Early Talk about Roland Garros

Riotbeard

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Broken_Shoelace said:
GameSetAndMath said:
Oh, Boy. Do some folks think changing Avtar will have an effect on Rafa's form?. :puzzled

I don't know, does repeating over and over that Nadal will lose to "unnamed player" make it any more likely?

That's right villagers, get your pitchforks out, somebody isn't a fan of Rafa :angel:
 

nehmeth

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Riotbeard said:
That's right villagers, get your pitchforks out....

pitchforks-torches-mob.jpg
 

GameSetAndMath

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tented said:
Broken_Shoelace said:
the AntiPusher said:
DarthFed said:
Roger and Stan both figure to be big threats to Novak if that is the semi. Nole seems to be the only one to really bring out Roger's game on a consistent basis and the disdain is probably a big part of the reason for it. I still think Nole has a bigger chance of being upset than Rafa before the final.

This is amazingly true.. a bit of catch 22 for Roger, If he defeats Novak he takes out the biggest threat to Rafa's number 14. Can you believe some "other" Rafa fans actually root for Roger..

Yes, I can totally believe that. I love how people here act like it's some sort of unethical behavior to root for some player for self-serving reasons. If Novak Djokovic is the biggest threat to the player I root for, then I'll root for whoever he is playing against in hopes of him being sent out.

That's how most fans think. Except most won't admit it.

I'll admit it.

See your post #53 in this very same thread.
 

GameSetAndMath

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tented said:
Broken_Shoelace said:
the AntiPusher said:
DarthFed said:
Roger and Stan both figure to be big threats to Novak if that is the semi. Nole seems to be the only one to really bring out Roger's game on a consistent basis and the disdain is probably a big part of the reason for it. I still think Nole has a bigger chance of being upset than Rafa before the final.

This is amazingly true.. a bit of catch 22 for Roger, If he defeats Novak he takes out the biggest threat to Rafa's number 14. Can you believe some "other" Rafa fans actually root for Roger..

Yes, I can totally believe that. I love how people here act like it's some sort of unethical behavior to root for some player for self-serving reasons. If Novak Djokovic is the biggest threat to the player I root for, then I'll root for whoever he is playing against in hopes of him being sent out.

That's how most fans think. Except most won't admit it.

I'll admit it.

See your
post #53
in this very same thread.
 

GameSetAndMath

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tented said:
Broken_Shoelace said:
the AntiPusher said:
DarthFed said:
Roger and Stan both figure to be big threats to Novak if that is the semi. Nole seems to be the only one to really bring out Roger's game on a consistent basis and the disdain is probably a big part of the reason for it. I still think Nole has a bigger chance of being upset than Rafa before the final.

This is amazingly true.. a bit of catch 22 for Roger, If he defeats Novak he takes out the biggest threat to Rafa's number 14. Can you believe some "other" Rafa fans actually root for Roger..

Yes, I can totally believe that. I love how people here act like it's some sort of unethical behavior to root for some player for self-serving reasons. If Novak Djokovic is the biggest threat to the player I root for, then I'll root for whoever he is playing against in hopes of him being sent out.

That's how most fans think. Except most won't admit it.

I'll admit it.

See your post #53 in this very same thread.
 

tented

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GameSetAndMath said:
tented said:
Broken_Shoelace said:
the AntiPusher said:
DarthFed said:
Roger and Stan both figure to be big threats to Novak if that is the semi. Nole seems to be the only one to really bring out Roger's game on a consistent basis and the disdain is probably a big part of the reason for it. I still think Nole has a bigger chance of being upset than Rafa before the final.

This is amazingly true.. a bit of catch 22 for Roger, If he defeats Novak he takes out the biggest threat to Rafa's number 14. Can you believe some "other" Rafa fans actually root for Roger..

Yes, I can totally believe that. I love how people here act like it's some sort of unethical behavior to root for some player for self-serving reasons. If Novak Djokovic is the biggest threat to the player I root for, then I'll root for whoever he is playing against in hopes of him being sent out.

That's how most fans think. Except most won't admit it.

I'll admit it.

See your post #53 in this very same thread.

