Did Djokovic really play that poorly?

[brokenshoelace]

A year from now, maybe a little more, Djokovic will win back-to-back majors and this will seem like a distant memory. We LOVE big picture narratives and act like the world is coming to an end. Yeah, this loss will hurt. But how much? How long will it take him to get over it? You think it's going to affect the rest of his career and impact his performances at future slams 18 months from now? Really? Other players have endured worse losses and rebounded just fine. Djokovic has proven he can overcome tough losses, and he's proven he's good enough to win more. This is not some Andy Roddick Wimbledon 2009 scenario. You guys are going overboard.

What you're missing is that it isn't just one bad loss. He hasn't overcome a big loss in over a year now. They have been mounting for a while and it culminated in an awful way for him this past Sunday. Would you bet on him to win Wimbledon or USO at this point? No prayer at the first and with low confidence I wouldn't bet on him to do anything at USO either.

Wimbledon this year? No. US Open? A bit too soon to tell. But keep in mind, I said "a year from now." I'm not disputing that this loss will have an immediate effect on him. I just don't think it will matter a great deal as to his future results say, at this time next year.

 

[Federberg]

A year from now, maybe a little more, Djokovic will win back-to-back majors and this will seem like a distant memory. We LOVE big picture narratives and act like the world is coming to an end. Yeah, this loss will hurt. But how much? How long will it take him to get over it? You think it's going to affect the rest of his career and impact his performances at future slams 18 months from now? Really? Other players have endured worse losses and rebounded just fine. Djokovic has proven he can overcome tough losses, and he's proven he's good enough to win more. This is not some Andy Roddick Wimbledon 2009 scenario. You guys are going overboard.

Which top player has come back from multiple failures at the key moments in the majors? I'm not so much challenging you as wanting to know who I'm overlooking

Federer, Nadal and Murray.

I would take Murray out of that list. If Murray is at his peak then it's waist high compared to Novak's. And I think we can all agree that Fedal are monsters the like of which we may never see again, so a very harsh comparison for Novak. For me it's the nature of his defeats that are worrying me with Novak. Wimbledon, Flushing and the recent one in particular spring to mind. There seem to have been real character issues involved. I say character because he unquestionably underperformed his form going into the match for reasons that look mental. I'm just finding it tough to give him a pass for these inexplicable performances. Maybe I'm being harsh... uzzled

 

[DarthFed]

^ Maybe, maybe not. I think his results in the slams last year is one of the reasons for what we've seen so far this year. And if he doesn't win anything this year that's 2 bad years to draw on...

 

[Kieran]

The ridiculous thing about it here is, Novak is getting stick...for losing to Rafa in Paris! Like, join the queue. It's hardly something to be ashamed of. People are acting like he had the match on his racket and blew it...

 

[DarthFed]

Agreed. Too many over the top knee jerk reactions.

Djokovic doesn't need to wait until the US Open to prove he is a "force" in tennis. He is a force right now and has been for the last 6 years.

I agree. Every time someone loses a few big matches in a row, the same old "will he ever win again, and how often?" thing emerges. We saw it with Federer after AO 2009, Nadal after 2011/AO 2012, Murray after every final loss, and Djokovic now. My belief is, if you're good enough, and you keep putting yourself in positions to win, you will, especially since you've done it before, and done it often.

It's worth considering for a minute what the commentary would have been IF Djokovic had won that match. Completely different. I'm not talking about the specific match itself but the discussions on the "bigger picture".

Everyone would have been querying whether Nadal could ever beat Djokovic again having lost 5 on the spin, where Djokovic was in the GOAT rankings with 7 slams, how Djoker was going to be number one for the rest of the year, whether he could win Wimbledon.... Instead some are coming up with the commentary that his numbers are abominable, he's not a force in the sport etc.

Knee-jerk city.

