Fedalovic Wars

britbox

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Give it two generations and it becomes about stats. The emotion and nuance dwindles away as do the people who witnessed it.

If you recall when Pete was going for 12/13.. suddenly Roy Emerson emerges into the mix. Roy was a great player in his own right but let's be honest, he should never regarded in the same bracket as Laver or Rosewall... and never was by people who were there (not me by the way, but earlier generations... i.e. parents)

Suddenly, stats come up and Emerson is catapulted into a top bracket player by the youngsters squabbling on Youtube threads. I ask my old man, and he rolls his eyes... "Pancho Gonzalez was the man".

Of course, that was a stats manipulation magnified by the amateur/pro divide... and the Career Slam keeps Laver in the mix until somebody matches it. Even Rosewall fades from memory. But it's a reality propped up by stats without nuance.

Moving outside of tennis... I followed NBA in the 80s and recall the annual changeover of prospective GOAT between Magic and Larry Byrd. Then came Jordan.... Now I hear young folks putting Kareem above Magic, and sometimes above Jordan... why? STATS. Kareem has actually improved his ranking in the hypothetical GOAT charts since he retired!
 

El Dude

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Give it two generations and it becomes about stats. The emotion and nuance dwindles away as do the people who witnessed it.

If you recall when Pete was going for 12/13.. suddenly Roy Emerson emerges into the mix. Roy was a great player in his own right but let's be honest, he should never regarded in the same bracket as Laver or Rosewall... and never was by people who were there (not me by the way, but earlier generations... i.e. parents)

Suddenly, stats come up and Emerson is catapulted into a top bracket player by the youngsters squabbling on Youtube threads. I ask my old man, and he rolls his eyes... "Pancho Gonzalez was the man".

Of course, that was a stats manipulation magnified by the amateur/pro divide... and the Career Slam keeps Laver in the mix until somebody matches it. Even Rosewall fades from memory. But it's a reality propped up by stats without nuance.

Moving outside of tennis... I followed NBA in the 80s and recall the annual changeover of prospective GOAT between Magic and Larry Byrd. Then came Jordan.... Now I hear young folks putting Kareem above Magic, and sometimes above Jordan... why? STATS. Kareem has actually improved his ranking in the hypothetical GOAT charts since he retired!
Good post. Emerson vs. Rosewall is a good Rorschach of basic historical tennis knowledge, and one that plenty fail - not just kids on Youtube, but, well, the Tennis Channel. Some years ago they did a "100 Greatest" thing, and they ranked Emerson 11th among men, with Rosewall 13th, and Pancho 22nd! In reality (imo, of course), the latter two are definitely top 10 all-time, while Emerson is probably somewhere in the latter half of the top 50.

As for Kareem, that's a tricky one. I too (vaguely) remember the Kareem of the 80s, when he was really old. I misse his prime in the early 70s when he was a beast, and the advanced stats put him in the top tier. Meaning, I think Kareem is better than our memory of him in the 80s, but maybe not as good as some who only look at stats might say.

Tennis is hard enough to encapsulate statistically, due to shifting eras, context, etc etc, but basketball is even harder because it is a team sport. Look at Patrick Mahomes - this year he's having his worst record statistically, but his team is 13-1.

And with tennis, we always have the problem of "Slam absolutism" who don't seem to recognize the difference between Jan Kodes and Andy Murray, or Ilie Nastase and Johan Kriek.
 
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Moxie

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But don't the two posts above prove that we talk about the past legends forever? This is sports. Stats, records, etc. Sure, some of the nuance can get lost as memories fade and die-out, and stat preferences, such as "Slam absolutism" color the discussions. However, unlike the more distant past, this Golden Age of the Big 3 is well-documented on video. Plus, for the foreseeable future, there are 3 men at the top of the Slam records, so all will be in the conversation for quite some time. FFS, Pancho Gonzalez comes up around here, and we can't be the last of the tennis nerds, right?
 