Contradictory, yet true. I do root against Djokovic, yet I also want Rafa to solve the riddle.
 

Moxie

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tented said:
GameSetAndMath said:
tented said:
Broken_Shoelace said:
the AntiPusher said:
This is amazingly true.. a bit of catch 22 for Roger, If he defeats Novak he takes out the biggest threat to Rafa's number 14. Can you believe some "other" Rafa fans actually root for Roger..

Yes, I can totally believe that. I love how people here act like it's some sort of unethical behavior to root for some player for self-serving reasons. If Novak Djokovic is the biggest threat to the player I root for, then I'll root for whoever he is playing against in hopes of him being sent out.

That's how most fans think. Except most won't admit it.

I'll admit it.

See your post #53 in this very same thread.

Contradictory, yet true. I do root against Djokovic, yet I also want Rafa to solve the riddle.

I agree with this. (And I went back to the earlier post cited.) The ideal final, I think for most, at RG, would be Nadal v. Djokovic. The ideal outcome would depend on various loyalties and personal preferences. It doesn't mean that we don't root against some that most threaten our favorites. It's not actually a contradiction, only human. I looked for a comment that I think was from Denisovich, though I couldn't find it on this thread, and anyway it was from a Djokovic fan, but the point was: they'd like Djokovic to face Nadal in the final and beat him, but there is also the calculation of ranking points, which was a smart thing to say, too. The best thing is to beat the arch-rival and win the title, but the key thing, I think we'd all admit, would be to win the title.
 

Moxie

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GameSetAndMath said:
I agree. I too would prefer Roger to beat Rafa at RG final.

Exactly! One hole in his nearly perfect resume, and what better year consider it as an option. Darth was bemoaning the potential Catch-22 of Roger defeating Novak in a semi-final, only to meet Nadal again in a final, saying that he might be doing in his own legacy. But Federer would never look at it that way. He'd fancy his chances, even more than in 2011, when he played a good match against Rafa. That one could easily have gone to five. If you're not in it, you can't win it.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Kamakshi says the following in an ESPN Article.

Although the rankings measure a player's year-round performance, recent results and playing conditions are also important in assessing the field going into a Grand Slam. Wimbledon has its grass-court seedings formula, which moves up those who have done well on that surface in the past. The US Open has the US Open Series, and gives bonuses to those who do the best coming into the tournament. But the French Open confers no privilege for succeeding on clay, although some players enjoy a distinct advantage on it -- even in these days of reduced specialization.

Still, seeing how players have done in similar conditions can identify the favorites and indicate who might be dangerous. So here's a look at which players have collected the most clay-court points in the tournaments leading into the year's second major and what it might mean for the French Open.

2014 clay-court rankings (men)
1. Rafael Nadal 1,870
2. Novak Djokovic 1,360
3. Stanislas Wawrinka 1,100
4. Kei Nishikori 1,100
5. David Ferrer 900
6. Grigor Dimitrov 790
7. Milos Raonic 675
8. Roger Federer 610
9. Santiago Giraldo 605
10. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 475
T-11. Tomas Berdych 465
T-11. Nicolas Almagro 465
13. Roberto Bautista Agut 435
14. Ernests Gulbis 370
15. Fernando Verdasco 340
16. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 315

* Consists of ATP clay-court tournaments played between Miami and the week before the French Open.

Seeing Rafael Nadal's name at the top is unexpectedly expected this year, with the Spaniard looking the shakiest he has on clay since becoming a top player. But, after showing for so long how formidable he is when playing well, he is now showing how hard he is to beat even when he's not playing well. In a clay-court season marked by inconsistency and absences, he has competed week in and week out and managed to finish well ahead of everyone else with a title at Madrid and a final in Rome.

Novak Djokovic stands No. 2 with just two events played and showed little sign of his wrist injury while winning Rome last week. He and Nadal are the front-runners, in clay points and for the French Open, by some margin. The top four or five players are also well ahead of the rest, and the most surprising name in this group is Kei Nishikori. He has had two strong performances, winning an upset-filled tournament in Barcelona and reaching the final of Madrid -- and might have been higher if he had managed to finish what he started against Nadal in the final. The question now is whether he can maintain his recent level at the French Open.

