Fedal - XXXVII - Miami Finals

[Carol]

What a irony is that the player who has given more trouble to Roger for years now is giving him less than the others, hope something changes and I'm sure it will sooner than some people think

 

[MartyB]

What is most impressive to me about Roger's win in Miami is that he seemed to be kind of limping to the finish line, but still pulled it off. At AO he was building up, it was his comeback tournament and he was surprising (and beating) everyone, despite a hard draw. Then at IW he just steam-rolled everyone, never losing a set. At Miami, he struggled to beat Bautista Agut in R16, then almost lost to Berdych in the QF and it looked like he was gassed. But he put in a monumental effort to beat Kyrgios in the SF, and still managed to beat Rafa in two sets in the final.

In a way, Miami was more impressive - and indicative of future success this year - than IW, because it means that he has a B-game to fall back on if he's tired or not 100% sharp.

Exactly my thoughts...Maybe one of the most impressive Masters wins of his career. Everything was pointing to him losing in all of those rounds and yet there he was with heart and mind and talent willing himself on. Against Rafa you could just tell that the dynamics of this match up have been altered and significantly..Almost like when Novak was cruising against Rafa as well. Right now and from what I've seen I think Fed can take Rafa at the French as well.

 

[El Dude]

I'd like to think so, Marty, but only if the French Open was played within the next few weeks. Consider that Roger is going on vacation and Rafa will be honing himself in the four different clay tournaments. By the time we get to the French, Rafa could have found his clay mojo again and riding high, and Roger rusty after hanging at home with the family. I suppose the good news for Roger is that if that is the case, he'll have at least four matches before having to face Rafa.

 

[Moxie]

I'd like to think so, Marty, but only if the French Open was played within the next few weeks. Consider that Roger is going on vacation and Rafa will be honing himself in the four different clay tournaments. By the time we get to the French, Rafa could have found his clay mojo again and riding high, and Roger rusty after hanging at home with the family. I suppose the good news for Roger is that if that is the case, he'll have at least four matches before having to face Rafa.

Agreed, if RG were played in 2 weeks, Roger could trouble Rafa, for being in his head. However, Nadal has been on the improvement train, and should get some good feelings out of the next 6 weeks. Clay is taxing, and Roger has said he'll be focusing on grass. It will also be interesting to see how and when Andy and Novak come back.

 

[MartyB]

Agreed, if RG were played in 2 weeks, Roger could trouble Rafa, for being in his head. However, Nadal has been on the improvement train, and should get some good feelings out of the next 6 weeks. Clay is taxing, and Roger has said he'll be focusing on grass. It will also be interesting to see how and when Andy and Novak come back.

The assumption is that Nadal will sweep all the clay tournaments coming into the French. I'm not convinced of that. Not that he can't I'm just not convinced. We will know plenty after Monte Carlo.

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[britbox]

The assumption is that Nadal will sweep all the clay tournaments coming into the French. I'm not convinced of that. Not that he can't I'm just not convinced. We will know plenty after Monte Carlo.

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Agreed. I'm not convinced either - but I do think he'll get one Masters in the lead up to Roland Garros. Monte Carlo will be particularly interesting - assuming Djokovic and Murray are going to play it.

 

[Moxie]

Agreed. I'm not convinced either - but I do think he'll get one Masters in the lead up to Roland Garros. Monte Carlo will be particularly interesting - assuming Djokovic and Murray are going to play it.

I don't think the assumption is that, at all. Rafa has only "swept" the clay season basically once, and in his earlier days. He may even skip Madrid. Like Roger, he's at an age to be more clever about his scheduling, and I hope he will be.

MC should be a great opportunity for Rafa...top players wounded, or near, and Roger not playing. He'd better make the most of it.

 

[mrzz]

One thing is to put him as a favorite for all clay tournaments, other is to be sure he will sweep them all. There is no reason not to put him as one of the heavy favorites, in fact above the rest. Who else could be the strongest favorite, as of now?

 

[Moxie]

One thing is to put him as a favorite for all clay tournaments, other is to be sure he will sweep them all. There is no reason not to put him as one of the heavy favorites, in fact above the rest. Who else could be the strongest favorite, as of now?

Until Djokovic shows how he's coming back, Nadal is the top call on clay, as you say.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I don't think that is the assumption, just that he goes into clay season as the player to beat - the one guy who we can be certain will be in the mix at every tournament he plays in.

