Fedalovic Wars

[El Dude]

@El Dude Hey buddy.. recently Rafa said that he has missed 4 1/2 years of Grand slam events over his career..that's a lot. Is there a way to use your superb data analysis to possibly project over the past almost 19 years how many Slams that possible could have been added to his GS title resume?

I think the best way to consider this question would be to go Slam by Slam, and estimate his chances of winning that Slam. My back-of-napkin estimate, with chances from Poor (very unlikely), Low (unlikely), Moderate (a secondary contender), Good (major contender), to Very Good (favorite):

2004 RG & Wimbledon: Low and poor chance. He just wasn't there yet, even on clay. He might have had an exciting run, though, as an 18-year old.
2006 AO: Low chance. He was an elite player, but I don't see him getting past Roger at the AO yet.
2009 Wimbledon: Moderate chance. He won in 08 and 10, so you've got to figure he's in the running.
2012 USO: Good chance.
2013 AO: Good chance.
2014 USO: Good chance.
2016 Wim: Poor chance.
2020 USO: Good chance.
2021 Wim: Moderate chance.
2021 USO: Good chance.
2023 RG: Very good chance.
2023 Wim: Moderate chance.
2023 USO: Moderate chance.

So that's 14 Slams, with 2 poor chances, 2 low, 4 moderate, 5 good, and 1 very good. If he won the very good, 2-3 of the good, and 1-2 of the moderate and below, I figure that he could very well have 4-6 more Slam titles, if perfectly healthy.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I think the best way to consider this question would be to go Slam by Slam, and estimate his chances of winning that Slam. My back-of-napkin estimate, with chances from Poor (very unlikely), Low (unlikely), Moderate (a secondary contender), Good (major contender), to Very Good (favorite):

2004 RG & Wimbledon: Low and poor chance. He just wasn't there yet, even on clay. He might have had an exciting run, though, as an 18-year old.
2006 AO: Low chance. He was an elite player, but I don't see him getting past Roger at the AO yet.
2009 Wimbledon: Moderate chance. He won in 08 and 10, so you've got to figure he's in the running.
2012 USO: Good chance.
2013 AO: Good chance.
2014 USO: Good chance.
2016 Wim: Poor chance.
2020 USO: Good chance.
2021 Wim: Moderate chance.
2021 USO: Good chance.
2023 RG: Very good chance.
2023 Wim: Moderate chance.
2023 USO: Moderate chance.

So that's 14 Slams, with 2 poor chances, 2 low, 4 moderate, 5 good, and 1 very good. If he won the very good, 2-3 of the good, and 1-2 of the moderate and below, I figure that he could very well have 4-6 more Slam titles, if perfectly healthy.

Excellent post ..thanks @El Dude El Dude

 

[Jelenafan]

I think the best way to consider this question would be to go Slam by Slam, and estimate his chances of winning that Slam. My back-of-napkin estimate, with chances from Poor (very unlikely), Low (unlikely), Moderate (a secondary contender), Good (major contender), to Very Good (favorite):

2004 RG & Wimbledon: Low and poor chance. He just wasn't there yet, even on clay. He might have had an exciting run, though, as an 18-year old.
2006 AO: Low chance. He was an elite player, but I don't see him getting past Roger at the AO yet.
2009 Wimbledon: Moderate chance. He won in 08 and 10, so you've got to figure he's in the running.
2012 USO: Good chance.
2013 AO: Good chance.
2014 USO: Good chance.
2016 Wim: Poor chance.
2020 USO: Good chance.
2021 Wim: Moderate chance.
2021 USO: Good chance.
2023 RG: Very good chance.
2023 Wim: Moderate chance.
2023 USO: Moderate chance.

So that's 14 Slams, with 2 poor chances, 2 low, 4 moderate, 5 good, and 1 very good. If he won the very good, 2-3 of the good, and 1-2 of the moderate and below, I figure that he could very well have 4-6 more Slam titles, if perfectly healthy.

I agree with most of your assesment of his chances except perhaps for one:

2009 Wimbledon; if you take into account his knees were garbage by the French Open that year, then OK a moderate chance.

However if we are speculating relatively injury free to play, considering he was a finalist in 2006, 07 (losing in 5 with chances in that last set) winner in 2008 and winner in 2010 (straight sets over Federer’s conqueror Berdych) I would have gauged Rafa’s chances that year (2008) as Good or Very Good.

2006-2010 were his grasscourt salad days.

 

[Moxie]

I agree with most of your assesment of his chances except perhaps for one:

2009 Wimbledon; if you take into account his knees were garbage by the French Open that year, then OK a moderate chance.

However if we are speculating relatively injury free to play, considering he was a finalist in 2006, 07 (losing in 5 with chances in that last set) winner in 2008 and winner in 2010 (straight sets over Federer’s conqueror Berdych) I would have gauged Rafa’s chances that year (2008) as Good or Very Good.