Stanislas Wawrinka had one standout result, winning Monte Carlo, but did little at the other Masters events. His season of extremes continues. And David Ferrer, despite looking a little vulnerable coming in, has been his consistent self.

Behind them are two emerging talents who both made the semifinals of Rome: Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic. Dimitrov has had two strong events, continuing his improving results this year. Raonic has been surprisingly consistent on the clay, which is especially impressive given that it's not suited to his big-serving game. They could make their sections of the draw very interesting. Then there's Roger Federer, who reached the final in Monte Carlo before becoming father to twin boys and going out in the first round of Rome. That means it's anyone's guess what he might do in Paris.

Also notable are players who are used to clay and are having good runs, making them upset threats. That includes Santiago Giraldo, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Nicolas Almagro. The latter looked as if he was turning things around, reaching the final of Houston and defeating Nadal at Barcelona, but Almagro drew Andy Murray in the first round of Madrid and has been dealing with injury. But he could still have a good run at the French Open. Houston champ Fernando Verdasco, however, hasn't followed that victory with anything significant.

There are also a few top names who aren't there. This includes Murray, who has played only two events but did take Nadal to three sets at Rome, and Fabio Fognini, who had won 23 of 25 clay-court matches until he wobbled physically and mentally in the European clay events. Either Fognini could show up at the French Open next week. And John Isner, the top-ranked American, is having problems playing outside the United States, as usual.
 

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^ That's a great recap going in, though I wonder that they don't include So. American clay in the results, or Houston or Casablanca. Not only would it bump Nadal by 500 points, it might change the dynamic of the list. I did the math, adding clay points before Miami. I'll put them up in a minute.
 

Moxie

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If you add the points for ALL the clay tournaments this year, (and I only explored points for guys already on this list,) this is what I come up with:

2014 clay-court rankings (men)

1. Rafael Nadal 2,370
2. Novak Djokovic 1,360
3. Stanislas Wawrinka 1,100
4. David Ferrer 1,300
5. Kei Nishikori 1,100
6. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 927
7. Nicolas Almagro 925
8. Grigor Dimitrov 790
9. Santiago Giraldo 715
10. Milos Raonic 675
11. Roger Federer 610
12. Fernando Verdasco 590 (won Houston)
13. Tomas Berdych 465
14. Roberto Bautista Agut 435
15. Ernests Gulbis 370
16. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 315

Look at GGLopez at #6. I'd be looking at him as a potential spoiler at RG.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Moxie629 said:
^ That's a great recap going in, though I wonder that they don't include So. American clay in the results, or Houston or Casablanca. Not only would it bump Nadal by 500 points, it might change the dynamic of the list. I did the math, adding clay points before Miami. I'll put them up in a minute.

It includes all clay points won after Miami. It does not include south American clay
points as that part of the season is not considered as a warm-up to RG. In particular,
It includes the points won in Houston and Morocco.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Moxie629 said:
If you add the points for ALL the clay tournaments this year, (and I only explored points for guys already on this list,) this is what I come up with:

2014 clay-court rankings (men)

1. Rafael Nadal 2,370
2. Novak Djokovic 1,360
3. Stanislas Wawrinka 1,100
4. David Ferrer 1,300
5. Kei Nishikori 1,100
6. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 927
7. Nicolas Almagro 925
8. Grigor Dimitrov 790
9. Santiago Giraldo 715
10. Milos Raonic 675
11. Roger Federer 610
12. Fernando Verdasco 590 (won Houston)
13. Tomas Berdych 465
14. Roberto Bautista Agut 435
15. Ernests Gulbis 370
16. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 315

Look at GGLopez at #6. I'd be looking at him as a potential spoiler at RG.

I believe totals are wrong in view of my previous post.
 

Moxie

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GameSetAndMath said:
Moxie629 said:
^ That's a great recap going in, though I wonder that they don't include So. American clay in the results, or Houston or Casablanca. Not only would it bump Nadal by 500 points, it might change the dynamic of the list. I did the math, adding clay points before Miami. I'll put them up in a minute.

It includes all clay points won after Miami. It does not include south American clay
points as that part of the season is not considered as a warm-up to RG. In particular,
It includes the points won in Houston and Morocco.

