Indian Wells - ATP : Predictions and bets

[Bert]

OK, I'm playing with $100 virtual money for the start of the tournament, and will see what I end up with.

$10 on Fritz to match my real bet (below) to beat Tiafoe.

I can't see the odds for some of these matches yet, so will give it 24 hours and then virtual bet on the others.

I'm also playing with $20 bucks real money and have just put $10 on Fritz at 1.18.

I put some matches on the WTA thread as well if you want to have a look.

 

[Bert]

Here we go with the match list and previsional odds

Virtual bets for me : 5$ on Bedene at 2.02 / 20$ on Fritz at 1.2

 

[Carol]

I would say Djokovic or Wawrinka. Murray may have some tough matches, playing Monfils or Kyrgios, and Berdych. I don't see Nadal reaching semis if he plays Nishikori in QF.

What do you think ?

Good question, it all will depend how every player would play, most of them are not too consistent playing one tournament more or less well and the next one not so well, we have seen that for awhile. The most consistent? Novak without any doubt but you never know, his shoulder, his eye or his thigh, everyday I read something new about him :scratch:

 

[Bert]

Round #1 / Day #1

Few games today, nothing to be very excited about except maybe Smyczek-Del Potro. For betting purposes I would pre-select :

- Edmund - Pella : odds 1.66 / 2.17
Interesting as Pella is a clay specialist, recent finalist in Rio, in the top 50. Edmund is more comfortable on hard cour but more used to play Challengers and qualifications. Whoever you go for, odds are interesting, just have to pick the right one

- Chung - RamosVinolas : odds 1.52 / 2.49
I think Chung is better on this surface. Ramos-Vinolas only played on clay since Australian Open. Chung is a promising player, in my opinion players ranked around 50 are the limit of reach for him, but on hard court I think he can beat the Spanish. Note he defeated him last year on grass.

- Fritz - Tiafoe : odds 1.20 / 4.38
Fritz is above for me. Playing a country fellow is always special but based on his recent performance, he should win this one. If I am correct, I don't think Tiafoe has ever reached the second round in a main draw (ATP). Cannot see why I would this time.

- Del Potro - Smyczek : odds ?
Don't know the odds yet, may update the post later. 100% for Del Potro on this one.

Here the order of play for tomorrow. I will attach the odds later.

 

[britbox]

Round #1 / Day #1

Few games today, nothing to be very excited about except maybe Smyczek-Del Potro. For betting purposes I would pre-select :

- Edmund - Pella : odds 1.66 / 2.17
Interesting as Pella is a clay specialist, recent finalist in Rio, in the top 50. Edmund is more comfortable on hard cour but more used to play Challengers and qualifications. Whoever you go for, odds are interesting, just have to pick the right one

- Chung - RamosVinolas : odds 1.52 / 2.49
I think Chung is better on this surface. Ramos-Vinolas only played on clay since Australian Open. Chung is a promising player, in my opinion players ranked around 50 are the limit of reach for him, but on hard court I think he can beat the Spanish. Note he defeated him last year on grass.

- Fritz - Tiafoe : odds 1.20 / 4.38
Fritz is above for me. Playing a country fellow is always special but based on his recent performance, he should win this one. If I am correct, I don't think Tiafoe has ever reached the second round in a main draw (ATP). Cannot see why I would this time.

- Del Potro - Smyczek : odds ?
Don't know the odds yet, may update the post later. 100% for Del Potro on this one.

Here the order of play for tomorrow. I will attach the odds later.

Good stuff bert, I will add some extra picks later to the Fritz/Tiafoe one that I've already dialled in.

 

[Bert]

Good stuff bert, I will add some extra picks later to the Fritz/Tiafoe one that I've already dialled in.

Here the match list with all the odds.

For today, I would bet 10$ on Chung @ 1.53 / 20$ on Fritz @ 1.19 / 20$ on Del Potro @ 1.25. Hope this will go better than WTA yesterday.

 

[britbox]

Ok, to go with my bet on Fritz, I'll add a $30 bet on Del Potro @1.125

 

[Moxie]

Tiafoe took the first set, but Fritz up the early break in the 2nd. Here's something I didn't know: they've played 4 times before, all in challengers, and Tiafoe won all 4.

 

[Bert]

Yep. I think this was on Junior tour. I missed the info too. Still thinking that Fritz can do it today... oups Tiafoe just took Fritz serve and turned 2-1 in the 2nd.

 

[Moxie]

Yep. I think this was on Junior tour. I missed the info too. Still thinking that Fritz can do it today... oups Tiafoe just took Fritz serve and turned 2-1 in the 2nd.

Yes, Juniors. Sorry. Jim Courier says that the pressure is heavier on Taylor, since he's expected to win this one, but has yet to beat Frances. He looks like he's settled down now. Sure to go 3.

 

[Bert]

Good prediction ! Third set now.
True the pressure is clearly on Fritz but his recent experience on the main tour should help him.

Cannot imagine what's going on in Tiafoe's head : you play the guy that everyone is talking about as the future new star, in a big stadium, you win the first set, maybe your first win ever on a main draw of an ATP event, at home... brain is boiling

 

[Moxie]

Courier made another interesting point, talking from his own experience. He said early in your pro career, when you play the guys you played in juniors, you really want those matches. You're not playing an idol or a more veteran player. You're playing an equal. You really want the bragging rights. I think you can see how true that is. They're surely in a war.

