Early Roland Garros Chat

[GameSetAndMath]

Do you actually believe a 37 year old tennis player is gonna play RG next year because he announced it on his website? Come on, let's me tell you a tale about a bigot reality television show guy trying to be the President of the free world.

Yes, it is hard to believe that RF will be playing RG next year, when he has skipped it in both 2016 and 2017.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, it is hard to believe that RF will be playing RG next year, when he has skipped it in both 2016 and 2017.

Given that he probably had his last best shot at RG this year, he may not play again until his victory lap, whenever that comes.

 

[Front242]

The way he's been playing he was the number 2 favourite (don't care what the bookies odds say, he WAS the 2nd best shot at winning it imo) so it really sucks he's skipping it. No one currently on tour is playing well enough to beat Nadal except him which will make for a very boring tournament.

 

[Moxie]

The way he's been playing he was the number 2 favourite (don't care what the bookies odds say, he WAS the 2nd best shot at winning it imo) so it really sucks he's skipping it. No one currently on tour is playing well enough to beat Nadal except him which will make for a very boring tournament.

Hey, Front! I agree that he has been the biggest problem for Nadal this year, and I would also have given him better odds than the bookies at RG. However, Rafa in best of 5 on clay is a different deal, and looking at Nadal's current form, I can see why Roger decided to put his effort onto grass, and protect his knee/back/whatever. But any Major is going to miss Fed and I'm sorry he's not playing, as well. I don't think it will be a boring tournament, though. Lots of changes in fortunes so far this year.

 

[Carol]

I really would have liked that Roger would have played in RG though it would have been very unusual to play a GS without have played any tournament in that surface before

 

[Mastoor]

This thread should be called "Everything else but the winner". Alternatively, we can discuss who will win RG if Rafa gets sick or injured or backstabbed by a tennis fan from Hamburg. That's why I hope Nole will get in form in time to grab a chance. ;-)

 

[El Dude]

Bummer, mainly because it means another few weeks without seeing Roger play. I guess he really thinks that it is too risky to play clay, and/or he doesn't have a significant chance. Oh well, Stuttgart it is!

 

[Moxie]

This thread should be called "Everything else but the winner". Alternatively, we can discuss who will win RG if Rafa gets sick or injured or backstabbed by a tennis fan from Hamburg. That's why I hope Nole will get in form in time to grab a chance. ;-)

Nice to see you, Mastoor. It's been a while. Too early to crown Nadal, and I won't be shocked to see Novak in much better form in Rome and/or RG. (You could leave out the stabbing as an option...Yikes!)

Bummer, mainly because it means another few weeks without seeing Roger play. I guess he really thinks that it is too risky to play clay, and/or he doesn't have a significant chance. Oh well, Stuttgart it is!

I think he would have had a significant chance, better than another he's likely to get, but I'd buy "too risky." Roger has always been good about his choices in scheduling.

 

[El Dude]

My fellow Fedfans might not like this, but I'm wondering if seeing Rafa's current form played a part. I mean, Roger has never been one to shirk a challenge, but maybe also he thinks that he'd have to go all out to beat Rafa at Roland Garros, and even then he probably wouldn't be able to do it, and he just doesn't want to risk his significantly better chances of #19 at Wimbledon.

But Rafa's chances just went from very good to even better. The only players that could possibly beat him at RG are Stanimal in beast mode or a resurgent Novak. The former is a crap-shoot, and we've seen absolutely zero sign of the latter. I'd like to think someone like Thiem could step up, but I just don't see it - not at Roland Garros.

 

[Moxie]

My fellow Fedfans might not like this, but I'm wondering if seeing Rafa's current form played a part. I mean, Roger has never been one to shirk a challenge, but maybe also he thinks that he'd have to go all out to beat Rafa at Roland Garros, and even then he probably wouldn't be able to do it, and he just doesn't want to risk his significantly better chances of #19 at Wimbledon.

But Rafa's chances just went from very good to even better. The only players that could possibly beat him at RG are Stanimal in beast mode or a resurgent Novak. The former is a crap-shoot, and we've seen absolutely zero sign of the latter. I'd like to think someone like Thiem could step up, but I just don't see it - not at Roland Garros.