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kskate2

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Good post. Emerson vs. Rosewall is a good Rorschach of basic historical tennis knowledge, and one that plenty fail - not just kids on Youtube, but, well, the Tennis Channel. Some years ago they did a "100 Greatest" thing, and they ranked Emerson 11th among men, with Rosewall 13th, and Pancho 22nd! In reality (imo, of course), the latter two are definitely top 10 all-time, while Emerson is probably somewhere in the latter half of the top 50.

As for Kareem, that's a tricky one. I too (vaguely) remember the Kareem of the 80s, when he was really old. I misse his prime in the early 70s when he was a beast, and the advanced stats put him in the top tier. Meaning, I think Kareem is better than our memory of him in the 80s, but maybe not as good as some who only look at stats might say.

Tennis is hard enough to encapsulate statistically, due to shifting eras, context, etc etc, but basketball is even harder because it is a team sport. Look at Patrick Mahomes - this year he's having his worst record statistically, but his team is 13-1.

And with tennis, we always have the problem of "Slam absolutism" who don't seem to recognize the difference between Jan Kodes and Andy Murray, or Ilie Nastase and Johan Kriek.
And then we have some players in team sports who are absolutely clunky in the reg season, but are solid gold in the post season.
 

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Gonzales beat the young and upcoming teen sensation, Borg, in the early seventies--when he was approaching 50!!! He has to be one of the top five or so players ever.
 
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El Dude

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Gonzales beat the young and upcoming teen sensation, Borg, in the early seventies--when he was approaching 50!!! He has to be one of the top five or so players ever.
He also beat a 19-year old Jimmy Connors when he was 43. His greatest accomplishments, though, were totally dominated the World Pro Tours during the 50s and early 60s. Those were grueling.
 

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Gonzales beat the young and upcoming teen sensation, Borg, in the early seventies--when he was approaching 50!!! He has to be one of the top five or so players ever.
Really? That’s incredible! I always feel that Pancho was one of them men who’d be great no matter what era he was in..
 
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shawnbm

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Really? That’s incredible! I always feel that Pancho was one of them men who’d be great no matter what era he was in..
Like El Dude said above ^ though, Brother Kieran, what some of those guys did back in the 1950s and 1960s was incredible. Some of them played each other hundreds of times if I recall correctly. I mean they were brutal contests and they played back to back all over the place and to see that he dominated the way he did against that level of competition (many great Hall of Famers like Rosewall, Roache, Laver, Segura, a young Newcombe), you have to think he is one of the greatest to ever to lift a racquet.
 
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El Dude

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Like El Dude said above ^ though, Brother Kieran, what some of those guys did back in the 1950s and 1960s was incredible. Some of them played each other hundreds of times if I recall correctly. I mean they were brutal contests and they played back to back all over the place and to see that he dominated the way he did against that level of competition (many great Hall of Famers like Rosewall, Roache, Laver, Segura, a young Newcombe), you have to think he is one of the greatest to ever to lift a racquet.
I've tried to come up with some sort of system to weigh pre-Open Era stats with Open Era...it is really hard, especially when there isn't a good database since The Tennis Base site closed up shop. And it isn't as much comparing across long periods of time as it is the difference in the way the schedule worked. Once the pros and amateurs split in the 1920s, you have an era of about 40 years in which the Grand Slams weren't so grand...all the best players cut their teeth on the amateur tour, then went pro once they hit their prime, and on the pro tour the overall level was a lot higher and you tended to play a lot of matches against the same guys. There were a lot of shlubs on the pro tour too, but the top players always ended up meeting each other in later rounds, with no real gaps where there wasn't another top guy across the net in a final, at least in the larger pro tournaments.

This is why Roy Emerson is probably the most overrated player in tennis history, because he won most of his 12 Slams after his better peers went pro. To be fair, he did beat a very young (and green) Rod Laver for his first two Slam titles in 1961, but then he lost to Laver in three finals in 1962. After that, Emerson won 10 more Slams, including one over some Frenchman named Pierre Darmon, Fred Stolle five times, and Arthur Ashe three times. Stolle and Ashe were really good, even lesser greats (especially Ashe) - but they weren't Laver or Rosewall. While Emerson was in his early 30s when the Open Era began, the drop in his level was significant: he went from winning 2 Slams and 11 titles in 1967, to never going past a Slam QF and winning only seven more titles, all minor ones, despite playing full time through 1973. Compare that to Laver who, while two years young, was probably the best player of the Open Era thorugh 1971, and Rosewall (two years older than Emerson) probably the 2nd best player.