If Kate Middleton had balls and no hair she'd be Prince Willy. The fact of the matter is he didn't get it done and now people will wonder if him beating the crap out of Rafa at MS events means anything when Rafa is easily winning the ones that matter. I think you might be underestimating the implications and importance that a match can have. And regardless, Nole's slam issues has extended past Nadal the past couple years.

Well, we definitely view things from a different perspective.

For me, winning a major in a year = a great year. Regardless.

For you, winning a major will salvage a season.

It probably stems from expectations and valuations of players. I never used to expect players to be almost routinely winning 3 majors a year... so what Federer, Nadal and Djokovic did seems almost phenomenal to me in the greater historical scheme of things.

Maybe fans who have been bought up with the more modern era and with less of an eye on previous eras have much higher expectations and demands. You mentioned a comment the other day, that Roger hadn't done enough and should have won more. To me, winning 17 majors is fricken insane.

I don't mean any offence by this, but growing up watching guys like Borg, McEnroe, Edberg, Becker, Lendl etc.. who I regard as some of the greatest players to ever play the sport, I kind of feel a lot of fans have been spoilt by the current era and have unrealistic expectations.

I followed Edberg from his beginning in the pros. He won 6 majors between from 85-93 and nothing after the age of 26. He'd be routinely slaughtered by fans on forums every other tournament if he was playing today - yet for me he is maybe a Top 15/20 of all time in the history of the whole sport.

Modern era players get slaughtered too quickly. The fringe contendors get hammered for being gutless. The better players get thrown under a bus whenever they lose a match and the greatest players of them all get hammered for not even winning more silverware - even the guy who has won more top table trophies than anyone else in history.

These guys aren't robots mate and 4 players can't all win the same trophy.

For me, Djokovic is one of the best players I've seen EVER and I'm pretty certain he will win a fair bit more before he'd done.

Good post Baron. I think it is about context. When Nole and Rafa are surveying the field they see a greatly diminished Roger and a great but much lesser Murray and then what? We know great players are greedy so I really doubt guys like Nole, Rafa, and Roger (back in his prime) are too satisfied with winning 1 of the big 4 events during a year. It just salvages the year if you are one of the top 2 who are clearly above the rest. Great results like those 3 have had does naturally lead to higher expectations. Some handle it better than others. It's possible the expectations Nole places on himself is weighing him down, especially when it comes to crunch time.

 

[Federberg]

^ Maybe, maybe not. I think his results in the slams last year is one of the reasons for what we've seen so far this year. And if he doesn't win anything this year that's 2 bad years to draw on...

Yes agreed. But I can also see some people giving him a pass if he is in 2 semis and 2 finals before RG next year. He's getting to the latter stage of slams because he is THAT good. His best right now is THE best on the tour in my view. But there's something going on upstairs. It's very very odd. Maybe it's impending fatherhood. Maybe he's only starting being faithful to his girlfriend in the last 12 months (just speculating here... and remembering how a 'cured' Tiger has lost his mojo ). But something has happened to him. In my view he's lost these matches because he has underperformed, and short of Fed in AO 09 or US 09 I see no equivalence. I don't recall a slam where Rafa has lost because he seriously underperformed like this...

 

[Kieran]

In that case, Darth, Nole is unlucky in his choice of rivals. He may have surveyed and seen lessser players than Rafa to have as a rival, and the Murray of 2012 and most of 2013 was an elite player...

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

What you're missing is that it isn't just one bad loss. He hasn't overcome a big loss in over a year now. They have been mounting for a while and it culminated in an awful way for him this past Sunday. Would you bet on him to win Wimbledon or USO at this point? No prayer at the first and with low confidence I wouldn't bet on him to do anything at USO either.

Pre-tournament it would still be reasonable to have him as the best bet in my opinion. His consistency is still there in a way that basically anywhere non elite-players need an out of their mind-performance or a really bad one from Novak to get past him. So he's more or less safe to get to at least the semi final in most tournaments in a way that nobody else really is at this moment. But if he's for example meeting another Big 4-member in the semi final or final of Wimbledon it's hard to see him as the favorite right now.