 

[DarthFed]

I think Nadal is the pretty solid favorite going into clay season. Now if Novak comes back and shows signs of life then he becomes the guy to beat on clay but there's been no signs that he will reach top form anytime soon. With that said it wouldn't be a good thing for Nadal if he swept everything on clay prior to RG. That'd be too much tennis. Ideally for him he wins MC and Barcelona like last year and maybe skips Madrid as hard as that'd be since it is a home tourney. Chances are he plays all 4 and if he does extremely well he can leap Roger for #4 before RG.

 

[Moxie]

I think Nadal is the pretty solid favorite going into clay season. Now if Novak comes back and shows signs of life then he becomes the guy to beat on clay but there's been no signs that he will reach top form anytime soon. With that said it wouldn't be a good thing for Nadal if he swept everything on clay prior to RG. That'd be too much tennis. Ideally for him he wins MC and Barcelona like last year and maybe skips Madrid as hard as that'd be since it is a home tourney. Chances are he plays all 4 and if he does extremely well he can leap Roger for #4 before RG.

That's what I'm saying...too much tennis. Depending on results, he likely skips Madrid. I don't want to set him up for a fall, but given everyone else's bedraggled state, he really ought to win MC.

 

[DarthFed]

He's never been too smart with his schedule. Skipping Madrid is a tough one just because it's in Spain so I don't see him doing it. I also think he wins MC. His biggest competition there could be Nicko. Not really seeing many threats.

 

[Moxie]

He's never been too smart with his schedule. Skipping Madrid is a tough one just because it's in Spain so I don't see him doing it. I also think he wins MC. His biggest competition there could be Nicko. Not really seeing many threats.

He had Madrid shoved down his neck by Tiriac. I don't think he has to play it this year, if it doesn't suit him.

 

[El Dude]

Perhaps it depends upon how seriously Rafa takes his chances at Wimbledon. Maybe he goes all out and tries to win as much as he can during clay season, skips Wimbledon and grass altogether, then tries to come back at Hamburg and the hard-court season.

As for Novak, the devil's advocate view is that he's actually playing OK, only having lost three matches this year. And consider his losses: Istomin was playing out of his mind, and Kyrgios was red hot. He's also beaten some good players: Del Potro and, of course, #1 Andy Murray, before Andy was hurt.

I think what is partially confusing people, at least his fans, is that there's hope he'll return to his 2015 form. That just seems unlikely at this point. He's almost 30 years old, so we should expect some decline. I suspect what we might see is that he'll do better when he gains a bit more confidence. Monte Carlo would be a good place for that to happen.

 

[Moxie]

I don't think Rafa will be thinking for one second about the grass season before the clay season is over, so that's not a thing.

As for Novak, that's not the Devil's Advocate view, that's the optimist's one. Sure, he got hit by some people playing top-drawer, but he's had physical issues, and been on a mental/motivation slide for some time, and it was evident in some of his more surprising upsets. I do think he'll get his mojo back, if not his 2015 dominance, as you say. I would be surprised if it comes back as quickly as MC. Could do, though, if he comes back really rejuvenated, and without shoulder or elbow issues on his serve, in particular. It'll be interesting to see how he plays at DC this weekend.

 

[El Dude]

Yes, it is an optimistic view and Devil's Advocate, because it is opposite to popular opinion.

The reason I said MC--and I agree it is a maybe--is that mojo can come back surprisingly and all of a sudden, with one or two wins.

Anyhow, I'm really hoping for a Novak-Rafa final. Or rather, I'm hoping for that if we can't have Kyrgios-Thiem.

 

[Carol]

Well, there is a big hope, if Roger after 6 months out of the courts and almost 36 years old is playing so well then Novak and Muzz 6 years younger (and less than one month off) can do still a lot as well as Rafa who at the present is healthy reaching three HC finals that according to some people is not his favorite/best surface

 

[Federberg]

Well, there is a big hope, if Roger after 6 months out of the courts and almost 36 years old is playing so well then Novak and Muzz 6 years younger (and less than one month off) can do still a lot as well as Rafa who at the present is healthy reaching three HC finals that according to some people is not his favorite/best surface

I highly doubt either Novak or Murray will be favourites against Rafa on clay at the moment. Neither has performed well recently, and they'll be coming back from injuries. I think the danger will come from Stan, Thiem or Kyrgios personally.

As for Novak, until his baseline rally speed goes up again I don't see how he's going to be in the running. Remember this has been an issue since late last year. Unless he's been carrying this elbow injury since way back then...

 

[El Dude]

Not sure how an elbow injury would effect baseline rally speed, assuming you mean his foot speed.

I mean, I get how it would slow him down overall, but if we can differentiate and see that he's actually slowed in terms of getting to the ball, then his elbow would have nothing to do with it.