In a way, the Open Era was for Emerson what joining the pro tour was for Gonzales, Rosewall, Laver, and others who went from the amateur to pro tours: they experienced a rough patch for a year or two, before adjusting. But Emerson never adjusted; he went from being the top dog on the amateur tour one year, to a borderline top 10 guy for the first few years of the Open Era. Manolo Santana shared a similar fate.

Back to Pancho, he won 113 titles in total (not sure if this includes pro tours) - only Laver (198), Rosewall (147), Jaroslav Drobny (147), Josiah Ritchie (139), Bill Tilden (138), and Anthony Wilding (118) won more...and several of those guys mostly played in the early decades of tennis history. Pancho is also one of only five players to play over 2000 matches (along with Rosewall, Tilden, Laver, and Segura)...by comparison, Roger played in 1526 matches, Novak 1346, and Rafa 1308...Rosewall's 2521 is about 1000 matches more than Roger! But his most impressive feat is winning the World Pro Championships seven times...more on that in a minute.

I personally consider Gonzales top 10 all-time - though in the bottom half after Tilden, Laver, and the Big Three. I'd probably have him #6, with Rosewall #7, ahead of the next group that includes Budge, Sampras, Borg, Lendl, etc. Jeff Sackmann of Tennis Abstract/Heavy Topspin Pancho ranked 9th among men of the last 100 years, like so:

Jeff Sackmann's Top 20 Male Players of the Last Century
  1. Rod Laver
  2. Novak Djokovic
  3. Roger Federer
  4. Bill Tilden
  5. Rafael Nadal
  6. Bjorn Borg
  7. John McEnroe
  8. Ken Rosewall
  9. Richard Gonzalez
  10. Ivan Lendl
  11. Pete Sampras
  12. Don Budge
  13. Jimmy Connors
  14. Jack Kramer
  15. Andy Murray
  16. Boris Becker
  17. Ellsworth Vines
  18. Fred Perry
  19. Andre Agassi
  20. Stefan Edberg
Sackmann's ranking is entirely based on Elo - balancing peak, career, and best seven years. There are lots of controversial bits - like Lendl over Sampras, or Murray over a bunch of other guys, or down further he has David Ferrer over Jim Courier, Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt; and he has Stan Wawrinka near the end of his list of 60ish men...behind Kei Nishikori (!). But I think he just remained faithful to his formula. Elo tends to penalize inconsistent players like Wawrinka, and likes consistent players like Ferrer and Nishikori. He did those rankings two years ago, but I heard him say in a podcast that Laver was so far ahead of anyone else, that unless Novak or Rafa had like five more peak years, they wouldn't catch him. I assume his rankings are the same now as they were two years ago, considering Rafa didn't really play much and Novak, while having that great 2023, still wouldn't have caught up to Laver.

Anyhow, the pros had a range of tournaments, but the big ones were the pro tours. The Pro Slams were big, but they were usually just 3 or 4 rounds, and pretty similar to the Open Era WCT Finals and Grand Slam Cup in terms of difficulty and level...sort of between a Masters and the Tour Finals. A lot of pro tournaments were like that: short, but fierce in competition. Take the Wimbledon Pro in 1967, for instance. In the last year of the pro/amateur split, it was the first time pros played on Centre Court at Wimbledon. Laver won it, defeating Fred Stolle, Andres Gimeno, and Ken Rosewall in three rounds. Stolle and Gimeno were top 10 guys, and Rosewall was the second best player in the world at the time.

But the pro tours were almost like "seasons within seasons" - some just a few matches, but many involving dozens, even over 100 at times. The biggest pro tour was the World Pro Championships, which was a series of head-to-head matches between the champion from the previous year and a challenger (or sometimes, a pool of challenger). The challenger was often the top amateur who just went pro. In a way, it was THE "grandest Slam" of the pro tour.

