Early AO talk

[Kieran]

There's always been a lot of "The Whiff of If "from federer fans when it comes to the H2H with Rafa. "If Rafa reached more HC finals when he was just 11 years old, then bleh!"

"If we just disregard clay for a moment, because it's not a real surface, then bleh!"

"If we imagine for a minute that Roger beat Novak (twice) and Tommy Robredo at the US Open, then then faced Rafa, then bleh!"

It is what it is - ownership.

And it ain't so simple as saying it's because Rafa is a lefty who presents a match up problem for federer. :Nono

Personally speaking, I'd like them to meet in Oz for a few reasons: firstly, I read a great interview with federer last week where was praising Rafa to the hilt, and we all know Rafa feels the same about Roger, so it'd be great to get some of that old historical stardust on the courts again.

Also, it'll be a match they each raise their game for, so it'll play the winner into better form than either of them are in right now.

Also, as a Rafa fan, although hards are generally considered Roger's fiefdom, Rafa has owned him in Oz, so obviously I'd see it as near certain victory. But...if Rafa lost, it would be the clearest indication yet that he's too far off the pace now and he's a mark for anyone to take down, and I'd more or less write him off for any future slam success, rather than dare to get my hopes up again...

 

[the AntiPusher]

If the courts are playing slow , it will favor Djoker and Murray..if the conditions are hot and the ball is bouncing higher, Rafa's odds to play well is favorable..

 

[Kieran]

Courts were playing fast last year, I think. Realistically, watching the great Murray-Djoker match the other day, these two are head and shoulders above everybody else right now...

 

[Carol]

I just ask Rafa for good first serve, then I wouldn't be too worry even that he insists that he needs a couple of months more to be ready

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Its been almost three years that we haven't had a fedal grand slam match, I want to see one now, but I don't think we could have a very good one before Wimbledon.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

 

[the AntiPusher]

I just ask Rafa for good first serve, then I wouldn't be too worry even that he insists that he needs a couple of months more to be ready

Really Carol,good point plus what made Sampras so great and Roger is their 2nd serves.Becker and team improvement was also made on Novak's 2nd serve ..A first serve is always aided by a reliable and effective 2nd serve.

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, you're better than that. No one--or at least I can only speak for myself--is saying that Rafa hasn't "owned" Roger. What I was pointing out is that the h2h doesn't adequately portray it, due to the various factors mentioned above. There are subtleties and nuances that a superficial reading of the record will miss.

I would also re-emphasize that the "owning" is not about relative degrees of ability. It is about match-up difficulties, like paper-scissors-rock. Rafa is the "paper" to Roger's "rock," or the "rock" to Roger's "scissors," or the "scissors" to Roger's "paper."

 

[Kieran]

Kieran, you're better than that. No one--or at least I can only speak for myself--is saying that Rafa hasn't "owned" Roger. What I was pointing out is that the h2h doesn't adequately portray it, due to the various factors mentioned above. There are subtleties and nuances that a superficial reading of the record will miss.

I would also re-emphasize that the "owning" is not about relative degrees of ability. It is about match-up difficulties, like paper-scissors-rock. Rafa is the "paper" to Roger's "rock," or the "rock" to Roger's "scissors," or the "scissors" to Roger's "paper."

It's only "match up" if match up includes a helluva lot more than mere technical difficulties. The H2H portrays as much as any stat can, including slam numbers and so forth. They all require context and analysis. Close analysis of Fedal makes us Rafa fans feel very confident. Smug, even...

 

[Kieran]

I just ask Rafa for good first serve, then I wouldn't be too worry even that he insists that he needs a couple of months more to be ready

Really Carol,good point plus what made Sampras so great and Roger is their 2nd serves.Becker and team improvement was also made on Novak's 2nd serve ..A first serve is always aided by a reliable and effective 2nd serve.

A great serve is nothing if his head isn't ready. Tignor has a good article on tennis.com where he agrees with Carol, that rafas biggest issue now maybe mental. A big serve will help, but not cure...

 

[AnonymousFan]

So excited for AO. Only tournament worth waking up at 2 AM for both finals

 

[Fiero425]

So excited for AO. Only tournament worth waking up at 2 AM for both finals

I tend to just stay up! No wonder I'm still recovering from 2012 men's final going 5:53! It should have been done an hour earlier if Nole had just served it out in the 4th! :nono :angel: :cover

 

[Kieran]

So excited for AO. Only tournament worth waking up at 2 AM for both finals

I tend to just stay up! No wonder I'm still recovering from 2012 men's final going 5:53! It should have been done an hour earlier if Nole had just served it out in the 4th! :nono :angel: :cover

Did Novak serve for it in the fourth? That was a match that had everything.

There's something special about Oz, but I hope they quit their obnoxious scheduling that sees players take the court at basically 2am, to play best of five. Or something like that. From that perspective, they have a lot to learn...

