Fedalovic Wars

MargaretMcAleer

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Actually it is Marat's birthday today remember I am a day ahead of you guys, he turns 44, 27th January.
 
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Moxie

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Actually it is Marat's birthday today remember I am a day ahead of you guys, he turns 43, 27th January.
Marat beat Roger on his birthday in that 2005 SF, (or it was his birthday when the finished after midnight?) The crowd sang him Happy birthday. For those who have never seen that match, the highlights are surely worth it. Even the whole match. It's one of the best matches of the past 20 years.



At the French Open, later that year, Nadal beat Federer on Rafa's 19th birthday. I'm sure he was tired of birthday boys at that point.
 

britbox

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Marat beat Roger on his birthday in that 2005 SF, (or it was his birthday when the finished after midnight?) The crowd sang him Happy birthday. For those who have never seen that match, the highlights are surely worth it. Even the whole match. It's one of the best matches of the past 20 years.



At the French Open, later that year, Nadal beat Federer on Rafa's 19th birthday. I'm sure he was tired of birthday boys at that point.

Hard to believe that was nearly two decades ago - it still seems like yesterday.
 

PhiEaglesfan712

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To me, Roger Federer gets the edge in the GOAT race for winning the US Open - the slam with the most parity - 5 years in a row.

But man, Gaston Gaudio really sticks out as a sore thumb. That was truly the last time we had an outlier slam champion.
 

El Dude

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To me, Roger Federer gets the edge in the GOAT race for winning the US Open - the slam with the most parity - 5 years in a row.

But man, Gaston Gaudio really sticks out as a sore thumb. That was truly the last time we had an outlier slam champion.
That's just harsh. Gaston Gaudio is the greatest player ever to win Roland Garros in 2004.
 

Moxie

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To me, Roger Federer gets the edge in the GOAT race for winning the US Open - the slam with the most parity - 5 years in a row.

But man, Gaston Gaudio really sticks out as a sore thumb. That was truly the last time we had an outlier slam champion.
Why is the US Open the slam with the most parity?
 

PhiEaglesfan712

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Why is the US Open the slam with the most parity?
The slam is at the end of the season, following the FO, Wimbledon, and North American swing. Players are fatigued by this point in the season, and add in the humidity. A recipe for upsets. This is why there hasn't been a repeat champion at the US Open since Roger's run of 5 in a row. Just think, if not for a fluky off performance against JMDP, Roger would have won 6 US Opens in a row.
 
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Moxie

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The slam is at the end of the season, following the FO, Wimbledon, and North American swing. Players are fatigued by this point in the season, and add in the humidity. A recipe for upsets. This is why there hasn't been a repeat champion at the US Open since Roger's run of 5 in a row. Just think, if not for a fluky off performance against JMDP, Roger would have won 6 US Opens in a row.
I don't remember Roger being "off" in that match. I remember that JMDP seemed to be learning on the job how to win a Major and finished that match just great.

So you think that US Open has the most different winners of all the majors?
 

El Dude

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I don't remember Roger being "off" in that match. I remember that JMDP seemed to be learning on the job how to win a Major and finished that match just great.

So you think that US Open has the most different winners of all the majors?
I'm sensing an impending "Maybe El Dude can do some research for us..."

OK, I'll do it. Give me a few minutes...
 
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Moxie

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I'm sensing an impending "Maybe El Dude can do some research for us..."

OK, I'll do it. Give me a few minutes...
I swear I didn't think that, much. I did look it up, but my eyes glazed over, then I got distracted by Google. :)
 
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El Dude

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OK. You know it isn't enough for me to just compile some numbers, so I made a chart to give us a visual representation. Make of it what you will:

Screen Shot 2024-02-10 at 11.31.26 AM.png

I've looked this up before, but it is noteworthy how close the AO, RG, and USO are in terms of number of winners: 27 each for AO and RG, 29 for USO. Wimbledon has significantly less, with 21 (this is Open Era only).

Each has their own "shape" that tells a different story: Obviously Rafa's 14 RG titles. USO stands out for not having any player win more than five, and also more (6) with at least four. Wimbledon has a "Big Three" (four, if we account for Borg's short career). The AO has Novak doing a "semi-Rafa" and then more multi-Slam winners, with a lot of guys winning two.

As for the word "parity," when I hear that word in reference to sports I first think of the NFL and how they've used salary caps to bring team's closer together; that is, create greater competitive parity. In the NFL, just about any franchise can be good within a few years. Even the best franchise of the 21st century--the New England Patriots--"only" won 6 Super Bowls in a span of 18 years, and never more than two in a row. MLB has far worse parity, with maybe half of all teams never really being competitive except for maybe brief spans of time.

As far as tennis is concerned, I think of the way talent is pooled and how Slams are distributed. As we've discussed and is well known, during the Big Three era, there wasn't a lot of competitive parity: three players won not only the vast majority of Slams, but the vast majority of big titles. But this has always been the case in men's tennis: you have a small group of elites gobbling up most of the big tournaments, then a larger pool of second tier players winning the rest, with the occasional stray "third tier" player winning a Master's or even maybe a Slam. The main difference between the Big Three era and before is not only did they maintain their hegemony for longer, but it extended more fully into the non-Slam big titles.

@PhiEaglesfan712 can speak for themself, but I'm guessing what they mean is that the USO hasn't had a single dominant winner like the AO and RG, or a small group of players that stand significantly ahead of the pack like Wimbledon. But I'm not sure that this means there is greater parity, and I certainly don't see how this would give Roger any significant edge in the GOAT debate. Five USO titles in a row is very impressive, especially considering that it is evident that the USO has been harder to rack up big totals than other Slams, and probably for the reasons that Phi said (placement in the tour schedule). But...I don't see this as a significant indicator of GOATness. It is more of an anomaly due to a combination of Roger's early dominance and, as Kieran likes to say, the opportunity of the context in which he peaked.
 
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El Dude

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Here's the longest streaks at each Slam, three in a row or more:
Screen Shot 2024-02-10 at 11.57.44 AM.png


Not sure if that figures in at all.
 
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El Dude

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Coria never recovered from blowing that lead ..
I think that was the "one" of the one-two punch, "two" being Rafa steamrolling the clay world in 2005, including beating Coria in two Masters finals in a row. I think that finished him off, and "helped" him lose his confidence and develop the yips.

I mean, imagine being a youngish clay specialist in 2003-04...the field was wide open for guys like Coria, with no clearly dominant clay player. It seemed like only a matter of time for him to win at least one RG. He went out early in 2005 to Davydenko, but he would theoretically have more chances. But then Rafa exploded on the tennis world. He was the first guy since Thomas Muster in 1995 to win two of the three clay Masters and then Roland Garros.

Fun fact: Rafa in 2010 is the only year that a player has won every clay big title in a year, when he won all four. This goes back to years in which there were only three clay big titles (some years there were more than four). Here are the years that players won at least three clay big titles (bold means one of them was Roland Garros or a clay Slam):

2018: Rafa (3)
2017: Rafa (3)
2013: Rafa (3)
2012: Rafa (3)
2010: Rafa (4 - all)
2008: Rafa (3)
2007: Rafa (3)
2006: Rafa (3)
2005: Rafa (3)
1995: Muster (3)

1981: Clerc (3)
1976: Connors (3 - USO was clay)
1974: Borg (3)
 
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