In the World tour held from October of 1949 to May of 1950, Jack Kramer won it, demolishing a virginal Gonzales 94-29. Meaning, they played each other 123 times over a seven month period! For this and other reasons, Pancho almost retired - he was semi-retired in 1951-53, focusing on running a tennis shop, playing only short tours. Evidently he was a bit of an outcast from the Riggs/Kramer tennis illuminati. But his game grew, and by 1952 was one of the top pros. Kramer eventually relented and signed hiim to a pro contract in late 1953, and for the next eight or nine years, it was all Pancho - he won all seven World Pro Championships from 1954-61.

As another side note, it is also interesting to note that there were no gaps in the "reigns" of the players who won the World Pro Championships; it was played 24 times from the first in 1928 to the last in 1963 (with a lot of missed years, mostly due to WW2). But Tilden won the first three, Ellsworth Vines the next five in a row, before Don Budge took the reins and won the next three. After three missed years, Bobby Riggs won it in 1946, then Jack Kramer took over and won the next four. But then Pancho came into his own, and won the next seven, before Ken Rosewall won the last (so Laver didn't really have much of a chance to win it).


OK, enough of the tangent! Bottom line: Pancho is an inner circle great and one of the top 10 players of all time.
 
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Shivashish Sarkar

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There's nothing wrong with someone saying that Djokovic is the GOAT but what's wrong is failing to recognise other people's talents like Alcaraz, Sinner, Federer, Nadal. Fanboyhood makes you blind. When I was a Federer fan I did used to admit that there were a bunch of other talented players who were quite interesting to watch.
 
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El Dude

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There's nothing wrong with someone saying that Djokovic is the GOAT but what's wrong is failing to recognise other people's talents like Alcaraz, Sinner, Federer, Nadal. Fanboyhood makes you blind. When I was a Federer fan I did used to admit that there were a bunch of other talented players who were quite interesting to watch.
When we're talking about Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, they were all so stratospherically great that any kind of criticism ends up seeming rather silly. And obviously Alcaraz and Sinner both have the makings of all-time greats, but we're still a few years a way from being able to really say how great they might become, or how they'll compare to other greats.

But...it is impossible to form a cogent argument against Novak as the "statistical GOAT," at least for the Open Era (before then it is harder to compare). His overall resume is just better than everyone else's, and it is no longer close. He isn't hugely above Fedal, but he is noticeably more accomplished in almost every way that matters. Meaning, if the bottom line is results, Novak is the GOAT.

But greatness isn't only about stats. Some Roger fans still consider him the GOAT, due to his huge impact on the sport, style, skills, and the sense of being a "perfect" player. There isn't anyone who could do more with a tennis racket. Some Rafa fans consider him the GOAT, because of his unparalleled dominance on clay, a surface on which he was more dominant than anyone anywhere (meaning, Rafa in his best context was better than anyone else in their best context).

We could say:
Novak = statistical GOAT
Roger = style and skills GOAT
Rafa = surface/context GOAT

But even then, there is a sense that both Roger and Rafa have a slight "but" to their co-title with Novak. In the end, the results are what get cemented into the history books, and Novak's results are superior to both.

The reason Jeff Sackmann ranks Laver above all three is because he uses Elo rating, and evidently Laver's career, peak, and prime Elo ratings are way above everyone else's. Laver's prime was roughly from 1961 to 1971, with his absolute peak being maybe 1965-69, and we only have reliable data from 1968 on. His 1969 season was one of the four greatest seasons of the Open Era (along with McEnroe in '84, Roger in '06, Novak in '15). The thing is, his 1962 and 1965-67 seasons were similarly dominant, and some have said he played his best tennis before the Open Era even started. He won all four amateur Slams in 1962 and after a couple years of adjusting to the pro tour (while still being great), was totally dominant in the last three years of the pro tour. At the very least, he's in the GOAT tier with the Big Three, but harder to compare. In a way, Laver was the pinnacle of the pre-Open Era, and more than proved his meddle in the first years of the modern era.

