Clay Swing Predictions

[mightyjeditribble]

If Rafa doesn't win either MC or Barcelona, it would be a bit worrying for his fans IMO.
Given his results on hardcourts so far, you'd have to back him to do well, though. I doubt he'll lose to anyone other than Novak or possibly Andy.

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[Kieran]

Yes, true. But look at it this way: who do you favor above Rafa?

I wouldn't have favoured Querry above Rafa, or Roger above Rafa, but Rafa is not the Bull of Mallorca in big matches anymore. He's not the Beast. The caveat's in place: Rafa is favourite - but with a gigantic question mark hanging over everything until he dispels it...

 

[El Dude]

Yes, true. But look at it this way: who do you favor above Rafa?

I wouldn't have favoured Querry above Rafa, or Roger above Rafa, but Rafa is not the Bull of Mallorca in big matches anymore. He's not the Beast. The caveat's in place: Rafa is favourite - but with a gigantic question mark hanging over everything until he dispels it...

Yes, of course he has a giant question mark - but so does everyone else. So my question for you, again, is: who do you think has a better chance of winning MC than Rafa? I agree this isn't 2010 or 2013, or even 2014, which was probably the last year in which he was a significant favorite going into MC. But I think given the field - that Roger is out, and Andy and Novak have their own questions, and Stan is erratic - I see Rafa as the top candidate to win, if only by a small margin.

Actually, I'd probably rank them as follows in terms of chances of winning Monte Carlo:
Rafa 28%
Stan 22%
Novak 20%
Andy 15%
Thiem 5%
Kei/Kyrgios/Zverev/etc 10%

Or something like that...the numbers are just guesstimates.

 

[Front242]

Many people seem to think a well rested Roger is the clear favourite for RG. Who knows. We'll see.

 

[kskate2]

It will be tougher for Roger at RG The slower surface will require him to play some defense and I don't know that he can bring his ultra-aggressive game to those slow courts and be successful in a best of 5 scenario.

 

[Front242]

It will be tougher for Roger at RG The slower surface will require him to play some defense and I don't know that he can bring his ultra-aggressive game to those slow courts and be successful in a best of 5 scenario.

In theory, yes, but Indian Wells and Miami are both slow and guess who won them. He's proving just about everything wrong this year so I'm adopting a wait and see approach personally.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Many people seem to think a well rested Roger is the clear favourite for RG. Who knows. We'll see.

Who are these "many people" you cite?

After what happened this year, i won't count anything out.

But "favourite"? Surely not.

"Clear favourite"? Come on!

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[Front242]

Many people seem to think a well rested Roger is the clear favourite for RG. Who knows. We'll see.

Who are these "many people" you cite?

After what happened this year, i won't count anything out.

But "favourite"? Surely not.

"Clear favourite"? Come on!

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Random comments I've seen on many other forums and who's to blame them given Roger's results this year. He was about a million miles from favourite at the AO 2017 also and look how that panned out. He's now beating Nadal easily and Murray and Djokovic weren't playing well even before their injuries. Now if they both come back playing great that changes things, but it's very much up in the air for now.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Many people seem to think a well rested Roger is the clear favourite for RG. Who knows. We'll see.

Who are these "many people" you cite?

After what happened this year, i won't count anything out.

But "favourite"? Surely not.

"Clear favourite"? Come on!

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Random comments I've seen on many other forums and who's to blame them given Roger's results this year. He was about a million miles from favourite at the AO 2017 also and look how that panned out. He's now beating Nadal easily and Murray and Djokovic weren't playing well even before their injuries. Now if they both come back playing great that changes things, but it's very much up in the air for now.

But that may make him a content, not "clear favourite".

Imo, based on current information, Nadal is favourite. I'd put Djokovic as second favourite, despite his more recent troubles. He is defending champion after all!

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[Frode789]

Federer is definately an outsider, so it will be interesting to see. IMO the favorites are Nadal and Wawrinka. Djoker and Murray? Well. I guess we will see how they perform in MC to determine if they are favorites or not. Right now, they are terribly out of form.