Had Nadal not done quite so well, I thought Roger might enter Rome to protect his #4 ranking for RG, and get in some clay competition, then go for a shot at the French again. While I'm a tiny bit surprised he didn't go for it, given how Murray and Djokovic still haven't stepped up, I do think he would have been looking for a chink in Nadal's armor to make it worth the risk of Wimbledon. As things have shaken out, I wouldn't say he shirked the challenge, rather that he weighed the odds, thought of his knee and the clay, and decided to save himself for the better chance at another Major. (However miraculous he seems at 35, he is, well, 35.)

Obviously, Rome is still to be decided, and RG is a ways away. And I don't want to jinx Rafa. But Roger pulling out does make Nadal's chances that bit better, looking at the year so far.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My fellow Fedfans might not like this, but I'm wondering if seeing Rafa's current form played a part. I mean, Roger has never been one to shirk a challenge, but maybe also he thinks that he'd have to go all out to beat Rafa at Roland Garros, and even then he probably wouldn't be able to do it, and he just doesn't want to risk his significantly better chances of #19 at Wimbledon.

But Rafa's chances just went from very good to even better. The only players that could possibly beat him at RG are Stanimal in beast mode or a resurgent Novak. The former is a crap-shoot, and we've seen absolutely zero sign of the latter. I'd like to think someone like Thiem could step up, but I just don't see it - not at Roland Garros.

Brad Gilbert actually tweeted that he does not think that Rafa's sweep of the clay season had any bearing on Fed's decision. I think the main issue is that he is playing ultra aggressive game right now and that style has to be changed at least a bit at RG. That would be an inconvenient interim change in style that may hamper his chances at Wimbledon and USO.

Roger is not of the type who sees which way the wind blows in making his decisions. He thinks mostly as to what will be good for him.

If he had to skip RG due to Rafa's sweep of clay season, he should have skipped many times before.

 

[Fiero425]

It only made sense for Roger to skip the French Open altogether! It's just not worth it; been quite fortunate so far! Why gamble with long, depleting matches on clay in that hot sun at his age? It just makes no sense; even Lendl skipped it near the end of his career and no one more fit than him! - OBTW, congrats to all concerned! Just came over to check out the new merged site and it looks good! Good luck with it!

 

[Moxie]

Brad Gilbert actually tweeted that he does not think that Rafa's sweep of the clay season had any bearing on Fed's decision. I think the main issue is that he is playing ultra aggressive game right now and that style has to be changed at least a bit at RG. That would be an inconvenient interim change in style that may hamper his chances at Wimbledon and USO.

Roger is not of the type who sees which way the wind blows in making his decisions. He thinks mostly as to what will be good for him.

If he had to skip RG due to Rafa's sweep of clay season, he should have skipped many times before.

The first part...the Brad Gilbert part...of your argument makes sense. He doesn't want to switch horses mid-stream. The second part doesn't. He used to be willing to play more base-line tennis, and fancied his chances at the French, even when Rafa dominated the clay season. It's hard to imagine, though, if Rafa hadn't been so dominant thus far in the clay season, and with Andy and Novak both MIA, that he wouldn't have given RG a twirl this year.

 

[El Dude]

I don't know, Moxie, it makes sense to me in that Roger was so locked in with his style - he lost only once in 20 matches! That's peak level performance. The point being, I don't think he wants to rock the boat or change anything that he's doing.

Now if it was only that, then I think he would have played. But coupling that with, as you said, his knees on clay, and he did a simple (and very Swiss) cost-benefit analysis and decided he would prefer taking the increased chances at Wimbledon and the US Open than the less likely risk of winning Roland Garros.

All that said, as a tennis fan I hope to see Rafa challenged. If he just breezes to a RG title, it will be a frightful bore. Hopefully someone like Thiem or Goffin or even Nishikori can take a set or two off of him to make things interesting.

 

[Carol]

I don't know, Moxie, it makes sense to me in that Roger was so locked in with his style - he lost only once in 20 matches! That's peak level performance. The point being, I don't think he wants to rock the boat or change anything that he's doing.

Now if it was only that, then I think he would have played. But coupling that with, as you said, his knees on clay, and he did a simple (and very Swiss) cost-benefit analysis and decided he would prefer taking the increased chances at Wimbledon and the US Open than the less likely risk of winning Roland Garros.

All that said, as a tennis fan I hope to see Rafa challenged. If he just breezes to a RG title, it will be a frightful bore. Hopefully someone like Thiem or Goffin or even Nishikori can take a set or two off of him to make things interesting.

