Early Roland Garros Chat

[the AntiPusher]

As far as Roger skipping RG goes, think of it this way: Already he realizes it is a very low probability tournament. Further, and more importantly, he won't have played in a couple months, then to come back for a one big clay tournament, before going to grass...that might be hard to adjust to. He has his eye on Wimbledon and playing RG could actually impact his chances. Even though I'm disappointed, I get it.

Roger skipped RG because his serve and ground strokes wasnt going to get him easy free points whereas it did so handily on the hardcourts. Roger wasnt mentality ready to endured the grueling clay surfaces and matches of RG. Plain and simple.. I never expected him to participate or ever return to RG. Makes no sense to put himself in a area when he wasnt going to playing from a position of strength.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The first part...the Brad Gilbert part...of your argument makes sense. He doesn't want to switch horses mid-stream. The second part doesn't. He used to be willing to play more base-line tennis, and fancied his chances at the French, even when Rafa dominated the clay season. It's hard to imagine, though, if Rafa hadn't been so dominant thus far in the clay season, and with Andy and Novak both MIA, that he wouldn't have given RG a twirl this year.

If Roger was making a decision considering what is happening during the clay season, he probably would have decided to take a wild card in Rome and play RG. This is because folks like Novak, Stan and Andy have zero momentum in the clay season. Only person winning is Rafa and against whom Roger had won four matches in a row, even though not on clay. Also, even though Rafa was winning, he pretty much was not having any decent opposition. So, the actual level of Rafa is certainly less that of the Rafa to whom Roger lost five times at RG. So, Roger would have estimated his chance of going deep to be very high and would have estimated his chance of winning to be as high as it ever gets since 2009.

Roger simply did not consider these things as BG says. He was concerned about changing his style to regular play and then changing it back to ultra aggressive play. He thought it much like sacrificing a pawn to capture a valued piece in chess.

 

[Moxie]

If Roger was making a decision considering what is happening during the clay season, he probably would have decided to take a wild card in Rome and play RG. This is because folks like Novak, Stan and Andy have zero momentum in the clay season. Only person winning is Rafa and against whom Roger had won four matches in a row, even though not on clay. Also, even though Rafa was winning, he pretty much was not having any decent opposition. So, the actual level of Rafa is certainly less that of the Rafa to whom Roger lost five times at RG. So, Roger would have estimated his chance of going deep to be very high and would have estimated his chance of winning to be as high as it ever gets since 2009.

Roger simply did not consider these things as BG says. He was concerned about changing his style to regular play and then changing it back to ultra aggressive play. He thought it much like sacrificing a pawn to capture a valued piece in chess.

I see it the way you do, though it's a tight call. (And I don't agree with your metaphor that makes RG a "pawn," but I get the point. ) @britbox made an interesting point a while back on DT that he didn't think Roger would skip it, as it would eliminate any chance - however remote - of the CYGS. But it's not hard to see the calculation he made and trust him on it. Still, there's also a better chance that Murray and Djokovic find their range by mid-June than in the next 3 weeks.

 

[britbox]

Roger skipped RG because his serve and ground strokes wasnt going to get him easy free points whereas it did so handily on the hardcourts. Roger wasnt mentality ready to endured the grueling clay surfaces and matches of RG. Plain and simple.. I never expected him to participate or ever return to RG. Makes no sense to put himself in a area when he wasnt going to playing from a position of strength.

If he's skipped it this year after 3 big tourney wins then you might be right.

Maybe he'd return one last time in a farewell year, but as for going with serious intentions, he might be done on clay.

 

[Frode789]

I was really sad to see Federer withdraw from RG. I really think he should have played 1 masters on clay + RG. His chances this year hasn't been this high for years. 2011 to be exact. So when he even then decides to pull out. Well, pretty much confirms that he is mostly done with clay all together. I highly doubt he will next year. He is 1 year older. Why should he? Sad really. I wanted to see him on clay after his improved play. Even just for one more RG.

