How Many Grand Slam Titles Will Djokovic End His Career With?

[Denis]

This year is arguably better than 2011 already. 3/4 slams 4/4 GS finals reached.

On paper, sure But the big difference is that in 2011 he had a peak-level Rafa to compete with.

This is true.

 

[Denis]

El Dude, you had this great graph once (if I remember correctly) where you can see the number of slams by age by Roger, Rafa and Novak. This was a great graph, do you still have it somewhere? I think it will show that Djokovic still has some major catching up to do and he is getting close to the cliff Roger and Rafa fell off from at 29. Because of the competition, I think Novak can manage it better than Fedal, but that is one of the things that worries me moving forward.

 

[El Dude]

El Dude, you had this great graph once (if I remember correctly) where you can see the number of slams by age by Roger, Rafa and Novak. This was a great graph, do you still have it somewhere? I think it will show that Djokovic still has some major catching up to do and he is getting close to the cliff Roger and Rafa fell off from at 29. Because of the competition, I think Novak can manage it better than Fedal, but that is one of the things that worries me moving forward.

Hmm...I can't find one just on those three, but I can tell you their totals through Novak's age, what we could call the "age 28 season" - which is Roger's 2009 and Rafa's 2014.

Novak: 10
Rafa: 14
Roger: 15

That might seem like a huge gap, but consider what it was for age 27: 7 for Novak, 13 for Rafa and Federer - so Novak had a really great age 28 season, better than Roger's or Rafa's.

Also, note that Roger has only won two Slams since he was Novak's age. I think Novak should be able to at least double that.

 

[Kirijax]

So if we go by what's happened before, Djokovic's dropoff could happen at any time. It could be gradual or it could be quick. The guy's tennis style requires extreme physical conditioning. One injury could be the beginning of the end. Djokovic has been a bit like Federer in that way. Neither had major injuries although Federer did have to deal with mono. Nadal's career is all the more amazing when you think of all the injuries he had and he was still able to bounce back to win 14 Slams.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

lets say djokovic wins the French open in 2016 (we say that every year since 1925 but y'know..), I think a big possibility is that at 29 djokovic might sort off lose a slight physical edge but also mental edge and not be in contention for the wimby/osopen 2016 majors..

he'd be 29 and spent a whole decade thinking he could win the French after claiming beating nadal on clay is "beatable" after losing to him in 2006 (?). so that's his Everest moment..

you'd have though he'd have a fall off after that surely ?.. sadly dimitrov has had a whole bunch of problems in 2015, milos lost momentum via foot injury operation, those blokes coming back in 2016 plus murray/fed/rafa/stan/nishikori and potentially some young guns moving up like kygrios/coric etc might easily slow the flow of majors for djokovic.

 

[shawnbm]

I voted for twelve and I'm staying. This will be his greatest year in his career and he'll slide a bit down next year and win only one major

 

[nehmeth]

For those of you well-wishers who think he'll drop off next year...

From the U.S. Open post match interview:

Q. Roger says that you'll obviously win more Grand Slams if you remain healthy and obviously hungry. How hungry are you? And is 17, 18 anywhere in your sights?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: Well, we got two to double digits now, and I'm so, you know, obviously flattered and honored to be a part of elite group of players, legends of our sports to manage to win this many Grand Slam trophies in their lives and careers.

So to be just mentioned alongside them is truly something special. I'm 28. I have always valued the care for my body, and, you know, my mind and had this holistic approach to life. I always thought this is utmost importance for my tennis.

I will continue on with the same kind of lifestyle, same kind of approach. I think that kind of approach brought me to where I am today. Hopefully this kind of approach will give me longevity and that I can have many more years to come, and as I said, many more opportunities to fight for these trophies.

That's why I'm playing this sport, you know, because, first of all, I enjoy it, I love it, have passion for it, and then, you know, fight for the biggest trophies.

As long as there is this flare in me I will be coming back and bore you guys with my answers in the press conference.

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/interviews/2015-09-13/an_interview_with_novak_djokovic_final.html

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^that's the other option. 3 or maybe 4 majors for djokovic in 2016.

 

[Front242]

Nothing like heat of the moment polls Probably the same people voting 5000 times using VPNs

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/tennis/novak-djokovic-honoured-join-tennis-6440904

 

[Kirijax]

Nadal has 9 French Opens. King of Clay
Federer wins one more Wimbledon, ends career with 8. King of Grass.
Djokovic wins two more Australian and two more USO. Eleven total. King of HC.

Everybody goes home happy.

 

[Fiero425]

Nadal has 9 French Opens. King of Clay
Federer wins one more Wimbledon, ends career with 8. King of Grass.
Djokovic wins two more Australian and two more USO. Eleven total. King of HC.