 

[Moxie]

Hurrah, Frances! Big Foe, apparently. That was a good match. Nerves factored, and they both have a ways to come, but (some of) the future of US tennis, hopefully. I'm sorry if you lost any money, Bert, but I did say I'd be rooting for Tiafoe.

 

[Bert]

The

Hurrah, Frances! Big Foe, apparently. That was a good match. Nerves factored, and they both have a ways to come, but (some of) the future of US tennis, hopefully. I'm sorry if you lost any money, Bert, but I did say I'd be rooting for Tiafoe.

The beach temptation was too big... I left at 2-2 in the third. How was the end of the match ? Good ?

In real life betting, for once hesitation had good side. I bet on Fritz at the end of the first set and Tiafoe at the end of the 2nd set Just managed not to lose money.

 

[Bert]

Courier made another interesting point, talking from his own experience. He said early in your pro career, when you play the guys you played in juniors, you really want those matches. You're not playing an idol or a more veteran player. You're playing an equal. You really want the bragging rights. I think you can see how true that is. They're surely in a war.

Good point. That was clearly a point to take into account in the match analysis ! Sometimes H2H history is a good indicator as well, just pointing the fact that one player gives the other one a tactical issue that he is not able to overcome.

 

[Carol]

Inigo Cervantes has beaten Almagro 5-7 6-3 6-4. Almagro is not through his best times but I've seen Inigo to play before (26 years old) and I think he could give more than one surprise

 

[Bert]

Inigo Cervantes has beaten Almagro 5-7 6-3 6-4. Almagro is not through his best times but I've seen Inigo to play before (26 years old) and I think he could give more than one surprise

Thanks for that @Carol ! May be tough for him next round against Raonic but I will keep an eye on him. Probably good to remember your advice during the clay season, may be his best surface ?

 

[Carol]

Thanks for that @Carol ! May be tough for him next round against Raonic but I will keep an eye on him. Probably good to remember your advice during the clay season, may be his best surface ?

Like most of the Spaniards he has played more on clay than HC and grass, he has not done too much yet but I saw him a couple of times this year and he is doing much better than the previous years. I like to see how he will do against Raonic, it will be a tough match for him but hope to see a good match anyway, we'll see....

 

[Bert]

Round #1 / Day #1

Few games today, nothing to be very excited about except maybe Smyczek-Del Potro. For betting purposes I would pre-select :

- Edmund - Pella : odds 1.66 / 2.17
Interesting as Pella is a clay specialist, recent finalist in Rio, in the top 50. Edmund is more comfortable on hard cour but more used to play Challengers and qualifications. Whoever you go for, odds are interesting, just have to pick the right one

- Chung - RamosVinolas : odds 1.52 / 2.49
I think Chung is better on this surface. Ramos-Vinolas only played on clay since Australian Open. Chung is a promising player, in my opinion players ranked around 50 are the limit of reach for him, but on hard court I think he can beat the Spanish. Note he defeated him last year on grass.

- Fritz - Tiafoe : odds 1.20 / 4.38
Fritz is above for me. Playing a country fellow is always special but based on his recent performance, he should win this one. If I am correct, I don't think Tiafoe has ever reached the second round in a main draw (ATP). Cannot see why I would this time.

- Del Potro - Smyczek : odds ?
Don't know the odds yet, may update the post later. 100% for Del Potro on this one.

Here the order of play for tomorrow. I will attach the odds later.

Pella managed to defeat Edmund. If I had to bet on this one, I think I would have picked Edmund. He was one break up in the third before collapsing.
SAme scenario with Chung. He won the first set easily before losing the 2nd 6-0 ... he had 3 opportunities to take Ramos' serve at 3-5 but managed to lose the game and the match.
Tiafoe played a great match. He took his chance, Maybe Fritz had too much pressure.
Del Potro did the job. 6-4 6-0. No discussion.

On the virtual betting side, Britbox went -10$ on Fritz / +7.5$ on Del Potro : actual balance = 92.5$
For me what a bit tougher : -20$ on Fritz / -10$ on Chung / +5$ de Del Potro : actual balance = 75$

Will post the games for today later.

 

[Bert]

Round #1 / Day #2

Youzhny - Bedene (1.93 / 1.83) : interesting one. Youzhny records : 17 wins all in challengers (15) or qualif / 1 loss in Dubai 1st round. No matches against players in the top 100. Bedene records : 4 wins / 5 losses. 3 out of his 4 wins were in the 1st week of the season in Chennai, the fourth one against Karlovic who retires... In my opinion he has been a bit unlucky with his draws losing against Coric, Querrey, Johnson, Fognini on clay... They played once last year and Bedene won in straight sets. I think Youzhny is maybe full of confidence but I am not convinced he still can beat top 50 players. I pick Bedene

Gulbis - Garcia-Lopez (1.99 / 1.78) : Gulbis ? Who knows how he will play ? It is a bet for brave people.

Berrer - Monaco (1.74 / 2.05) : Monaco had a 6 month break from august 2015 because of a right wrist, only played 3 times this season on clay (1w/2l) and retired on his third match because of right shoulder injury. Berrer is not my favourite player but I think he can took his chance here, he won twice in qualifications and may start to feel at home I pick Berrer

Dodig - Zverev (2.27 / 1.61) : I like Zverev. Young promising player. Hope he will win this one.

For our friendly virtual betting comp, I pick Bedene (10$), Berrer (10$) and Zverev (10$).
Let me know your picks guys, you're welcome to join anytime the friendly betting comp, there is nothing to lose