Early French Open Ruminations

[GameSetAndMath]

The betting Market after the withdrawal.

1. Novak 5/6
2. Rafa 4
3. Andy 5
4. Stan 20
5. Kei 26
6. Thiem 42
7. Monfils 66
8. Kyrgios 80
9. Berdych, Tsonga 100
10. Raonic 120
11. Ferrer 150
12. Goffin 200

 

[Carol]

I think the Roger decision is not just helping Rafa, Novak and Muzz probably are happy thinking that they won't play to Rafa in the QF

 

[the AntiPusher]

So, the blueprint for Novak's failure at RG is ready. Last year, he played Rafa in QF and then had to fend off a tough Andy over a course of 2 days and then succumbed to Red Hot Stan. In Rome, after playing tough matches against Belluci, Rafa and Kei, finally he succumbed to Andy. So, while no single player can get rid of Novak all by himself, they can pummel Novak steadily and thus prepare for his eventual demise.
Now, here is a request for the draw gods. Let Novak get the following draw (and in the later rounds
let him play consecutively for four days due to bad weather).

1st Round: Belluci
2nd Round: Zverev
3rd Round: Kohlschrbrier
4th Round: Thiem
QF: Rafa
SF: (hot) Stan
F: Andy

Revised request to draw gods due to Fed's withdrawal. Let Novak's draw be

1st Round: Belluci
2nd Round: Zverev
3rd Round: Kohlschrbrier
4th Round: Thiem
QF: Kei
SF: Rafa
F: Andy

It could look like this.. #1 and #2 are set.. However depends on how the draw falls .. 3 could fall into #1 half and #4 could fall into #2 half of the draw

1st Round: Belluci
2nd Round: Zverev
3rd Round: Kohlschrbrier
4th Round: Thiem
QF: Kei
SF: Stan
F: Rafa

 

[Front242]

I think the Roger decision is not just helping Rafa, Novak and Muzz probably are happy thinking that they won't play to Rafa in the QF

I think the complete opposite actually. Everyone knows Nadal plays better when more confident and confidence builds from winning matches. Meeting Nadal in the quarters would have been an easier match for the opponent. Next round he's already won one more match and gaining momentum. Federer pulling out helped no one but Nadal and screwed the rest of them.

 

[herios]

Got a few days; could still end up being a LL couldn't he? Let me go look!

No, he will not.
Stakhovsky got eliminated in R2, the LL will be the top ranked who is eliminated in R3 of qualifications.

LL is not necessarily the top ranked loser of R3. LL will be randomly drawn from one of the losers in R3 of Quals and in fact that is why they are called "Lucky" Losers.

Where did you get your information from? :huh:

Look what Wikipedia says:

In tennis, the rule for choosing a player to enter the main draw as a lucky loser is as follows: from all players eliminated in the final round of qualifying, the highest-ranked player in the ATP or WTA rankings is the first one to enter the draw, followed by the second highest-ranked player and so on (if more players withdrew before the start of the tournament). On rare occasions that there are more late withdrawals than losers in the last qualifying rounds or players eligible for lucky losers are not available, a player who lost in the penultimate round of qualifying may enter as lucky loser.

 

[Carol]

I think the Roger decision is not just helping Rafa, Novak and Muzz probably are happy thinking that they won't play to Rafa in the QF

I think the complete opposite actually. Everyone knows Nadal plays better when more confident and confidence builds from winning matches. Meeting Nadal in the quarters would have been an easier match for the opponent. Next round he's already won one more match and gaining momentum. Federer pulling out helped no one but Nadal and screwed the rest of them.

Agreed with as more Rafa advances as better he plays but to say that meeting Nadal in the QF would have been an easier match for the opponent is laughable :lolz:

 

[Front242]

I think the Roger decision is not just helping Rafa, Novak and Muzz probably are happy thinking that they won't play to Rafa in the QF

I think the complete opposite actually. Everyone knows Nadal plays better when more confident and confidence builds from winning matches. Meeting Nadal in the quarters would have been an easier match for the opponent. Next round he's already won one more match and gaining momentum. Federer pulling out helped no one but Nadal and screwed the rest of them.

Agreed with as more Rafa advances as better he plays but to say that meeting Nadal in the QF would have been an easier match for the opponent is laughable :lolz:

You just said you agree he plays better the more he advances so how is it laughable that opponents now meet him later than sooner? :s

 

[Carol]

I think the complete opposite actually. Everyone knows Nadal plays better when more confident and confidence builds from winning matches. Meeting Nadal in the quarters would have been an easier match for the opponent. Next round he's already won one more match and gaining momentum. Federer pulling out helped no one but Nadal and screwed the rest of them.

Agreed with as more Rafa advances as better he plays but to say that meeting Nadal in the QF would have been an easier match for the opponent is laughable :lolz:

You just said you agree he plays better the more he advances so how is it laughable that opponents now meet him later than sooner? :s

Because if he plays well (he does now) it doesn't matter, his opponent won't have a "easy' win, he has beaten them before in the QF and he can do now too

 

[GameSetAndMath]

No, he will not.
Stakhovsky got eliminated in R2, the LL will be the top ranked who is eliminated in R3 of qualifications.

LL is not necessarily the top ranked loser of R3. LL will be randomly drawn from one of the losers in R3 of Quals and in fact that is why they are called "Lucky" Losers.

Where did you get your information from? :huh:

Look what Wikipedia says:

In tennis, the rule for choosing a player to enter the main draw as a lucky loser is as follows: from all players eliminated in the final round of qualifying, the highest-ranked player in the ATP or WTA rankings is the first one to enter the draw, followed by the second highest-ranked player and so on (if more players withdrew before the start of the tournament). On rare occasions that there are more late withdrawals than losers in the last qualifying rounds or players eligible for lucky losers are not available, a player who lost in the penultimate round of qualifying may enter as lucky loser.