Laver barely played any Slams after 1969 due to contracts, never winning another. But he was the best player on the WCT and overall for another two years, and still top 10 through 1975. So he was an elite player from about 1960-75, a sixteen year span that is close to the elite ranges of the Big Four, and he was the best player on tour for about half of that. My favorite Rod Laver title is the 1971 Tennis Champions Classic, a short-lived tournament -- just two years. He won it in 1970, when it was the same format as the current Tour Finals, losing a RR match to a 42 year old Pancho Gonzales, but beating him in the SF. But 1971 was insane: he played 13 matches against top players, beating them all - some multiple times.

If nothing else, consider the fact that Laver was the best player up to that point in tennis history, and there was no one truly comparable until the Big Three came along. No other player has such a singular place in tennis history.
 

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Here's a chart that illustrates how good Laver was - and also Gonzales and Rosewall. Short explanation: it uses what I call "Title Shares" which give points for every title won, but not other results. It is relatively self-explanatory as the shapes align with tournament type. Above the mid-line for each player are Slams, as well as the World Pro Championship Tour during the pro area (the big blue things on Gonzales and Rosewall), and below are all other tournaments, including lesser pro tours in the brighter blue, separated by a black space. Also, green is Open Era, blue is pro tour, teal are amateur titles.

Screenshot 2024-12-29 at 4.49.05 PM.png


A few comments. While there's a judgment call on my part on how to weigh tournaments, especially before the Open Era, even as an estimate, it gives a sense of players relative to each other. So you can see that Laver, Rosewall, and Gonzales are closer to the Big Three than they are to the other greats here (the chart I have continues below to include lesser and near greats).

Another nice thing about this chart is you get a sense of how players accumulated their TS, Slams vs. non-Slams - and when. Lendl was an elite player before his first Slam in 1984 - his 1982 season was probably the best season ever by a player without winning a Slam, or possibly Laver's 1970. Borg and Sampras are very "Slam-heavy" relative to Lendl and McEnroe.

Notice also how similar the overall impact of Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, and Sampras are - if you take the shape as a whole. Borg and Sampras are lauded for their Slam counts, but Mac and Lendl are roughly similar overall.

Finally, check out the Big Three. You can see how each had a different "shape" to their greatness. Roger's 2004-07 was just an astonishing peak, while Rafa's is more even due to his clay performance, with a few spikes in his best years. Novak's sort of looks like two great careers separated by 2017.

If you want to know the system, it is here:
KEY
Title Shares

Open Era Grand Slam (except AO): 15
Australian Open 1969-82: 10 (except 12 for 1969, which was stronger)
Amateur Slams: 6-10, depending
Pro Slams: 2 points per win (so 6-8, usually)
Tour Finals: 1 per match win + 3 for title (in current era, 7 or 8 depending on total wins)
Olympics Gold: 5 (2 for 1984)
Masters: 4
ATP 500: 2
ATP 250: 1
Davis Cup final: 1

Pro Tours: 1 point per 2 wins (some are estimated)
 
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Moxie

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I think Roger Federer and not Novak Djokovic is the greatest player ever.

Records at Wimbledon and US Open.
I'm glad there are still some Federer fans willing to just say what they think, which is that he's the greatest ever. I know there are a lot out there that just really think so. You go!
 

Moxie

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When we're talking about Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, they were all so stratospherically great that any kind of criticism ends up seeming rather silly. And obviously Alcaraz and Sinner both have the makings of all-time greats, but we're still a few years a way from being able to really say how great they might become, or how they'll compare to other greats.

But...it is impossible to form a cogent argument against Novak as the "statistical GOAT," at least for the Open Era (before then it is harder to compare). His overall resume is just better than everyone else's, and it is no longer close. He isn't hugely above Fedal, but he is noticeably more accomplished in almost every way that matters. Meaning, if the bottom line is results, Novak is the GOAT.

