Clay Swing Predictions

[El Dude]

This here? That shows an observably natural progression as a player moves from high achieving great with a gazillion miles on the clock to being a winding down old vet who loses against the much younger men, his body is prone to weaknesses, his stamina and endurance begin to fail, but he's still reasonably competitive.

...

See this here? This is the fairy tale, where suddenly the "0-7 vs. Other Three" reverses with a loud bang, and the player is no longer affected by long lay offs, long matches, long days slogging in the field. And it's so noticeable now that it's getting mentioned in articles, with the obvious contrary views among fans.

You're missing, perhaps deliberately, a few things. For one, 2013 was not a natural follow-up from 2012. 2012 was his best year since 2009, then he completely fell apart in 2013. It became clear that he was struggling with injury and, combined with a new racquet and approach, he turned things around and returned to a similar level in 2014-15 as he had before 2013. So again, the key is that 2013 was NOT natural age decline; it was largely because of injury, and his resurgence in 2014 was due to returned health and an adjusted strategy and racquet.

2014-15 could be seen simply as an all-time great who is dedicated to remaining competitive. It isn't unheard of historically for a great player to remain in the elite into his 30s; Agassi did it, so did Connors, and of course the Laver and Rosewall. Unusual, yes, but Roger is an unusually great player.

Anyway, it's what it is. We're getting an epilogue of epic proportions outta Fedal, which is a surprise to all of us. Roger's taking a break to do whatever and I wonder if Rafa isn't due some sort of rest too. Wouldn't it be typical of the lad if he overplays his hand and winds up in the infirmary again, come the first week in June? :s

Yes, I think that is a distinct possibility. From 2012-16, 2015 was the only year that Rafa didn't miss substantial time. If he goes all-in during clay, depending upon outcome he may decide to step out during grass season and/or play minimally during the second half of the year. We shall see.

 

[Kieran]

It's an interesting comparison with Agassi, brother. except they're only superficially comparable. Dre took a long mid-career meth-fueled hiatus, and had nowhere near the miles on the clock or the achievements of Federer, and came nowhere near to reaching these heights aged almost 36. Rosewall is sepia toned, and Connors also skipped a lot of majors during during his prime. Federer has been a year-in, year-out, every single surface and tournament high achiever, setting records for wins, finals, semis, QF's reached, successive slams played. He has so many miles on his clock, he musta had his clock replaced with a new one.

2013 was natural because injuries are a hazard for ageing players, especially back injuries in the more aggressive servers.

Anyway, it's something I've been saying for 3 years now, it's not something I'm saying because he's beating Rafa. But it's become more obvious and noticeable now, and I have a theory on that too, but I agree with the forum policies and I don't want to abuse them. It's prolly not something Federer fans have contemplated, though maybe it is. I'm not above saying also that I could be wrong. I hope for the sake of the sport that I am...

 

[El Dude]

Ah, I see - you're doing a Front, but directing it at Roger instead of Rafa. I'll remind you of this next time you complain about Front's implications. But I personally have no problem contemplating or even discussing such things (aside from forum policies), but the problem is that there's really no point to it without any evidence, and there simply is none. At all. Let's talk if and when there is.

As far as the Agassi comp goes, that's my point: there are no historical comps to Roger Federer, except for maybe Rod Laver, who you didn't mention. Sepia-toned too, I guess, but tennis moves in cycles. As it turns out, the youthful 80s and 90s are looking like more of a historical anomaly than the current era, which seem to be returning to the norms of the 70s and before.

But again, the point is that there's never been a player like Roger, so any comp is dubious at best. But I mentioned Agassi and Connors to point out that there are, indeed, Open Era greats who remained very good into their mid-30s. But worth mentioning, no? The fact that Roger isn't the first player to ever play at a high level at 35 years of age.

Further, you're also ignoring the fact that tons of players are extending their prime years. Not everyone, and perhaps no one (yet) quite like Roger, but it is happening in a way that wasn't happening in the 90s. Tennis moves in cycles, but also new developments occur. It could be that players are finding ways--and legit ways, including Novak's oxygen bubble, or whatever it is--to improve and extend performance.

 

[Kieran]

Ah, I see - you're doing a Front, but directing it at Roger instead of Rafa.

Sheesh bro, you know how to hit a low blow. :laydownlaughing :lolz:

But I personally have no problem contemplating or even discussing such things (aside from forum policies), but the problem is that there's really no point to it without any evidence, and there simply is none. At all. Let's talk if and when there is.