For you maybe it will be bore but for many tennis followers if Rafa would win his 10 title would be extraordinary
We'll see Wimbledon but I hope to see a new winner

 

[Moxie]

I don't know, Moxie, it makes sense to me in that Roger was so locked in with his style - he lost only once in 20 matches! That's peak level performance. The point being, I don't think he wants to rock the boat or change anything that he's doing.

Now if it was only that, then I think he would have played. But coupling that with, as you said, his knees on clay, and he did a simple (and very Swiss) cost-benefit analysis and decided he would prefer taking the increased chances at Wimbledon and the US Open than the less likely risk of winning Roland Garros.

All that said, as a tennis fan I hope to see Rafa challenged. If he just breezes to a RG title, it will be a frightful bore. Hopefully someone like Thiem or Goffin or even Nishikori can take a set or two off of him to make things interesting.

Hey, you were the guy that started with the idea that Rafa playing so well on clay was a factor. I'm riding on your up-draft on that. And I agreed with GSM/Brad Gilbert that he didn't want to change what he was doing before you did. Anyway, I do get that point. I would never disagree with Roger about his scheduling.

Whatever happens in the next 4 weeks, I don't think Rafa is going to breeze to a RG title. It's not his way. I hope with all my heart that he wins it again, but this isn't 2008, and he's not 21. There will be scrapping. And there's always the potential banana skin along the way, on an off-day. I think we all agree he'd be the rightful owner of the big crown at the end of this clay season, but that's not the way it works. And do remember: there will be plenty of matches played between now and early June that don't involve Nadal, so there's still lots of opportunity for drama. I know it's more boring for Fed fans that he won't be playing, but there's still a lot going on in tennis at the moment. You're a fan of the next wave, and they seem to be featuring this year in a pretty big way.

 

[El Dude]

LOL, Carol always wants to make this a partisan thing, perhaps because she doesn't understand being a tennis fan first, a fan of a particular player second. But to clarify, I'm not saying it will be boring if Nadal wins, but that it will be boring if he isn't challenged ("breezes"). I wouldn't be upset if he wins; I like Rafa, and would like to see him win another. I just want to see a dramatic, nail-biting Slam like AO was.

 

[El Dude]

But yeah, I hear you Moxie. I'm a also a bit of a closet Grigor fan, which isn't very fun. There are tons of players that I hope to see do well, and the whole NextGen cohort that I avidly follow. But the Slams are the cream of the crop, and regardless of who wins I like to see high drama.

 

[Fiero425]

Hey, you were the guy that started with the idea that Rafa playing so well on clay was a factor. I'm riding on your up-draft on that. And I agreed with GSM/Brad Gilbert that he didn't want to change what he was doing before you did. Anyway, I do get that point. I would never disagree with Roger about his scheduling.

Whatever happens in the next 4 weeks, I don't think Rafa is going to breeze to a RG title. It's not his way. I hope with all my heart that he wins it again, but this isn't 2008, and he's not 21. There will be scrapping. And there's always the potential banana skin along the way, on an off-day. I think we all agree he'd be the rightful owner of the big crown at the end of this clay season, but that's not the way it works. And do remember: there will be plenty of matches played between now and early June that don't involve Nadal, so there's still lots of opportunity for drama. I know it's more boring for Fed fans that he won't be playing, but there's still a lot going on in tennis at the moment. You're a fan of the next wave, and they seem to be featuring this year in a pretty big way.

We can only hope! What would that say about the tour to allow Fedal to continue dominating like it's 2006? This might be the last chance for Nole to "bring it" and salvage his legacy! He's accomplished so much, many of us were ready to anoint him higher than Nadal even though 2 majors behind! If Rafa picks up another FO! That could be it; Nole might as well cash in his chips and resign to being the best family man he can be!

 

[britbox]

We can only hope! What would that say about the tour to allow Fedal to continue dominating like it's 2006? This might be the last chance for Nole to "bring it" and salvage his legacy! He's accomplished so much, many of us were ready to anoint him higher than Nadal even though 2 majors behind! If Rafa picks up another FO! That could be it; Nole might as well cash in his chips and resign to being the best family man he can be!

Salvage his legacy? He's already got a 12 slam legacy... that isn't going south. His (Djokers) legacy is already cast in stone... Now what you're really saying, is that you don't like the thought of Nadal strengthening his.

I think it's more of a WHEN for Djokovic rather than IF. Might not be on the immediate horizon because he seems to be in a mess, but I'd wager he'll have a second (or should that be third) coming at some point.