 

[Fiero425]

So excited for AO. Only tournament worth waking up at 2 AM for both finals

I tend to just stay up! No wonder I'm still recovering from 2012 men's final going 5:53! It should have been done an hour earlier if Nole had just served it out in the 4th! :nono :angel: :cover

Did Novak serve for it in the fourth? That was a match that had everything.

There's something special about Oz, but I hope they quit their obnoxious scheduling that sees players take the court at basically 2am, to play best of five. Or something like that. From that perspective, they have a lot to learn...

It's happened quite a few times; even if Nole wins the match! He can be cruising along, just annihilating his opponent, can be serving for it with MP's and somehow it gets away from him! It's not like he's choking or even pulling back much on his effort; it can be Fedal snatching back a break and winning the set in a TB! OTTH it happened at '12 AO in the 4th, '11 USO in the 3rd, '14 Wimbledon (up 2 breaks) in the 4th, & 4th set at '15 USO! I actually predict it; "he's going to be serving for it in the 3rd of '11 USO and end up having to win in 4!" I swear it happens again and again! It's a wonder he came back at AO final against Nadal after blowing it earlier, well before that 4th set TB and down a break in the 5th! :nono :angel: :cover

 

[Kieran]

I tend to just stay up! No wonder I'm still recovering from 2012 men's final going 5:53! It should have been done an hour earlier if Nole had just served it out in the 4th! :nono :angel: :cover

Did Novak serve for it in the fourth? That was a match that had everything.

There's something special about Oz, but I hope they quit their obnoxious scheduling that sees players take the court at basically 2am, to play best of five. Or something like that. From that perspective, they have a lot to learn...

It's happened quite a few times; even if Nole wins the match! He can be cruising along, just annihilating his opponent, can be serving for it with MP's and somehow it gets away from him! It's not like he's choking or even pulling back much on his effort; it can be Fedal snatching back a break and winning the set in a TB! OTTH it happened at '12 AO in the 4th, '11 USO in the 3rd, '14 Wimbledon (up 2 breaks) in the 4th, & 4th set at '15 USO! I actually predict it; "he's going to be serving for it in the 3rd of '11 USO and end up having to win in 4!" I swear it happens again and again! It's a wonder he came back at AO final against Nadal after blowing it earlier, well before that 4th set TB and down a break in the 5th! :nono :angel: :cover

Oh please! Don't remind me! Rafa junking that backhand at 4-2, 30-15, when I think Novak was resigned to his fate. A "tight" shot, if ever I saw one. I still can't believe it. Puts me in mind of Borg double faulting twice at 3-all in the fifth against McEnroe. You know when! You know where! :cover

 

[Front242]

So if i get correct, some people suggest Djoker wont reach final.

It might happen, but i just dont see any good opponent up to final, also, it might happen Muzz lose No.1 spot. All possible.

4th round. Chance either Murray or Djokovic meet uncle Fed. Or is it Uncle Fester?

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, you're better than that. No one--or at least I can only speak for myself--is saying that Rafa hasn't "owned" Roger. What I was pointing out is that the h2h doesn't adequately portray it, due to the various factors mentioned above. There are subtleties and nuances that a superficial reading of the record will miss.

I would also re-emphasize that the "owning" is not about relative degrees of ability. It is about match-up difficulties, like paper-scissors-rock. Rafa is the "paper" to Roger's "rock," or the "rock" to Roger's "scissors," or the "scissors" to Roger's "paper."

It's only "match up" if match up includes a helluva lot more than mere technical difficulties. The H2H portrays as much as any stat can, including slam numbers and so forth. They all require context and analysis. Close analysis of Fedal makes us Rafa fans feel very confident. Smug, even...

Confident about what? That Rafa has a significant matchup edge over Roger? No one would disagree with that; but again, it is a rock-paper-scissors thing. Or are you confident that Rafa was a better player than Roger? You'll find a lot of folks that dispute that. It does seem that you "smug Rafa fans" like to conflate the two, which of course is ridiculous (otherwise Davydenko is better than Rafa, or Dustin Brown!).

And what does "close analysis" mean to you? Seeing what you want to see? But I'm still waiting for your close analysis that goes beyond the usual pissing contest stuff...

 

[Front242]

So excited for AO. Only tournament worth waking up at 2 AM for both finals

Every year I miss every match of this damn tournament except the finals. Sucks for people in Europe to be honest.

 

[Fiero425]

Did Novak serve for it in the fourth? That was a match that had everything.

There's something special about Oz, but I hope they quit their obnoxious scheduling that sees players take the court at basically 2am, to play best of five. Or something like that. From that perspective, they have a lot to learn...

