Clay Swing Predictions

[Front242]

Negative, bro. Hot weather, the ball fizzes through the air. Colder climes, less so...

EDIT: when it's hot on clay courts especially, the ground is harder, almost like a hard court, and you can hit through players more. The Novak match is a case in point, and you made the argument well yourself: Rafa's shots weren't making enough impact to go through Novak, this is why Novak, on bright sunny days in Paris begged the ump to drench the courts and slow Rafa down. Sampras used to pray for hot sunny days in Paris, so he could impose his quick aggressive style on clay-court rats who'd lop balls back to him all day long. No surprise that his best year, 1996, the courts played like dusty hard courts...

Valid points about the ability to hit through the court on hot days but the difference here is we're discussing Nadal. Most players hit way flatter than Nadal so hot, dry, damp, cold, it doesn't make a whole degree of difference but, with Nadal, his clay dominance has largely been due to his topspin. For that reason, it's no wonder Klizan and Brands had good success against him on the cold, damp days till the weather brightened up midway through and then Nadal's spin was back to being much harder to control and they couldn't sustain the bludgeoning. If I were a player who hit big, I'd definitely prefer to play him on a day when his best asset is neutralized and that means playing him in crap weather so he can't hit massive, high loopy topspin forehands. Without those his bounce is right in the hit zone for anyone with a decent aggressive game and he's there for the taking if the weather stays bad and they can sustain their attack.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

"There for the taking"?! I agree that hot weather, on balance, suits him even more on clay but he's hardly a slouch on clay in any weather ...

This is from 2 years ago:
"In ATP history, since 1973, Nadal leads the FedEx ATP Win-Loss for career clay-court matches with a 328-26 mark and 46 titles (.927 per cent). Borg is second overall with a 251-41 record and 30 titles (.860)"

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/fedex-performance-zone-career-clay-records

Now it is 365-34 (.915). Still miles above anyone else.

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[Front242]

Yup, there for the taking for anyone with a decent aggressive game. It takes all the above variables though: namely, the opponent has to have an aggressive game and not be a pusher AND they have to be lucky and have cold, damp conditions so Nadal's topspin is all but useless and sits in the air waiting to be belted back with interest. Unless of course you think Brands and Klizan are actually great players, especially on clay...but I think most know they're not.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

"There for the taking"?! I agree that hot weather, on balance, suits him even more on clay but he's hardly a slouch on clay in any weather ...

This is from 2 years ago:
"In ATP history, since 1973, Nadal leads the FedEx ATP Win-Loss for career clay-court matches with a 328-26 mark and 46 titles (.927 per cent). Borg is second overall with a 251-41 record and 30 titles (.860)"

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/fedex-performance-zone-career-clay-records

Now it is 365-34 (.915). Still miles above anyone else.

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One of the reason for such wonderful record is that often people lost to him on clay before even the match begins (due to his aura). Take someone like Almagro. He is a decent clay court player and has won few titles on clay and has reached QF few times at RG. But, he typically manages to win only about 5 to 9 games in a match against Rafa at RG.

However, that aura of Rafa is a thing of past. So, most people know that Rafa of today (not the historical Rafa) is there for taking, if they play aggressively and with belief. So, not withstanding these mind-boggling numbers, in some sense he is there for taking. With Brands, Klizan and Pablo etc, once they are in lead suddenly it goes into their head as to what they are about to do. That is when things go awry for those folks. It needs a strong mind to take out Rafa more than a strong game.

 

[Kieran]

That's true, but it has nothing to do with the weather. Rafa has also steamrollered the same kind of players - and better than them - when it's cold. But it's true - the aura won a lot of matches, even against all-time greats. Same for Sampras, Federer, Djoker. It's a hard-earned aura, but once it's gone, it's even harder to get it back...

 

[Front242]

That's true, but it has nothing to do with the weather. Rafa has also steamrollered the same kind of players - and better than them - when it's cold. But it's true - the aura won a lot of matches, even against all-time greats. Same for Sampras, Federer, Djoker. It's a hard-earned aura, but once it's gone, it's even harder to get it back...

Man, you stubborn Nadal fans denying even the role the weather plays lol :cover Think Roger would prefer to play Wimbledon in the p1$$1ng rain? Didn't think so. Well, neither does Rafa on clay and it's no secret he always says he hopes for hot, sunny weather and I've already documented why. His topspin is completely ineffective when the air is cold and damp and likewise when the court is cold and damp. Of course he's still beaten players handily regardless of the weather being crap, but he's also struggled mightily as was pointed out, against Klizan and Brands who ARE NOT great players, and all because his topspin was not hurting his opponents in the cold, damp weather and his shots were landing right in their hit zones, ready to be smacked back with interest. Brands was a botched volley away from 5-3 in the 2nd set TB and would have had 2 sets to 0 lead and mostly down to two things: (A) most importantly the weather and (B) he's an aggressive player with a decent serve.

Also, Rome 2014, Murray ran away with the first set 6-1 and the weather was cold and damp. It makes a massive difference.

 

[Front242]

Just to add before you point out that Murray lost, he was super aggressive in set 1 and reverted back to his usual passive play after that. Passive play will not beat Nadal but he showed clearly he's beatable in damp and cold weather when you stick to an aggressive game plan. Murray can be great at aggressive play but it doesn't come naturally to him at all.