But greatness isn't only about stats. Some Roger fans still consider him the GOAT, due to his huge impact on the sport, style, skills, and the sense of being a "perfect" player. There isn't anyone who could do more with a tennis racket. Some Rafa fans consider him the GOAT, because of his unparalleled dominance on clay, a surface on which he was more dominant than anyone anywhere (meaning, Rafa in his best context was better than anyone else in their best context).

We could say:
Novak = statistical GOAT
Roger = style and skills GOAT
Rafa = surface/context GOAT
Our friend @Shivashish Sarkar is expressing an emotional opinion, but I suspect he's not alone in it, out there. I've told you that this will be argued for a long time. Even you say that they are all 3 stratospherically great.

You categories mirror something that @britbox came up with a while back: Novak = statistical GOAT, Roger = style GOAT, and then he choked a bit thinking that just maybe Rafa could be the Clay GOAT. But same idea. I'm not sure what "context" GOAT means, unless it's "In the context of clay?" Or in the context of competitiveness? Or in the context of winning percentage at Majors?
But even then, there is a sense that both Roger and Rafa have a slight "but" to their co-title with Novak. In the end, the results are what get cemented into the history books, and Novak's results are superior to both.
And Novak has a "but" attached to his landing on the top of the heap, in the end. Because he sure couldn't get it done when they were more in their salad days. Nice to be the last man standing. I'll leave it to @Kieran to reiterate this, as he does it better and more boldly than I do.

As to Laver, and your charts...need a bit more time with those, but thanks!
 
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Fiero425

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Our friend @Shivashish Sarkar is expressing an emotional opinion, but I suspect he's not alone in it, out there. I've told you that this will be argued for a long time. Even you say that they are all 3 stratospherically great.

You categories mirror something that @britbox came up with a while back: Novak = statistical GOAT, Roger = style GOAT, and then he choked a bit thinking that just maybe Rafa could be the Clay GOAT. But same idea. I'm not sure what "context" GOAT means, unless it's "In the context of clay?" Or in the context of competitiveness? Or in the context of winning percentage at Majors?

And Novak has a "but" attached to his landing on the top of the heap, in the end. Because he sure couldn't get it done when they were more in their salad days. Nice to be the last man standing. I'll leave it to @Kieran to reiterate this, as he does it better and more boldly than I do.

As to Laver, and your charts...need a bit more time with those, but thanks!

I've been listening to this BS since the beginning; almost 20 yrs. really! Those weren't "salad days" from 2011-16 for Fedal? So you're saying they were past it already & that was the only reason Djokovic dominated the tour for so many weeks & YE's! Poor old men Roger & Rafa could barely hold their rackets up against a much younger Novak (just a babe in the woods) even though they all shared #1 over that period! I suppose thru this logic Djoker's 1st 12 Majors are illegitimate along w/ 30+ Masters, & 5 YEC's! The haters have already invalidated his last 12 Major wins (2018-23) since Fedal were literally crawlling to the courts to compete by then! Nole won't get credit for his OGM since Rafa eliminated in the 1st Rd. of both the FO & OG in Paris! :fearful-face::face-with-hand-over-mouth::astonished-face::face-with-tears-of-joy:
 

El Dude

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Our friend @Shivashish Sarkar is expressing an emotional opinion, but I suspect he's not alone in it, out there. I've told you that this will be argued for a long time. Even you say that they are all 3 stratospherically great.

You categories mirror something that @britbox came up with a while back: Novak = statistical GOAT, Roger = style GOAT, and then he choked a bit thinking that just maybe Rafa could be the Clay GOAT. But same idea. I'm not sure what "context" GOAT means, unless it's "In the context of clay?" Or in the context of competitiveness? Or in the context of winning percentage at Majors?
I mean in ANY context. Rafa on clay is the best tennis player ever, clay being a specific context. That gives him GOAT rights: he was greater on clay than Roger and Novak on grass and hards, greater than anyone, really, in any specific context. So it is surface, yet, but a bit more broad than that.

