How Many Grand Slam Titles Will Djokovic End His Career With?

[Billie]

I don't know, as many as he can, I guess. If he can stay injury free, his physio, who knows his body best after Nole himself, predicts Nole can play on top level for another 3-5 years. Since it is getting harder and harder to play physically, this will be the main thing with Nole. So planning tournaments and rest/downtime will be crucial.

Also having a bit of luck in schedule and draws. He is one of the rare players that goes very deep in almost every tournament that he plays (semis and finals), and he plays a minimum amount of tournies as it is, yet he still gets tired by the end of a tournament. He might need a bit of extra motivation from time to time, but hopefully he will find it when he needs it, just like he did at this past Wimbledon.

 

[calitennis127]

I think that winning Roland Garros would set Djokovic off on a tear for a year or two afterward. His confidence and consistency would be through the roof.

 

[AnonymousFan]

I thought I was being awfully optimistic thinking 11 at the start of the year.

Now, I think over/under of 13 seems reasonably optimistic, provided he has a good 2016.

Anywhere from 12-14 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[El Dude]

I originally voted 12. I'd probably change my vote to 14-15.

 

[nehmeth]

I originally voted 12. I'd probably change my vote to 14-15.

That will make three of us E.D.

 

[Kirijax]

I originally voted 14. He may pass that.

 

[herios]

After 2011, I predicted 12. It looked back then a long shot and way too optimistic.
I will not change my prediction, because I feel stronger and stronger that he will surprise me in a good way
heart::basiate

 

[Riotbeard]

I picked 11, I would adjust to 13-15...

 

[DarthFed]

I had 10 or 11 and will adjust it to 14. I didn't expect him to sweep Wimbledon-USO again. I still think that at age 29 next year you will start to see some decline. So next year figures to be the last chance to have another dominant 2+ slam season.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I too voted for 11. Now, it looks like he will get at least two in 2016 and at least one in 2017 and at least on more before calling it quits. So, I would adjust mine to 14.

 

[El Dude]

I had 10 or 11 and will adjust it to 14. I didn't expect him to sweep Wimbledon-USO again. I still think that at age 29 next year you will start to see some decline. So next year figures to be the last chance to have another dominant 2+ slam season.

I think this is right - he wins 2 next year, then 2-3 more after.

 

[Mile]

Djoker peaked late, due to era of hardest competition in tennis history. He will surpass Nadal. I would say 16.

 

[Denis]

It depends on the competition really.

Without Djokovic or Nadal, Federer would have been in the 20 range. The same applies to Djokovic (and to a lesser extent to Nadal).

These two guys took off a lot of slams from Djokovic. But they are gone now. And there is nobody to replace them. If Novak can stay fit and nobody challenges him, the sky is the limit.

 

[Denis]

ps this poll should have an option that goes beyond 14 (the reason I didn't vote in the first place). Novak's ambition is to challenge Federer's 17, we shall see.

 

[El Dude]

Its interesting how prognostications vary so much, year to year. At the beginning of 2015, when Novak had only won a single Slam in each of the last three years, it looked more like he would finish in the 10-12 range. Now with him having a three-Slam year, it looks more like 14-16.

If he has another three-Slam 2016, then I think he has a really good shot at passing Roger. He'll be 29, at 13 Slams, and presumably with little competition. If he wins two Slams in 2016, his chances go down a bit. If he wins one Slam next year then I think his chances of passing Roger are viritually nil.

So here's how I see his chances of passing Roger (assuming Roger doesn't win another) and finishing with 18+ Slams, based upon how many Slams he wins next year:

4 Slams in 2016 (14 total, 4 to go): 70%
3 Slams in 2016 (13 total, 5 to go): 50%
2 Slams in 2016 (12 total, 6 to go): 30%
1 Slam in 2016 (11 total, 7 to go): 10%

Or something like that. The main point is that 2016 will be huge for Novak in terms of his chances of passing Roger. He has a real window over the next year or two while he's still youngish, and with no new elites on the horizon for at least a couple years. 2018 is when it will probably get much harder.

Of course the great thing is that there are so many possible narratives. Maybe Andy Murray has a spiritual awakening, maybe Rafa discovers the font of health (aka stem cells), maybe Roger gets over his yips actually times his peaking right at a Slam and plays his very best in the final against Novak, or maybe Grigor Dimitrov undergoes Bruce Wayne-like training and becomes a demigod...etc etc.

So while right now it seems very do-able for Novak to get the Slam record, there are so many other factors at play. He isn't playing in a static environment.

 

[nehmeth]

Of course the great thing is that there are so many possible narratives. Maybe Andy Murray has a spiritual awakening, maybe Rafa discovers the font of health (aka stem cells), maybe Roger gets over his yips actually times his peaking right at a Slam and plays his very best in the final against Novak, or maybe Grigor Dimitrov undergoes Bruce Wayne-like training and becomes a demigod...etc etc.

:snicker So well said... made me smile.

 

[Denis]

This year is arguably better than 2011 already. 3/4 slams 4/4 GS finals reached.

 

[herios]

This year is arguably better than 2011 already. 3/4 slams 4/4 GS finals reached.

As far as slams is concerned yes. He has this year 1 master titles less than 2011, when he won 5 of 9, this year has 4 of 7 so far. But the good news is after the USO, in 2011 he was hampered by the injury he suffered at the DC tie where he went right after the USO and therefore he did nothing significant that fall. This year he has plenty of opportunities left to surpass his 2011.

 

[El Dude]

This year is arguably better than 2011 already. 3/4 slams 4/4 GS finals reached.

On paper, sure But the big difference is that in 2011 he had a peak-level Rafa to compete with.

 

[Denis]

This year is arguably better than 2011 already. 3/4 slams 4/4 GS finals reached.

As far as slams is concerned yes. He has this year 1 master titles less than 2011, when he won 5 of 9, this year has 4 of 7 so far. But the good news is after the USO, in 2011 he was hampered by the injury he suffered at the DC tie where he went right after the USO and therefore he did nothing significant that fall. This year he has plenty of opportunities left to surpass his 2011.

Well a FO final carries more weight than a masters wouldn't you think?