Everybody goes home happy.

I did something similar to this years ago by giving "ownership" of the trophies to each of the events:

- http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=737 -

Who Owns Each Slam - Trophy Name Change?

Who owns each Major, worth changing the name of the trophy because of their dominance? Who do you think should have the honor and why? (Off the top of my head)

Australian Open for the men is owned by Novak "Nole" Djokovic: Not only winning 5 so far, won 3 in a row! No one's done that in the Open era!

For the ladies, I guess you should give it to Margaret Smith Court, but for many years, the top players in the world didn't even bother going "down under" so she picked up an easy 11 titles with a huge psychological edge over Evonne Goolagong!
----------------
French Open was owned by Bjorn Borg since the 80's with 6 titles, but Rafa Nadal has overtaken him with 9 titles

For the Ladies, Chris Evert is Queen of clay with 7 titles!
----------------
Wimbledon had Bjorn Borg as the apparent King, but Roger Federer not only took 5 straight, he has 2 more titles to have a total of 7!

Without a doubt Martina Navratilova reigns supreme on grass taking 9 singles titles: 5 straight ('82-'87) often without losing a set!
----------------
US Open had several dominant figures with McEnroe, Connors winning on 3 surfaces, and Lendl getting to 8 straight finals, but again Roger Federer dominated with 5 straight titles! This is why he's the GOAT with 1 FO & 4 AO's!

I guess you have to rename the trophy to Chris Evert due to her winning 6 titles on 2 surfaces: 4 on clay and 2 on HC!

 

[Kirijax]

I would still consider Connors the King of the USO. He won five titles, and on three different surfaces. Nobody will ever do that. Plus two more finals and seven more semifinals. He was in the final four 14 times. Amazing.

 

[Riotbeard]

Nothing like heat of the moment polls Probably the same people voting 5000 times using VPNs

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/tennis/novak-djokovic-honoured-join-tennis-6440904

While I don't agree with the poll, it seems unlikely considering how much more popular Roger is than Novak.

 

[stray_cat]

Maybe I should've added more options but here it is...

15?

16?

...

 

[Obsi]

Maybe I should've added more options but here it is...

15?

16?

...

What can I say. Front242 accuses me that I'm an irrational, unrealistic Djokovic fan.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I am going wih the 4-7 range. 4 if he develops health issues. 7 if he remains healthy. I know he will fight tooth and nail for that elusive French Open title.

I am going to say this is how he will end his resume:

Australian Open: 7
French Open: 1
Wimbledon: 5
U.S. Open: 3

I think I am going to revise mine a bit

Australian Open: 8 (I think he is comfortable here and can eke 2 more wins)
Currently at 6

French Open: 2 (I think now that he broke the barrier he will nab a second in his career)
Currently at 1

Wimbledon: 4-5
Currently at 3

US Open: 4
Currently at 2

 

[Front242]

Maybe I should've added more options but here it is...

15?

16?

...

What can I say. Front242 accuses me that I'm an irrational, unrealistic Djokovic fan.

I never used those words in any of my posts. I said your tone in slagging Federer's achievements gives Djokovic fans a bad name and it does. And congrats to Novak today but it's still a weak as hell era and he had a dream draw this year. A lot of things went his way this tournament and yet you go on and on about Federer's opponents when he won his slams :nono Murray's record in slam finals is woeful and he is Djokovic's pigeon. Federer with a bad back wouldn't have won only 3 games in 2 sets today.

 

[nehmeth]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/novak-djokovics-chase-of-tennis-records-is-speeding-up/

Interesting article from the 538. I think he's been reading El Dude's blogs.

 

[nehmeth]

I voted for twelve and I'm staying. This will be his greatest year in his career and he'll slide a bit down next year and win only one major

Hey shawnbm, he hit two majors already this year and his total is twelve. Any revisions upward? How high?

 

[Obsi]

I never used those words in any of my posts.

You didn't use those words literally but you said it indirectly.

I said your tone in slagging Federer's achievements gives Djokovic fans a bad name and it does. And congrats to Novak today but it's still a weak as hell era and he had a dream draw this year. A lot of things went his way this tournament and yet you go on and on about Federer's opponents when he won his slams :nono Murray's record in slam finals is woeful and he is Djokovic's pigeon. Federer with a bad back wouldn't have won only 3 games in 2 sets today.

You started with slagging Djokovic's achievements by talking about "weak" competition and then I retaliated. There was a discussion who had the most dominant run in history and I stated the fact that the gap between Federer (when he dominated) and a No. 2 was never as big as between Djokovic and Murray now. In your reply you said Federer faced stronger competition http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=4418&pid=226638#pid226638. Before that moment I never used level competition to diminish Federer's achievements. You're giving Federer fans a bad name.