It's happened quite a few times; even if Nole wins the match! He can be cruising along, just annihilating his opponent, can be serving for it with MP's and somehow it gets away from him! It's not like he's choking or even pulling back much on his effort; it can be Fedal snatching back a break and winning the set in a TB! OTTH it happened at '12 AO in the 4th, '11 USO in the 3rd, '14 Wimbledon (up 2 breaks) in the 4th, & 4th set at '15 USO! I actually predict it; "he's going to be serving for it in the 3rd of '11 USO and end up having to win in 4!" I swear it happens again and again! It's a wonder he came back at AO final against Nadal after blowing it earlier, well before that 4th set TB and down a break in the 5th! :nono :angel: :cover

Oh please! Don't remind me! Rafa junking that backhand at 4-2, 30-15, when I think Novak was resigned to his fate. A "tight" shot, if ever I saw one. I still can't believe it. Puts me in mind of Borg double faulting twice at 3-all in the fifth against McEnroe. You know when! You know where! :cover

Nole tried to give the match to Rafa, but he wouldn't take it; just teasing us here and there with some spectacular "gets," only to miss a "sitter" like that with space a truck could maneuver! Both of them had nerves at the end of that WAR! It was the 7th straight win for NOLE and Rafa's confidence shaken, but obviously not for long! He took back the #1 ranking in 2013; his last real 2nd act with '14 FO! That's been it except for the occasional Masters' win on clay! Does he have 1 more good run in him "anywhere" on the map? For once, I don't think the tour will "lay down" for him and Roger! Looking forward to something reminiscent of Black Monday at '90 FO losing top 2 seeds; Edberg and Becker in the 1st round! Nole's been rather lucky over the years, but Nadal's already cracked; even with a 2-0 lead he had against FOG at USO last year! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Kieran]

Kieran, you're better than that. No one--or at least I can only speak for myself--is saying that Rafa hasn't "owned" Roger. What I was pointing out is that the h2h doesn't adequately portray it, due to the various factors mentioned above. There are subtleties and nuances that a superficial reading of the record will miss.

I would also re-emphasize that the "owning" is not about relative degrees of ability. It is about match-up difficulties, like paper-scissors-rock. Rafa is the "paper" to Roger's "rock," or the "rock" to Roger's "scissors," or the "scissors" to Roger's "paper."

It's only "match up" if match up includes a helluva lot more than mere technical difficulties. The H2H portrays as much as any stat can, including slam numbers and so forth. They all require context and analysis. Close analysis of Fedal makes us Rafa fans feel very confident. Smug, even...

Confident about what? That Rafa has a significant matchup edge over Roger? No one would disagree with that; but again, it is a rock-paper-scissors thing. Or are you confident that Rafa was a better player than Roger? You'll find a lot of folks that dispute that. It does seem that you "smug Rafa fans" like to conflate the two, which of course is ridiculous (otherwise Davydenko is better than Rafa, or Dustin Brown!).

And what does "close analysis" mean to you? Seeing what you want to see? But I'm still waiting for your close analysis that goes beyond the usual pissing contest stuff...

All statistics only tell part the tale, brother, and since I previously accused you of only seeing what you want to see in your analysis, I can only say touché to your choice of words. Rafa a better player than Roger? On the big stage, and in matches between them, I'd certainly say so...

But as you say, it's an old pissing contest. Myself and fiero have just been reminiscing on an even older one: Borg and Mac. You have the lefty in your avatar: his match with Borg in 1980, and Rafas with Novak in 2012, are the only two really alt-history temptations I ever indulge in regularly. In my dreams... :cover

 

[Kieran]

It's happened quite a few times; even if Nole wins the match! He can be cruising along, just annihilating his opponent, can be serving for it with MP's and somehow it gets away from him! It's not like he's choking or even pulling back much on his effort; it can be Fedal snatching back a break and winning the set in a TB! OTTH it happened at '12 AO in the 4th, '11 USO in the 3rd, '14 Wimbledon (up 2 breaks) in the 4th, & 4th set at '15 USO! I actually predict it; "he's going to be serving for it in the 3rd of '11 USO and end up having to win in 4!" I swear it happens again and again! It's a wonder he came back at AO final against Nadal after blowing it earlier, well before that 4th set TB and down a break in the 5th! :nono :angel: :cover

Oh please! Don't remind me! Rafa junking that backhand at 4-2, 30-15, when I think Novak was resigned to his fate. A "tight" shot, if ever I saw one. I still can't believe it. Puts me in mind of Borg double faulting twice at 3-all in the fifth against McEnroe. You know when! You know where! :cover

Nole tried to give the match to Rafa, but he wouldn't take it; just teasing us here and there with some spectacular "gets," only to miss a "sitter" like that with space a truck could maneuver! Both of them had nerves at the end of that WAR! It was the 7th straight win for NOLE and Rafa's confidence shaken, but obviously not for long! He took back the #1 ranking in 2013; his last real 2nd act with '14 FO! That's been it except for the occasional Masters' win on clay! Does he have 1 more good run in him "anywhere" on the map? For once, I don't think the tour will "lay down" for him and Roger! Looking forward to something reminiscent of Black Monday at '90 FO losing top 2 seeds; Edberg and Becker in the 1st round! Nole's been rather lucky over the years, but Nadal's already cracked; even with a 2-0 lead he had against FOG at USO last year! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

We'll see, brother, we'll see. If there's anyone can make hay once his fire's lit, it's young Ralph...