5$. A bit more than one week to be back in the green

 

[britbox]

Bad day at the office for me. I thought Young was a punt, but the other two I felt pretty good picking.

 

[Bert]

@Moxie @Billie Sorry, I think I should have started to explain a bit the odds and the basics of betting first

Let's take an example of the coming match between Berdych and Del Potro. Odds are 1.59 for Berdych and 2.28 for DelPotro. That means if you bet 10$ on Berdych, if he wins you get 10 x 1.59 = 15.9$ (than means a profit of 15.9 -10=+5.9$). If you go for DelPotro and he wins you get 10 x 2.28 = 22.8$ (a profit of 22.8-10=12.8$).
The odds reflect the percentage of chances for a player to win according to the bookmaker. (in reality it takes also into account how many people bet on each player but keep it simple for now)
If we stay with our example, DelPotro's chances are : 100 / (1+(2.28/1.59)) = 41 % - Berdych's chances are : 100 - 41 = 59 % according to the bookmaker.

Now it is all depending on your feeling. If you think that the game is more a 50/50 game maybe better to pick DelPotro. If you think Berdych is a clear favourite you should pick him. The more your analysis is accurate, the more chances to make a profit in a long term betting.

For today, if you look at the file attached, you have the matches list : first column on the right of player names is head-to-head records (for Berdych-DelPotro this is 3-4 for DelPotro), next column is Berdych's odds and next one DelPotro's one. You can pick any game on which you feel confident. Britbox suggested that we start with a virtual budget of 100$ so you can bet your virtual money the way you like on as many matches as you like.

The funny part as well is to share 1 or 2 lines on why you picked this game or why you stayed away from an other one, this may help everyone to learn more about the players and gather all the information to make a choice.

Hope this is clear now... not so sure to be honest

I picked Kuznetsov to defeat Chardy because Chardy didn't play well recently and lost against Kuznetsov at Australian Open this year. Kuznetsov already played a first round here, always easier to have already played than starting the tournament. The odds are high (1.86) and I think Kuznetsov has more chances to win than the odds say.

 

[britbox]

There's not much I'd bet on that selection, so I'll just do two $10 bets on Murray and Wawrinka, which look clear cut, albeit for a tiny return.

 

[britbox]

Small return on the day for me.

Murray was 1.02 (so have made a staggering 20 cents) and Granollers made him work... Wawrinka was 1.14 so made ($1.40) - Running total= 62.5$ + $1.60 = $64.10. I've told my wife to put the world cruise on hold for the time being.

 

[Bert]

Small return on the day for me.

Murray was 1.02 (so have made a staggering 20 cents) and Granollers made him work... Wawrinka was 1.14 so made ($1.40) - Running total= 62.5$ + $1.60 = $64.10. I've told my wife to put the world cruise on hold for the time being.

Wise man

+8.6$ for me that brings me to 78.5+8.6 = 87.1 $

 

[Bert]

Round #2 / Day #4

Dimitrov - Zverev (1.43 / 2.73) : I picked Zverev in the first round, but against Dimitrov I think he is under.

Kukushkin - Nishikori (6.13 / 1.11) : They played 6 times and Nishikori won 6 times (that include two 2sets wins this year). Kukushin pushed Djokovic to 5 sets in Davis Cup but I cannot see how he can bother Nishikori here.

Djokovic - Frantangelo (1.01 / 17.24) : No comment

Nadal - Muller (1.3 / 3.44) : I really think that Nadal will win easy. Odds are quite high for Nadal in my opinion, I cannot imagine him losing against Muller on slow hard court.

Millot - Tsonga (7.23 / 1.09) : Tsonga did not play well recently. Millot aims at becoming top 100 and joined a team for the first time in his career (he is 30yo). He had really improved but the gap with Tsonga is too big. Tsonga should win easy.

Pospisil - Simon (3.58 / 1.28) : Third time they play against each other this year. 2 wins for Simon. Both did not play great until now, Simon is a bit above in my opinion but not such a margin as the odds say.

Isner - Seppi (1.26 / 3.76) : Isner played well against the Aussie for Davis Cup. Seppi managed to win his first round against Young. I have a preference for Isner here, but I don't feel 100% confident saying that.

Thiem - Kovalic (1.09 / 7.19) : 100% for Thiem

Kudla - Kolhschreiber (3.81 / 1.25) : The German didn't really impress me this season. Kudla is not really impressive too... Kolhschreiber seems above on the paper but I wouldn't bet my house on this one

Berrer - Sock (3.75 / 1.26) : Berrer already did a great tournament managing to qualify into the main draw and defeating Monaco in the first round. Sock for me is clearly above and I think this slow hard court suits him well. Sock should win.

Johnson - Millman (1.58 / 2.32) : I don't know these two players well. They played in Delray beach in February and Johnson won it in the 3rd set tie-break. I think Millman can take it.

Verdasco - Klizan (1.97 / 1.81) : Looks 50/50 to me. If I had to pick one, probably say Klizan but don't really know why

Querrey - DeBakker (1.26 / 3.73) : I think Querrey is playing really good this season, close to his best. He won in 3sets in Delray Beach against DeBakker in February. I think he will win again.

Lopez - GarciaLopez (1.62 / 2.23) : Lopez won in Dubai in 3 sets. He leads 4-3 on their 7 H2H. Lopez has been more consistent this season but it will be tight. If I had to pick one, maybe Lopez but without any confidence.

Youzhny - BautistaAgut (4.73 / 1.18) : 100 % for the Spaniard.

Mannarino - Paire (1.96 / 1.81) : 100% French. Paire is very hard to predict. He is better but it is all depending on his mood. Mannarino can gave him tough opposition. I think it could pay to put small money on Mannarino, but could go either way.

For out virtual bet competition, only one bet for me : 50$ on Nadal (1.3). And you ? what do you think guys ? Who would you pick ?

 

[britbox]

I'll bet $1 on Frantangelo... Novak ain't long back after a retirement.

I'm going to stick $10 bucks on Zverev over Dimitrov.

$20 on Querrey.

 

[Moxie]

I like your $1 on Frantangelo. With those odds....OK, I was going to dip my toe in, though I see I'm too late to bet on Zverev. He's up a break on Dimitrov. I'll bet $20 on Rafa. (We'll say I have a virtual $100 for the tournament, right?)

 

[britbox]

I like your $1 on Frantangelo. With those odds....OK, I was going to dip my toe in, though I see I'm too late to bet on Zverev. He's up a break on Dimitrov. I'll bet $20 on Rafa. (We'll say I have a virtual $100 for the tournament, right?)

Yes, $100. Happy tipping!

 

[Bert]

@britbox @Moxie We were all very inpired today ! Djokovic went in 3 sets and could have been the bet of the century ! Unlucky.

Performance summary :
Britbox : -1 + 17.3 + 5.2 = +21.5 - balance = 64.1 + 21.5 = 85.6 $
Moxie : + 6$ - balance = 100 + 6 = 106 $
Bert : +15$ - balance = 87.1 + 15 = 102.1 $

See you next round. Well done guys !!

 

[Moxie]

One bet and I'm leading the field! That will change. OK, I'll try to be bolder tomorrow, and join the WTA side pool.

 

[Bert]

One bet and I'm leading the field! That will change. OK, I'll try to be bolder tomorrow, and join the WTA side pool.

Cool that you joined !