Then I have to revise the list. But I don't see why it's not worth having So. American results on clay in there…if you want to figure who to pick early in your draw at RG. I don't know that a 'warm-up' is an official term. Anyway, no one ever acts like hard-court results aren't prognostication of other HC events. So clay-court results should figure as a help to understand how players might do at the clay Major.
 

GameSetAndMath

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The problem is there are three clay seasons in the ATP calendar

1. A bunch of (primarily SA) tourneys that acts as a warm up to Indian Wells. :laydownlaughing

2. Clay tourney after Miami that act as a warm up to RG.

3. Post RG Clay tourneys that act as a warm up to USO. :laydownlaughing

If I remember right there even used to be clay tourney after USO in the not so distant past.

When you are trying to use the clay points as a predictor for RG, it makes sense to use
only item 2 above.
 

Moxie

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If you add the points for ALL the clay tournaments this year, (and I only explored points for guys already on this list,) this is what I come up with:

2014 clay-court rankings (men)

1. Rafael Nadal 2,370
2. Novak Djokovic 1,360
3. David Ferrer 1,300
T-4. Stanislas Wawrinka 1,100
T-4. Kei Nishikori 1,100
5. Nicolas Almagro 925
6. Grigor Dimitrov 790
7. Santiago Giraldo 715
8. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 677
9. Milos Raonic 675
10. Roger Federer 610
11. Fernando Verdasco 340
12. Tomas Berdych 465
13. Roberto Bautista Agut 435
14. Ernests Gulbis 370
15. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 315

Fixed, I hope. Anyway, I still think it's worth including all clay events. NOT for the the sake of Nadal's points…we can all see where he is about now…but for the sake of other players.

EDIT: Ferrer actually moved up.
 

Moxie

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GameSetAndMath said:
The problem is there are three clay seasons in the ATP calendar

1. A bunch of (primarily SA) tourneys that acts as a warm up to Indian Wells. :laydownlaughing

2. Clay tourney after Miami that act as a warm up to RG.

3. Post RG Clay tourneys that act as a warm up to USO. :laydownlaughing

If I remember right there even used to be clay tourney after USO in the not so distant past.

When you are trying to use the clay points as a predictor for RG, it makes sense to use
only item 2 above.

There is a problem, as I see it, as to how you categorize the So. American Swing. It's not a warm up to IW. It's a warm up for the (mostly) also-rans and clay-courters to gain points and to gain position for the European clay swing.

The main events in Europe are tune-ups for the elite players, but it doesn't minimalize the jockeying for position that goes on before, including in So. America.

On your #3, I believe we agree: Post Wimbledon, clay events are just ways for some players to bolster their point count. Same with the post-Wimbledon grass events that no big players go to.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Moxie629 said:
GameSetAndMath said:
The problem is there are three clay seasons in the ATP calendar

1. A bunch of (primarily SA) tourneys that acts as a warm up to Indian Wells. :laydownlaughing

2. Clay tourney after Miami that act as a warm up to RG.

3. Post RG Clay tourneys that act as a warm up to USO. :laydownlaughing

If I remember right there even used to be clay tourney after USO in the not so distant past.

When you are trying to use the clay points as a predictor for RG, it makes sense to use
only item 2 above.

There is a problem, as I see it, as to how you categorize the So. American Swing. It's not a warm up to IW. It's a warm up for the (mostly) also-rans and clay-courters to gain points and to gain position for the European clay swing.

The main events in Europe are tune-ups for the elite players, but it doesn't minimalize the jockeying for position that goes on before, including in So. America.

On your #3, I believe we agree: Post Wimbledon, clay events are just ways for some players to bolster their point count. Same with the post-Wimbledon grass events that no big players go to.

You are still missing the point. There are also events for Tom, Dick and Harry during the
actual warmup season for RG such as Bucharest, Oeiras etc. The differentiation is not based
on elite/non-elite. It is based on whether it is reasonable to expect a performance in a clay
tournament as a predictor for RG performance. Kamakshi's totals include not just main
events and also side events as long as they happen after Miami and before RG.
 
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