I mean, we can look at it through the lens of Win %. Here are the top 10 surface Win %s:

  1. Nadal on clay 91.3%
  2. Federer on grass 86.9%
  3. Djokovic on grass 85.8%
  4. Borg on clay 85.7%
  5. Djokovic on hards 85.1%
  6. Laver on grass 84.8%
  7. McEnroe on carpet 84.5%
  8. Borg on grass 83.7%
  9. Sampras on grass 83.5%
  10. Federer on hard 83.3%

As you can see, there's a 4.4% gap between Rafa on clay an Roger on grass, while #2-10 (both Roger) are separated by 3.3%.


And Novak has a "but" attached to his landing on the top of the heap, in the end. Because he sure couldn't get it done when they were more in their salad days. Nice to be the last man standing. I'll leave it to @Kieran to reiterate this, as he does it better and more boldly than I do.

As to Laver, and your charts...need a bit more time with those, but thanks!
Yeah, I'm more with Fiero on this one. I get and partially agree with Kieran's notion about opportunity, but as Fiero points out, Novak was plenty dominant while Roger and Rafa (not to mention Andy) were in their primes. Novak's two best seasons were 2011 and 2015 which is pretty much the height of the Big Four era. And while Rafa was struggling in 2015, don't forget that he was very much in his prime in 2011; he just didn't have any answers to Novak 2.0.

I love Kieran, but he spins a bit in favor of Rafa. All three - and really, all greats - have ways in which they padded their stats. Roger won a lot of Slams against non-great players, and Rafa has some easy Slams on his resume.

Furthermore, Kieran tends to focus on Slams which are obviously the big prizes, but there are plenty of other big tournaments. And when assessing overall greatness, everything counts. Consider that from 2011-16, Novak won 11 Slams, 4 Tour Finals, and 25 Masters - 40 big titles overall out of 85, or 47%. That's pretty crazy. His second prime--2018-23--saw slightly more Slams (12) but far fewer lesser big titles (12), as he both focused more on Slams and the younger generations started to rise and take Masters and Tour Finals (similarly with Rafa during that span). You can see this illustrated in the chart above, when the "underside" of both Novak and Rafa are a bit weaker compared to earlier periods - even as they maintained their Slam dominance.
 

britbox

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You categories mirror something that @britbox came up with a while back: Novak = statistical GOAT, Roger = style GOAT, and then he choked a bit thinking that just maybe Rafa could be the Clay GOAT. But same idea. I'm not sure what "context" GOAT means, unless it's "In the context of clay?" Or in the context of competitiveness? Or in the context of winning percentage at Majors?

Oh, I think you should know what the term GOAT means in a sporting context by now :face-with-tears-of-joy:.

I won't reiterate all of it, but a) Rafa IS the clay GOAT;

The only GOAT context you claim not to understand are ones where they don't feature Rafa's name. ;)
 
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britbox

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When we're talking about Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, they were all so stratospherically great that any kind of criticism ends up seeming rather silly. And obviously Alcaraz and Sinner both have the makings of all-time greats, but we're still a few years a way from being able to really say how great they might become, or how they'll compare to other greats.

But...it is impossible to form a cogent argument against Novak as the "statistical GOAT," at least for the Open Era (before then it is harder to compare). His overall resume is just better than everyone else's, and it is no longer close. He isn't hugely above Fedal, but he is noticeably more accomplished in almost every way that matters. Meaning, if the bottom line is results, Novak is the GOAT.

But greatness isn't only about stats. Some Roger fans still consider him the GOAT, due to his huge impact on the sport, style, skills, and the sense of being a "perfect" player. There isn't anyone who could do more with a tennis racket. Some Rafa fans consider him the GOAT, because of his unparalleled dominance on clay, a surface on which he was more dominant than anyone anywhere (meaning, Rafa in his best context was better than anyone else in their best context).

We could say:
Novak = statistical GOAT
Roger = style and skills GOAT
Rafa = surface/context GOAT

But even then, there is a sense that both Roger and Rafa have a slight "but" to their co-title with Novak. In the end, the results are what get cemented into the history books, and Novak's results are superior to both.

