Early Wimbledon Talk

[roberto]

These grass results have to have Rafael Nadal champing at the bit! Roger out in first round last week, and Murray, Wawrinka and Raonic already out at Queen's Club.

 

[Moxie]

These grass results have to have Rafael Nadal champing at the bit! Roger out in first round last week, and Murray, Wawrinka and Raonic already out at Queen's Club.

He's still got to get past the first week at Wimbledon, but yes, you'd have to say his odds just went up a bit, if he makes it to the business-end of the tournament.

 

[DarthFed]

These grass results have to have Rafael Nadal champing at the bit! Roger out in first round last week, and Murray, Wawrinka and Raonic already out at Queen's Club.

Murray and Raonic aren't too surprising. We already knew they are in a very weakened state this year. With Stan I wouldn't read too much into it, even on grass he's a legit contender at Wimbledon especially this year when not many are playing well. Kyrgios may be the biggest surprise of the day, the injury concern might be serious, and/or he is just being Nick and doesn't care about being on court. If he goes out early at Wimbledon there will be a lot of players breathing a big sigh of relief.

As for Roger there is only a concern, and a small one at that, if he loses early at Halle. Even then I think he can flip the switch at Wimbledon, he knows he should already have 8 or 9 Wimbledon's by now, it's not going to be so easy to wrestle it away from him this year.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

These grass results have to have Rafael Nadal champing at the bit! Roger out in first round last week, and Murray, Wawrinka and Raonic already out at Queen's Club.

Roger is beginning to kill his groundies again.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

There's an interesting anomaly that you people end up making in discussions that I have observed.

Roger's greatness is downplayed by many (most non-Fedfans) due to him winning 10 of his slams against non-Big 4. He won them against lesser players. So, let's give in to this point for once and consider him a pseudo great player, not really a Big 4 (that is a logical conclusion too, then).

For portraying the greatness of each of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray we keep saying that they played in the era of the Big 4 (we include Roger here). We might say that Nadal has had to face Roger in 9 slams en route to victory. "He had to beat the great Roger in 9 slams to win". Similar things can be said about Djokovic and Murray. We talk about Djokovic's victory over Roger and that he had had to overcome Federer in 2010-2011 and topple him in the rankings. He had to take away the HC supremacy from Roger. And then comes Murray who "lived in the era of the Big '4' and alongside Roger, so he is great".

To talk about the greatness of Djokovic-Nadal-Murray we use Roger as an instrument in the sense that beating Roger is greater than beating other greats. Something like this. But, we forget that we had downplayed Roger's greatness earlier in the weak era theory. So, how does he become an instrument to measure other elites' greatness?

And Roger really started to go down on HCs and GCs since 2010 Wimbly. That's a 29 year old Roger. So, beating a post-prime version of Roger who is a pseudo-great time and again probably isn't very credit-worthy. Here's taking away some kudos from Djokovic, Nadal and Murray each. This is the cost of the weak era theory.

Then we should believe that none of the Big 4 is really great by virtue of one theory or another (but a system of theories consistent with one another). And that the phrases like "Big 4" and "Golden Era" are farce. But, it's just not true. These 4 guys have been well above the field for a decade. To support what is obvious, the above theories have to be discarded, even the weak era theory from which other false conclusions may be wrongly done as seen above.

 

[Front242]

^ Fact is, many fans are extremely dumb and their bias makes it worse.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

These grass results have to have Rafael Nadal champing at the bit! Roger out in first round last week, and Murray, Wawrinka and Raonic already out at Queen's Club.

Didn't Rafa lose to Sabine Lisicki in Mallorca?

 

[atttomole]

He's still got to get past the first week at Wimbledon, but yes, you'd have to say his odds just went up a bit, if he makes it to the business-end of the tournament.

Predictions can not be easily made before a major tournament, especially Wimbledon, apart from the usual ones. The warm up season for Wimbledon is still very short, but it's generally known who the top contenders are.

 

[Moxie]

Didn't Rafa lose to Sabine Lisicki in Mallorca?