 

[Mastoor]

Nice to see you, Mastoor. It's been a while. Too early to crown Nadal, and I won't be shocked to see Novak in much better form in Rome and/or RG. (You could leave out the stabbing as an option...Yikes!)


I think he would have had a significant chance, better than another he's likely to get, but I'd buy "too risky." Roger has always been good about his choices in scheduling.

Hi Moxie, I tried to be humorous. Of course it won't happen to Rafa or anyone else.

I still hope Nole may raise his level to his old one by RG, but as of today, i don't see Rafa has a rival on clay this year.

 

[Moxie]

Hi Moxie, I tried to be humorous. Of course it won't happen to Rafa or anyone else.

I still hope Nole may raise his level to his old one by RG, but as of today, i don't see Rafa has a rival on clay this year.

Of course, and God forbid. We're all looking for Nole, and Andy, frankly, to raise their levels to something like where they were. It's rather a weird year, so far. I'm hoping my best for Rafa and RG, but won't relax until he bites that trophy. We Rafa fans have spent a lot of time wandering in the weeds with our favorite. All I can say is: keep the faith. And keep posting. It's good to see you around.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am picking Rafa (uconditional), Thiem (assuming he does not land in the same quarter as Rafa) and Stan (assuming he does not go on to win Geneva) as three of the four semi-finalists. I am keeping my fingers crossed on the fourth one. If Novak wins Rome, I will give the 4th spot to Novak. Anything less than that I have to go back to drawing board.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Given the rankings of Rafa and Thiem, it is quite possible (25% chance) that they may be drawn in the same quarter. That would be a shame. Hope it does not happen.

 

[isabelle]

Given the rankings of Rafa and Thiem, it is quite possible (25% chance) that they may be drawn in the same quarter. That would be a shame. Hope it does not happen.

withe the same result than in Roma ? Thiem seems to improve fast and he could trouble Manacor's bull in RG

 

[Carol]

It would be great if Rafa and Thiem may be drawn in the same quarter or any time, I want to see that match :whistle:

 

[the AntiPusher]

It would be great if Rafa and Thiem may be drawn in the same quarter or any time, I want to see that match :whistle:

It would be a good match but the results would be more like Madrid and Barcelona .. Rafa would win against the 23 year old player in a best of 5 format.

 

[El Dude]

It doesn't matter, because Novak is going to beat Rafa no matter what Rafa does.

 

[the AntiPusher]

It doesn't matter, because Novak is going to beat Rafa no matter what Rafa does.

Novak wont make it past Stan

 

[Moxie]

It doesn't matter, because Novak is going to beat Rafa no matter what Rafa does.

I guess you believe that all of Novak's problems are now behind him.

 

[El Dude]

Novak beats Rafa, Stan beats Novak, Thiem beats Stan.

 

[El Dude]

I guess you believe that all of Novak's problems are now behind him.

Well, I'm mainly just poking at AP and Carol, but I do think Novak made a huge step today. Maybe not "all of his problems," but he's going in the right direction.

 

[Moxie]

Well, I'm mainly just poking at AP and Carol, but I do think Novak made a huge step today. Maybe not "all of his problems," but he's going in the right direction.

For sure. And OK, I get it if you're just goading those 2, so I won't accuse you of bandwagoning the results of yesterday and today, while ignoring that last Rafa/Novak match. Djoker seems to have found his his form in the nick of time for RG, but it remains to be seen how it holds up day-in/day-out in best of 5 so soon, and with no coach or trainer.

 

[El Dude]

Well, I think the big thing is that he proved he can reach a high level. When was the last time we saw this level from him? But, as you said, it is one thing to do it in two sets, quite another in seven best-of-fives.

 

[Carol]

I don't think Novak is doing so well but Thiem has helped him to look better because his game has been horrible, 10.000 errors trying to do as well as yesterday with Rafa but nothing was working well today, he played a awful match. I don't know if he was exhausted or impossible to repeat the good shots which Rafa help him too but the poor guy looked worse than an amateur