I believe that this is a very good point and time to move the thread back on topic again. :hug

 

[DarthFed]

If you think Roger's juicing and Rafa has always been clean that's pretty crazy my friend. Roger has adapted his game as he's gotten older to play a style that will be the least taxing on his body. I think he is moving clearly worse than he did even a few years ago, he's just being a lot more aggressive on return and with his backhand and it's paying great dividends.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think they have invented a magic potion that improves your backhand. So, even if one does not believe in the integrity of Fed, one can at least look at as to how much the current level of knowledge in science can help devise schemes to gain advantage.

 

[El Dude]

Exactly, GSM. Roger has actually improved his game mechanically. Actually, I see a few ways in which he is a better player than he was two years ago:

1. Improved backhand.
2. Better return of serve.
3. More consistent serve.
4. Better endurance.
5. Greater confidence.

The first three are purely mechanical and thus wouldn't be impacted by any "alternative methods." The fourth certainly could, but could just be through improved fitness, less aches and pains, etc. The fifth is psychological would could be impacted, but doesn't need to be.

 

[DarthFed]

Exactly, GSM. Roger has actually improved his game mechanically. Actually, I see a few ways in which he is a better player than he was two years ago:

1. Improved backhand.
2. Better return of serve.
3. More consistent serve.
4. Better endurance.
5. Greater confidence.

The first three are purely mechanical and thus wouldn't be impacted by any "alternative methods." The fourth certainly could, but could just be through improved fitness, less aches and pains, etc. The fifth is psychological would could be impacted, but doesn't need to be.

And points 1 and 2 a big part of the improvement is an aggressive mentality, it's not like Roger wasn't capable of doing this when he was 25 or 30, he just was always content to block the ball back on return and he was not looking to take control/end points quickly with his backhand. I think the new racquet has helped make him more confident in being aggressive off the backhand and ROS.

I completely disagree with him having a more consistent serve at least this year. Roger's serve has quietly been mediocre at best for his standards, he's just been getting away with it because the rest of his game is lights out at the moment.

Better stamina is arguable. Roger caught a couple nice breaks at AO this year following 5 set matches. The first one was that he faced a pretty underwhelming S&V player in Zverev in the QF after a tough 5 set match with Nishikori. I think he was actually pretty flat that match but it didn't matter, all the points were five shots or less and Zverev couldn't really challenge him. The 2nd break was that he got an extra day off after the 5 setter vs. Stan. I think the biggest showcase of great stamina this year was following up the tough win over Berd with a long epic brawl vs. Kyrgios. And even in that one we have to say that many of those points were extremely short as Kyrgios won tons of free points on serve.

Greater confidence...absolutely. There can be no doubt about that one.

 

[El Dude]

Let's check his ace%. I know it isn't the only indicator of how good he's serving, but I think it at least gets us a little closer to answering the question of whether he's been serving more consistently or not.

2017: 12.1%
2016: 10.9%
2015: 11.5%

The site I looked on, tennisabstract.com, doesn't have this stat for years before 2015, but it looks close enough for the difference to be negligible.

What about 1st serve %?

2017: 61%
2016: 62%
2015: 64%
2014: 64%
2013: 63%
2012: 63%
2011: 64%
2010: 62%
2009: 62%
2008: 64%
2007: 62%
2006: 63%
2005: 63%
2004: 62%
2003: 60%
2002: 60%
2001: 60%
2000: 59%
1999: 58%
1998: 56%

Wow,that's amazing consistency - especially from 2004 on. But it looks like he dipped slightly this year, which is surprising. Overall, though, I think we should split the difference - he seems to be serving as his usual self.

 

[Kieran]

I don't think they have invented a magic potion that improves your backhand. So, even if one does not believe in the integrity of Fed, one can at least look at as to how much the current level of knowledge in science can help devise schemes to gain advantage.

Well let's leave aside brother Fronts old suggestions that Rafa used a magic potion to help him serve like an ATP player in 2010, as opposed to a woman, I agree, a magic potion doesn't help with technique. It could only help with the physicalities required by an old man to play like a young man.

His backhand was always good though. What seems to have changed is his conviction behind it, especially when hitting it so early. He never really believed it could hold up for long periods, but now the difference seems to be that he's relishing having a pop. He was always able to, so in that sense, I'm not sure he's changed much mechanically. He's certainly sharpened his reflexes and able to play aggressively for much longer, recover much faster, etc...

 

[DarthFed]

Let's check his ace%. I know it isn't the only indicator of how good he's serving, but I think it at least gets us a little closer to answering the question of whether he's been serving more consistently or not.

2017: 12.1%
2016: 10.9%
2015: 11.5%

The site I looked on, tennisabstract.com, doesn't have this stat for years before 2015, but it looks close enough for the difference to be negligible.

What about 1st serve %?