That applies if the vacancy is created after the quals are over. If the vacancy is created before the last round of the quals is over as is the case right now, what I said (randomly select one of the losers of the last round) is what applies. I will post a link to the actual rules later. I believe I have done this once before.

The motivation is as follows. Let us say player A is the highest ranked player alive in the final round of Quals and player C is the one A is supposed to play in the final round of qualification. Suppose A can easily beat C and also suppose C is a good friend of A. Then A can voluntarily lose the final round, knowing fully well that he will enter into the main draw as he is the highest ranked guy. Motivation to lose is to help his friend C make the main draw. In order to prevent this kind of collusion attack on the integrity of the process, a randomization element is thrown in.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Young Tiafoe lost in the last round of quals. Hope he gets lucky at least.

 

[herios]

Young Tiafoe lost in the last round of quals. Hope he gets lucky at least.

I was happy to see Tiafoe kicked out, apologies for his fans.
His conqueror is Adrian Ungur from Romania, I am still cheering for the players from my former country

 

[herios]

LL is not necessarily the top ranked loser of R3. LL will be randomly drawn from one of the losers in R3 of Quals and in fact that is why they are called "Lucky" Losers.

Where did you get your information from? :huh:

Look what Wikipedia says:

In tennis, the rule for choosing a player to enter the main draw as a lucky loser is as follows: from all players eliminated in the final round of qualifying, the highest-ranked player in the ATP or WTA rankings is the first one to enter the draw, followed by the second highest-ranked player and so on (if more players withdrew before the start of the tournament). On rare occasions that there are more late withdrawals than losers in the last qualifying rounds or players eligible for lucky losers are not available, a player who lost in the penultimate round of qualifying may enter as lucky loser.

That applies if the vacancy is created after the quals are over. If the vacancy is created before the last round of the quals is over as is the case right now, what I said (randomly select one of the losers of the last round) is what applies. I will post a link to the actual rules later. I believe I have done this once before.

The motivation is as follows. Let us say player A is the highest ranked player alive in the final round of Quals and player C is the one A is supposed to play in the final round of qualification. Suppose A can easily beat C and also suppose C is a good friend of A. Then A can voluntarily lose the final round, knowing fully well that he will enter into the main draw as he is the highest ranked guy. Motivation to lose is to help his friend C make the main draw. In order to prevent this kind of collusion attack on the integrity of the process, a randomization element is thrown in.

Show me the link, otherwise I do not believe you.

 

[Front242]

Agreed with as more Rafa advances as better he plays but to say that meeting Nadal in the QF would have been an easier match for the opponent is laughable :lolz:

You just said you agree he plays better the more he advances so how is it laughable that opponents now meet him later than sooner? :s

Because if he plays well (he does now) it doesn't matter, his opponent won't have a "easy' win, he has beaten them before in the QF and he can do now too

I never said easy win I said it's easier to play him in the quarters than the semis as he won't be as confident. It's never going to be easy playing Nadal at RG but most would agree he's not at his best in the earlier rounds so yes, that means easier playing him sooner rather than later. Since that is no longer possible thanks to Roger, it made the draw much tougher for everyone.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This is all NBC Sports gives you for this RG. But, it is included in basic cable in most parts of USA. You can get more online at NBCSports.com/liveextra Hope we get full coverage at least on that online site. No schedule is made known for the online site.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

No, he will not.
Stakhovsky got eliminated in R2, the LL will be the top ranked who is eliminated in R3 of qualifications.

LL is not necessarily the top ranked loser of R3. LL will be randomly drawn from one of the losers in R3 of Quals and in fact that is why they are called "Lucky" Losers.

Where did you get your information from? :huh:

Look what Wikipedia says:

In tennis, the rule for choosing a player to enter the main draw as a lucky loser is as follows: from all players eliminated in the final round of qualifying, the highest-ranked player in the ATP or WTA rankings is the first one to enter the draw, followed by the second highest-ranked player and so on (if more players withdrew before the start of the tournament). On rare occasions that there are more late withdrawals than losers in the last qualifying rounds or players eligible for lucky losers are not available, a player who lost in the penultimate round of qualifying may enter as lucky loser.

Read the very same Wikipedia entry that you are quoting. completely. The rules are changed in 2006. If there is one vacancy (as is currently the case), they pick top four losers of the last round of qualifying and then randomly draw one of these four guys. Let me know if you still need a link.

It is not all the losers who are in the pool from which selection is made. At the same time, the highest ranked loser is not automatically chosen either. This is just to make sure that everybody has incentive to try to win the last qualifying round and cannot game the system.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is the rule book . The relevant info is in page 27.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Monfils just withdrew due to viral infection..too bad

 

[Front242]

Monfils just withdrew due to viral infection..too bad

Sucks for the French supporters.

 

[isabelle]

Monfils just withdrew due to viral infection..too bad

Sucks for the French supporters.

we still have Tsonga, Richie, Simon, Pouille and Chardy but don't know what to expect from them

 

[Front242]

Monfils just withdrew due to viral infection..too bad

Sucks for the French supporters.

we still have Tsonga, Richie, Simon, Pouille and Chardy but don't know what to expect from them

I miss Benneteau on tour. Since his last injury he hasn't been making draws of big events as his ranking is too low at present but for me he was always one of the most exciting French players to watch. He has a very nice aggressive game and it's a complete shock he's never won a title.