In general I find it hard to predict what will happen in the near future with him. It wouldn't surprise me the least if he wins another slam this year, gets a lot of belief back after such a breakthrough and goes on to win multiple majors next season. But it also seems possible that he continues to struggle to overcome his mental deficits short or mid term and loses some of his overall consistency due to the upcoming changing family situation.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

Bear in mind that you're considering a four set loss to Rafa in a French Open final "a bad loss."

That's slightly preposterous, and even more so when you also claim Roger losing in 5 to Rafa at Wimbledon was a disaster. Do you think that if Nole had beaten Rafa 9-7 in the fifth on Sunday that it would be a disaster for Rafa?

Or did you expect that Nole would win on Sunday, and not only, should win?

The fact is, he tried his best and broke back in the fourth. It's not like he stopped trying. The man was visibly ailing, and it was a huge match for him. Give him a break: even Roger never won more than a single set off Rafa in Paris...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

You've said the same about Djokovic recently, and since you don't think Fed will be making major finals again (which isn't unjustified, to be fair), is Nadal the only player to fear, according to you?

 

[Backhand_DTL]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

Bear in mind that you're considering a four set loss to Rafa in a French Open final "a bad loss."

That's slightly preposterous, and even more so when you also claim Roger losing in 5 to Rafa at Wimbledon was a disaster. Do you think that if Nole had beaten Rafa 9-7 in the fifth on Sunday that it would be a disaster for Rafa?

Or did you expect that Nole would win on Sunday, and not only, should win?

The fact is, he tried his best and broke back in the fourth. It's not like he stopped trying. The man was visibly ailing, and it was a huge match for him. Give him a break: even Roger never won more than a single set off Rafa in Paris...

I see the problem less in the loss itself, but more in that there was the impression that Rafa, while playing very solid, was at a level where a close to his best-Novak could have beaten him and Nole probably felt that himself. It's hard to tell whether mainly the mental or the physical side prevented him from playing well enough, but failing that way to realize his probably most important career goal will leave him and many of his fans with a lot of regrets.

 

[Federberg]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

Bear in mind that you're considering a four set loss to Rafa in a French Open final "a bad loss."

That's slightly preposterous, and even more so when you also claim Roger losing in 5 to Rafa at Wimbledon was a disaster. Do you think that if Nole had beaten Rafa 9-7 in the fifth on Sunday that it would be a disaster for Rafa?

Or did you expect that Nole would win on Sunday, and not only, should win?

The fact is, he tried his best and broke back in the fourth. It's not like he stopped trying. The man was visibly ailing, and it was a huge match for him. Give him a break: even Roger never won more than a single set off Rafa in Paris...

I see the problem less in the loss itself, but more in that there was the impression that Rafa, while playing very solid, was at a level where a close to his best-Novak could have beaten him and Nole probably felt that himself. It's hard to tell whether mainly the mental or the physical side prevented him from playing well enough, but failing that way to realize his probably most important career goal will leave him and many of his fans with a lot of regrets.

Co-signed!

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

You've said the same about Djokovic recently, and since you don't think Fed will be making major finals again (which isn't unjustified, to be fair), is Nadal the only player to fear, according to you?

Yes he is the only one at this point you are desperately hoping not to face. I'm not saying that Murray and Nole are pushovers but the rest of the tour shouldn't be cursing their luck if they are facing one of them in a major final right now. Of course the top guys and others would be glad to see someone like Ferrer in the final but of realistic people to see in the final I think Rafa is the only one to fear right now. I'd be happy if Roger sees Nole in the semis/finals of Wimbledon or USO right now as compared to a few other options.

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

Bear in mind that you're considering a four set loss to Rafa in a French Open final "a bad loss."