2017: 61%
2016: 62%
2015: 64%
2014: 64%
2013: 63%
2012: 63%
2011: 64%
2010: 62%
2009: 62%
2008: 64%
2007: 62%
2006: 63%
2005: 63%
2004: 62%
2003: 60%
2002: 60%
2001: 60%
2000: 59%
1999: 58%
1998: 56%

Wow,that's amazing consistency - especially from 2004 on. But it looks like he dipped slightly this year, which is surprising. Overall, though, I think we should split the difference - he seems to be serving as his usual self.

Thanks for finding that breakdown. I do read more into 1st serve % at this point especially since the ace % is with a much smaller sample size over the years. And with Roger we know the power and placement on his serve has been the same for many years, I don't think he's serving any harder this year or even trying to be more precise which would be very difficult to do. I will say that his 2nd serve has gotten better over the years. It's one of the categories that I think is better now as compared to his prime years.

But I am surprised he's even at 61% first serve on the year, I would've figured high 50's. It just seems he's had a lot of matches this year already where he's been in the low to mid 50's and the match vs. RBA he served 47% which is why that one was more interesting than expected. Even this past Sunday Roger's serve was really bad for most of the 1st set, low 50's, and then very good after and I think he finished at 60%.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't think they have invented a magic potion that improves your backhand. So, even if one does not believe in the integrity of Fed, one can at least look at as to how much the current level of knowledge in science can help devise schemes to gain advantage.

Well let's leave aside brother Fronts old suggestions that Rafa used a magic potion to help him serve like an ATP player in 2010, as opposed to a woman, I agree, a magic potion doesn't help with technique. It could only help with the physicalities required by an old man to play like a young man.

His backhand was always good though. What seems to have changed is his conviction behind it, especially when hitting it so early. He never really believed it could hold up for long periods, but now the difference seems to be that he's relishing having a pop. He was always able to, so in that sense, I'm not sure he's changed much mechanically. He's certainly sharpened his reflexes and able to play aggressively for much longer, recover much faster, etc...

He's always tried to play aggressively. I think what you're getting at is he hasn't had as many drops in play during the matches. He's often been sharp from start to finish this year whereas in recent years he would be less consistent set-to-set. However, I think that's a mental thing and not a stamina issue. Players as they age often have difficulties focusing the whole match and remaining consistent but most of those guys seem to say that's mental. And that's where the time off could've helped and obviously winning the AO was an enormous confidence boost.

 

[sid]

Andy Murray wins RG.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Can we get back to the clay swing predictions?

 

[El Dude]

The problem with clay season predictions is that this is such an unusual year so far, that we really need to take it tournament by tournament. Going into Monte Carlo, I think Rafa is the favorite. But we also have to take seriously Stan, Novak, Andy, Thiem, and maybe Kyrgios, and one or two others.

We can talk about Madrid and Rome after MC.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa's only favourite if Rafa starts winning big. Going into the clay swing, he's vulnerable and could be taken down when we least expect it - except that after the match it won't seem so strange. It'll seem like normal, late-days Rafa. His ability to close out the deal is seriously diminished, at the mo...

 

[El Dude]

Yes, true. But look at it this way: who do you favor above Rafa? Everyone has questions. Novak could storm through and demolish everyone, or he could fizzle out and be upset by #87. Andy could be rusty and clay isn't his best surface. Stan is Jekyll/Hyde. Thiem, Kei, Kyrgios...all big questions.

I call Rafa the favorite because adding it all up, he seems to have the best chance of winning the tournament. It isn't overwhelming, but I'm giving him the edge going in.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa's only favourite if Rafa starts winning big. Going into the clay swing, he's vulnerable and could be taken down when we least expect it - except that after the match it won't seem so strange. It'll seem like normal, late-days Rafa. His ability to close out the deal is seriously diminished, at the mo...

That's why it is all the more important to take him out soon. Rafa is a confidence player. If he wins one title early, then he will be even more confident and more difficutl to take out in the next tourney.

 

[Fiero425]

Rafa's only favourite if Rafa starts winning big. Going into the clay swing, he's vulnerable and could be taken down when we least expect it - except that after the match it won't seem so strange. It'll seem like normal, late-days Rafa. His ability to close out the deal is seriously diminished, at the mo...

That's why it is all the more important to take him out soon. Rafa is a confidence player. If he wins one title early, then he will be even more confident and more difficutl to take out in the next tourney.

Let's hope the gutless tour can "end him" before getting on a confidence run on clay! :nono :angel: :cover

 

[El Dude]

Yep. If Rafa wins Monte Carlo, all of a sudden he becomes the big favorite at every clay tournament he plays in. If he loses MC, the negative impact is less but substantial: the seeds of doubt begin to sprout. But I think he really only needs on Masters title in clay to go into RG as the favorite, whether that is MC, Rome, or Madrid.