No, Sara Errani. She beat him with her serve.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Looks like Nole wants a bit warming up before Wimby. Wild carded to Eastbourne. Milos should ask for one too.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Brown loses to RBA. Was a good performance nevertheless, just couldn't keep his nerves. He does entertain you at times.

Next:

Zverev vs Kohlschreiber

Zverev looked good in the first match.

 

[Mary]

Looks like Nole wants a bit warming up before Wimby. Wild carded to Eastbourne. Milos should ask for one too.

He may not find it too warming! It's the most windy tennis court ever and he hates the wind. And weather here is due to break and get chilly and wet in a few days!

 

[Moxie]

He may not find it too warming! It's the most windy tennis court ever and he hates the wind. And weather here is due to break and get chilly and wet in a few days!

Interesting bit of local intel...thanks, Mary. Maybe doesn't sound like an ideal prep...probably wishes now he'd decided to go to Queen's, especially now that the field is wide open.

 

[Mary]

Interesting bit of local intel...thanks, Mary. Maybe doesn't sound like an ideal prep...probably wishes now he'd decided to go to Queen's, especially now that the field is wide open.

I don't think he liked Queen's much either! I think really he just preferred a rest and gentle warm up at Stoke Park ex after going deep in the FO. Now there is a bit more time before Wimbledon and he didn't play so many days at RG so it makes sense to get decent match practice.

Eastbourne is good in other ways - on the coast and invigorating. I had a friend who used to live facing the courts. We could get up onto her roof and see everything for free but risked being blown out to sea regularly!

 

[Denis]

I think it's a great decision. I was already looking out to see if he'd accepted any wild cards for this weeks events. He needs to start building from the bottom up. Surely the first 250 event he's entered in years (not counting the Qatar "250" event)? Belgrade maybe in 2012 or so.

 

[Moxie]

I think it's a great decision. I was already looking out to see if he'd accepted any wild cards for this weeks events. He needs to start building from the bottom up. Surely the first 250 event he's entered in years (not counting the Qatar "250" event)? Belgrade maybe in 2012 or so.

Yes, would be foolish not to. Also, first tune-up he's played between RG and Wimbledon since 2010.

 

[britbox]

OK. folks, It is time to move to greener pastures.

Here are the odds for different player to win Wimbledon as per bookies. I am listing everyone with a 1% or better chances.

1. Andy 11/4
2. Roger 3
3. Novak 11/2
4. Rafa 8
5. Raonic 12
6. Kyrgios 20
7. Sasha 25
8. Stan 28
9. Grigor / JMDP 33
10. Cilic / Thiem 40
11. Nishikori 66
12. Tsonga 80
13. Berdych 100

I will update this after each warm up tourney is over and after the draw is made. Do you think the above odds are reasonable? Discuss away.

Fed has now been installed as the favourite with most bookies, generally 5/2 but you can still get him at 3/1 with some.
Murray has drifted out to 3/1 - 10/3 - 7/2 range with most, likely after his capitulation at Queens.
Nadal is now third favourite with most, around 9/2, 5-1 mark.
Djoker is 11/2, 6-1 range.
Raonic drifting back to 14-1, although you can get him at 17-1 with BetDaq
Sascha has move into around 20/1
Kyrgios has drifted out -you can pick him up at 33/1 with some, although most still have him around 14 to 16/1. BetDaq offering 43/1 on Nicko.

 

[Carol]

How someone could forget this match? 11 hours and 5 minutes, 183 games, 980 points and 215 aces. Mohamed Lahyani was sitting on the chair 11 hours and meanwhile Isner commented "I'm feeling a little tired"

 

[Mary]

Years and years ago I saw the Gonzales/ Pasarell match. Very long, no tie breaks back then. First set lasted about 50 games. Nothing like as long as Mahut/Isner but it was an incredible long time to watch let alone to play.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

@Wimbledon gave wildcards to a geriatric player (Tommy Haas) and a teenager (Shapalov) in a nice contrast. Three other wild cards went to British Chaps. They are sitting on three more.