2006-2010 were his grasscourt salad days.

I agree that 2009 Wimbledon he should have been given "good" to "very good" chance, given that this is the fantasy version, where he's healthy. He'd have played Roger in the final, and he was well in his head. Rafa was actually favored in the 2008 final, before he'd even won Wimbledon, so he'd have been favored to defend, those many years ago.

Another one I would have give him a "Very Good" chance of winning was the 2020 US Open. I think @El Dude and you both forgot what happened there. Djokovic got DQ'd and Thiem beat Zverev in the worst men's Major final in recent memory. Basically, the whole men's tournament that year was pretty woeful. I never say this, but I feel 99% certain that if Djokovic hadn't hit that lines person, he'd have won that tournament. And if Rafa had played it, with Djokovic DQ'd, he more than likely have won it.

 

[Kieran]

We shouldn’t forget the Australian Open in 2014 where he easily dispatched Federer in straights in the semi then faced a player in the final who he’d dropped not a single set against in all their previous 11 matches.

The FO 2016, where he pulled out injured after round one, but had shown signs of recapturing form in Rome. There are also slams he played where he was plainly not 100%…

 

[the AntiPusher]

The original GOAT

 

[Moxie]

We shouldn’t forget the Australian Open in 2014 where he easily dispatched Federer in straights in the semi then faced a player in the final who he’d dropped not a single set against in all their previous 11 matches.

The FO 2016, where he pulled out injured after round one, but had shown signs of recapturing form in Rome. There are also slams he played where he was plainly not 100%…

I thought AP's original question to El Dude was which ones "of the ones he missed" would he have had a good chance at, but he doesn't actually say that, so definitely fair to mention especially that 2014 Oz final. 2016 FO is a tough one, as he'd have had to go through Thiem and Djokovic to make the final, but, when healthy, obviously Rafa was always the one to beat. (I had to look it up again, to refresh my memory, but, btw, he pulled out - wrist - after the 2nd round.)

 

[Kieran]

I thought AP's original question to El Dude was which ones "of the ones he missed" would he have had a good chance at, but he doesn't actually say that, so definitely fair to mention especially that 2014 Oz final. 2016 FO is a tough one, as he'd have had to go through Thiem and Djokovic to make the final, but, when healthy, obviously Rafa was always the one to beat. (I had to look it up again, to refresh my memory, but, btw, he pulled out - wrist - after the 2nd round.)

He’d have won that year. I remember the battle with Novak in Rome, Rafa was finding his spite again. Twas a cruel twist that he hurt his wrist…

 

[Nadalfan2013]

The Fedalovic war ended all the way back in 2008 when Rafa won the biggest prize in all of sports, the iconic and historic Olympics gold medal.

 

[Kieran]

The Fedalovic war ended all the way back in 2008 when Rafa won the biggest prize in all of sports, the iconic and historic Olympics gold medal.

Pistol Pete put the Olympic gold to bed in 1996 when he didn’t bother his ass with it. He knew it for what it is. The Olympics isn’t a big prize for tennis players. Rafa cost himself a bona fide shot at the USO in 2008 by expending so much effort in China..

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Pistol Pete put the Olympic gold to bed in 1996 when he didn’t bother his ass with it. He knew it for what it is. The Olympics isn’t a big prize for tennis players. Rafa cost himself a bona fide shot at the USO in 2008 by expending so much effort in China..

Oh please, so what… Pete used to skip RG and clay so it means that it's not important? Djokovic sacrificed the Calendar grand slam by trying to win a gold medal at the Olympics in three events. By the end of the Olympics, he was mentally and physically spent. Everyone from Nadal Federer Djokovic have said how the Olympics is huge and how nothing compares. What Nadal did in 2008 is great. It’s actually his best year in big part because of the Olympics gold medal.

 

[Kieran]

Oh please, so what… Pete used to skip RG and clay so it means that it's not important? Djokovic sacrificed the Calendar grand slam by trying to win a gold medal at the Olympics in three events. By the end of the Olympics, he was mentally and physically spent. Everyone from Nadal Federer Djokovic have said how the Olympics is huge and how nothing compares. What Nadal did in 2008 is great. It’s actually his best year in big part because of the Olympics gold medal.