The reason Jeff Sackmann ranks Laver above all three is because he uses Elo rating, and evidently Laver's career, peak, and prime Elo ratings are way above everyone else's. Laver's prime was roughly from 1961 to 1971, with his absolute peak being maybe 1965-69, and we only have reliable data from 1968 on. His 1969 season was one of the four greatest seasons of the Open Era (along with McEnroe in '84, Roger in '06, Novak in '15). The thing is, his 1962 and 1965-67 seasons were similarly dominant, and some have said he played his best tennis before the Open Era even started. He won all four amateur Slams in 1962 and after a couple years of adjusting to the pro tour (while still being great), was totally dominant in the last three years of the pro tour. At the very least, he's in the GOAT tier with the Big Three, but harder to compare. In a way, Laver was the pinnacle of the pre-Open Era, and more than proved his meddle in the first years of the modern era.

Laver barely played any Slams after 1969 due to contracts, never winning another. But he was the best player on the WCT and overall for another two years, and still top 10 through 1975. So he was an elite player from about 1960-75, a sixteen year span that is close to the elite ranges of the Big Four, and he was the best player on tour for about half of that. My favorite Rod Laver title is the 1971 Tennis Champions Classic, a short-lived tournament -- just two years. He won it in 1970, when it was the same format as the current Tour Finals, losing a RR match to a 42 year old Pancho Gonzales, but beating him in the SF. But 1971 was insane: he played 13 matches against top players, beating them all - some multiple times.

If nothing else, consider the fact that Laver was the best player up to that point in tennis history, and there was no one truly comparable until the Big Three came along. No other player has such a singular place in tennis history.

Interesting list. I briefly mentioned in a previous post that some players's resumes seem to improve like a fine wine over time. i.e. Kareem in the NBA (not that he wasn't an all time great - he was) and others slightly diminish (i.e. Magic Johnson). I remember years of squabbling between Federer and Sampras fans on who was the GOAT... and now Pete isn't in the top 10... and McEnroe is 7?
 
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Fiero425

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Interesting list. I briefly mentioned in a previous post that some players's resumes seem to improve like a fine wine over time. i.e. Kareem in the NBA (not that he wasn't an all time great - he was) and others slightly diminish (i.e. Magic Johnson). I remember years of squabbling between Federer and Sampras fans on who was the GOAT... and now Pete isn't in the top 10... and McEnroe is 7?

Well that's truly ridiculous! We have hyped Sampras even w/o a FO title! His run of 6 years as YE #1 elevates him above McEnroe who seriously only had 1 great season back in 1984! It was all downhill after that w/ upsets at Wimbledon to Curren & giving way to Ivan Lendl who took over #1 from him after their USO clash! It becomes opinion when we make lists putting Laver on top w/ his 2 CYGS! He was at his best in the WCT Tour, but didn't win anymore majors afer '69! No matter the opinion, it wouldn't make sense to leave Sampras out of the top 10! He had a great serve & nerves that were a lot better than Federer! I can't & won't go back to Am. Era trying to say Bill Tilden, Fred Perry, & Donald Budge could compete w/ modern day players! Supposedly Poncho Gonzales ruled the pro ranks into his 40's so he has to be in the top 10 as well! My choice OTTH:

1) N. Djokovic holding important recs. w/ no holes in his resume! 24 Majors, 40 Masters, 7 YEC's, 8 YE #1, Nole-Slam, OGM, & a Triple CGS!

2) Rod Laver - 2 Cal. Yr. GS
3) Roger Federer - 20 Majors, Won 3 of 4 Majors 3X's (Djokovic 4), 310 Wks. @ #1 (Djokovic 428 Wks.), 5 YEC's (Djokovic 7)
4) Rafa Nadal - 22 Majors, 14 FO's, OGM, Double CGS

5) Pete Sampras - 14 Majors, 6 YE #1's
6) Bjorn Borg - 11 Majors (The 1st male to win 11 Majors in the pro Era)
7) Ivan Lendl - 8 Majors
8a) John McEnroe - 7 Majors
8b) Jimmy Connors - 8 Majors, 109 Tourn. wins
9) Poncho Gonzales
10) Ken Rosewall
 
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