That's slightly preposterous, and even more so when you also claim Roger losing in 5 to Rafa at Wimbledon was a disaster. Do you think that if Nole had beaten Rafa 9-7 in the fifth on Sunday that it would be a disaster for Rafa?

Or did you expect that Nole would win on Sunday, and not only, should win?

The fact is, he tried his best and broke back in the fourth. It's not like he stopped trying. The man was visibly ailing, and it was a huge match for him. Give him a break: even Roger never won more than a single set off Rafa in Paris...

Nole had just beaten Rafa at Rome and generally looked like the better player throughout the entire tournament until the semifinals. And it was the way he went down. He didn't stop trying but that doesn't mean he played decent or even competed well. Just look at the last game of the match...

I felt that Novak should win that match. IMO when he is on top of his game he is bullying Rafa around at will and eventually is going to win regardless of surface. Rafa losing at RG 9-7 would be a disaster because Rafa losing period at RG is a disaster for him. Roger at 2008 Wimbledon was no different. He had won 65 straight on grass so there was never going to be some kind of quality loss there. Definitely not to Nadal. Sampras in the DeLorean is the only exception there.

 

[Kieran]

You have a strange fixation on these things: Nole should win, but a loss would be a disaster for Rafa.

How can we square these two positions, given that you also seem to view the loss as a disaster of sorts for Nole...

 

[Kieran]

Rafa was his rival in 2011 and AO 2012 too. And I don't think anyone is complaining if they see Murray on the other side of the net in a major final.

Bear in mind that you're considering a four set loss to Rafa in a French Open final "a bad loss."

That's slightly preposterous, and even more so when you also claim Roger losing in 5 to Rafa at Wimbledon was a disaster. Do you think that if Nole had beaten Rafa 9-7 in the fifth on Sunday that it would be a disaster for Rafa?

Or did you expect that Nole would win on Sunday, and not only, should win?

The fact is, he tried his best and broke back in the fourth. It's not like he stopped trying. The man was visibly ailing, and it was a huge match for him. Give him a break: even Roger never won more than a single set off Rafa in Paris...

I see the problem less in the loss itself, but more in that there was the impression that Rafa, while playing very solid, was at a level where a close to his best-Novak could have beaten him and Nole probably felt that himself. It's hard to tell whether mainly the mental or the physical side prevented him from playing well enough, but failing that way to realize his probably most important career goal will leave him and many of his fans with a lot of regrets.

But isn't it difficult for a player to play "close to his best" when he's visibly ailing?

And am I missing something: is beating Rafa in Paris not still the Everest of sports? Therefore, Nole getting a set from him should be considered to be what we expect, no? Had he dropped a calf in straights, maybe there should be an inquest, but again I'm asking this: are people holding Nole to a higher standard than they hold Nadal? Nadal is near-invincible in Paris...

 

[DarthFed]

You have a strange fixation on these things: Nole should win, but a loss would be a disaster for Rafa.

How can we square these two positions, given that you also seem to view the loss as a disaster of sorts for Nole...

Both of them had a lot invested in the match and it is logical to think that both had plenty of reason to believe they would win coming in. It'd be a big loss for whoever took it...

 

[Kieran]

You have a strange fixation on these things: Nole should win, but a loss would be a disaster for Rafa.

How can we square these two positions, given that you also seem to view the loss as a disaster of sorts for Nole...

Both of them had a lot invested in the match and it is logical to think that both had plenty of reason to believe they would win coming in. It'd be a big loss for whoever took it...

And yet, it's a match that's always going to be Rafa's to lose, given how brutally dominant he is over five on clay, so how is it a bad loss for Novak?

 

[DarthFed]

^ Debatable. If Nole had showed up and played decent it might have been a competitive match. Just out of curiosity would you say Wimbledon 2008 was Roger's to lose given he had won 65 straight on grass and was playing someone he had beaten the past 2 years and someone who had won nothing off clay?