RG is a slam. Same as Wimbledon. Did he skip Wimbledon? No, but he skipped the Olympics. It’s a cheap bauble. A novelty event. Grand slams are currency in tennis, not those gold medals that more often than not are won by bug-eyed drug cheats…

 

[Moxie]

He’d have won that year. I remember the battle with Novak in Rome, Rafa was finding his spite again. Twas a cruel twist that he hurt his wrist…

It's amazing that a player with so many injuries has stayed in the game so long, and won what he did, missing so many majors. However, I'm not willing to say that he "would" have won the 5 matches he didn't play that year at RG, even if he's the biggest shoe-in RG ever had. That's the same way that I won't let people tell us that Novak would have won the 2022 Australian Open, had he played it. That's too much to be so sure about.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

RG is a slam. Same as Wimbledon. Did he skip Wimbledon? No, but he skipped the Olympics. It’s a cheap bauble. A novelty event. Grand slams are currency in tennis, not those gold medals that more often than not are won by bug-eyed drug cheats…

Pete skipped RG, does it mean that it's not important? Also tons of top players used to skip Wimbledon, especially the clay courters. Does it mean that it's not important? Or what about when players used to skip the AO up until the 90"s? Get a clue. lol Two years ago ALL the talk was about Djokovic's quest for the Calendar GOLDEN Slam, not the Calendar ATP Finals Slam or the Calendar Cincinnati Slam, but keep on pretending that it's not important when the Big 3 + Murray all compared it to winning a slam.

As for your stupid comment about drug cheats because you are so desperate to put down the Olympics, we will see what will happen with Djokovic as he plans to stick around for the next 10 years and is still beating the youngsters physically. Open your eyes. If there's a reason why Djokovic hasn't won the Olympics it's actually because testing there is way more strict so he has to be clean, that explains why he never reached a final there.

 

[Kieran]

Pete skipped RG, does it mean that it's not important? Also tons of top players used to skip Wimbledon, especially the clay courters. Does it mean that it's not important? Or what about when players used to skip the AO up until the 90"s? Get a clue. lol Two years ago ALL the talk was about Djokovic's quest for the Calendar GOLDEN Slam, not the Calendar ATP Finals Slam or the Calendar Cincinnati Slam, but keep on pretending that it's not important when the Big 3 + Murray all compared it to winning a slam.

As for your stupid comment about drug cheats because you are so desperate to put down the Olympics, we will see what will happen with Djokovic as he plans to stick around for the next 10 years and is still beating the youngsters physically. Open your eyes. If there's a reason why Djokovic hasn't won the Olympics it's actually because testing there is way more strict so he has to be clean, that explains why he never reached a final there.

Pete skipped RG in 1988 and 1990. Do you know why?

Other players have skipped slams to improve their chances at other slams. Lendl being the famous example, he skipped the FO a couple of times to prepare for Wimbledon, because that’s the one he really wanted. You’re missing something here, though. They all know that the FO and Wimbledon are slams. They want to win them, but sometimes they sacrifice one to try get the slam they believe they’ve most chances in. A lot of dirtballers skipped Wimbledon because they knew they didn’t have a chance.

Were they right to? Well, they definitely weren’t going to win it, so if they decide to skip it, that’s up to them. They have a career, they need to earn, so they’ll go where they can earn, instead.

The Olympics aren’t a slam, so skipping it isn’t comparable. And yes, you better sit down for this bit: the Olympics have a history of drug cheats taking home the gold…

 

[Kieran]

It's amazing that a player with so many injuries has stayed in the game so long, and won what he did, missing so many majors. However, I'm not willing to say that he "would" have won the 5 matches he didn't play that year at RG, even if he's the biggest shoe-in RG ever had. That's the same way that I won't let people tell us that Novak would have won the 2022 Australian Open, had he played it. That's too much to be so sure about.

But that’s what the conversation is about, how Rafa might have done in slams he skipped through injury..

 

[Jelenafan]

Pistol Pete put the Olympic gold to bed in 1996 when he didn’t bother his ass with it. He knew it for what it is. The Olympics isn’t a big prize for tennis players. Rafa cost himself a bona fide shot at the USO in 2008 by expending so much effort in China..

Tell that to Djokovic or Federer. They certainly did all they could to try & win it. Djokovic gambled a CYGS in pursuit ot that Olympic Gold.

 

[Jelenafan]

The original GOAT

It’s annoying how people now diminish WHY he was anointed the Goat status. Pete accomplished something which may stand for decades, ranked # 1 yearend for 6 consecutive years.

 

[nehmeth]

Tell that to Djokovic or Federer. They certainly did all they could to try & win it. Djokovic gambled a CYGS in pursuit ot that Olympic Gold.

Which was a pretty stupid choice in a lifetime hallmarked by unwise choices. Forget about the wear and tear on the body traveling to the other side of the world. He was engulfed in yet another controversy over there. He lost the singles and pulled out of mixed doubles where he still had a chance of winning gold. Not the best physical or mental place to be in when you’re about to contend for the pinnacle of tennis’s achievements.

 

[Kieran]

Tell that to Djokovic or Federer. They certainly did all they could to try & win it. Djokovic gambled a CYGS in pursuit ot that Olympic Gold.

Yeah, that was foolish, wasn’t it?