 

[El Dude]

Gotta agree with Jeditribble, here, except to add that it is just too soon and a lot could happen over the next six weeks - it should be epic. Right now I'd put Rafa as the RG favorite, but that's assuming he builds his confidence and wins at least a Masters. If he doesn't, hard to see him winning RG.

Hard to imagine a scenario where Roger is not only on the favorite but "clear favorite." Rafa would have to be in full-on collapse or injured; Novak would have to still be floundering in a big way. Even then, I'd probably give Stan a better chance on clay.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It will be tougher for Roger at RG The slower surface will require him to play some defense and I don't know that he can bring his ultra-aggressive game to those slow courts and be successful in a best of 5 scenario.

In theory, yes, but Indian Wells and Miami are both slow and guess who won them. He's proving just about everything wrong this year so I'm adopting a wait and see approach personally.

It would be nice if it happens. But, while not writing him off, I definitely would not call him a favorite, let alone clear favorite. He can certainly be called a contender (may be fifth in line).

The most important issue is that Roger might be prone to an upset by a big hitter in RG in the early rounds especially when he is playing without match practice.

If he wins any of the other three slams, it will create a unique record. RG will give him double career slam which no one in Open era has, W will give him sole possession for max number of titles, USO also will give him sole possession for max number of titles. Hope, he wins at least one of them.

The top four contenders at RG would be Rafa, Novak, Stan and Andy and the relative ordering between them will keep on changing as we learn the results of different clay warm-up tourneys. But, I expect that just before beginning of RG the top four contenders to be the same, perhaps in a different order. Next in line would be Roger and then Thiem.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Due to discussion above, out of curiosity, I checked the odds for winning RG. Here they are.

1. Rafa 43/19
2. Novak 11/4
3. Andy 4
4. Stan 9
5. Roger 16.

I personally would put Stan ahead of Andy. Other than that I agree with the odds.

 

[Front242]

It will be tougher for Roger at RG The slower surface will require him to play some defense and I don't know that he can bring his ultra-aggressive game to those slow courts and be successful in a best of 5 scenario.

In theory, yes, but Indian Wells and Miami are both slow and guess who won them. He's proving just about everything wrong this year so I'm adopting a wait and see approach personally.

It would be nice if it happens. But, while not writing him off, I definitely would not call him a favorite, let alone clear favorite. He can certainly be called a contender (may be fifth in line).

The most important issue is that Roger might be prone to an upset by a big hitter in RG in the early rounds especially when he is playing without match practice.

If he wins any of the other three slams, it will create a unique record. RG will give him double career slam which no one in Open era has, W will give him sole possession for max number of titles, USO also will give him sole possession for max number of titles. Hope, he wins at least one of them.

The top four contenders at RG would be Rafa, Novak, Stan and Andy and the relative ordering between them will keep on changing as we learn the results of different clay warm-up tourneys. But, I expect that just before beginning of RG the top four contenders to be the same, perhaps in a different order. Next in line would be Roger and then Thiem.

Thing is so can anyone, even Rafa. He got his arse handed to him by Daniel Brands and Isner in the past so, really, anything can happen. Cold weather will help the big hitters. It's pretty much the case that big hitters can beat anyone on any given day really.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Currently Fed plans to pay RG, but may decide not to. Final decision to be made on May 10.

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/sport/tennis/ich-muss-nicht-auch-noch-kitschig-aufhoeren/story/30225287?track

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[Kieran]

In theory, yes, but Indian Wells and Miami are both slow and guess who won them. He's proving just about everything wrong this year so I'm adopting a wait and see approach personally.

It would be nice if it happens. But, while not writing him off, I definitely would not call him a favorite, let alone clear favorite. He can certainly be called a contender (may be fifth in line).

The most important issue is that Roger might be prone to an upset by a big hitter in RG in the early rounds especially when he is playing without match practice.

If he wins any of the other three slams, it will create a unique record. RG will give him double career slam which no one in Open era has, W will give him sole possession for max number of titles, USO also will give him sole possession for max number of titles. Hope, he wins at least one of them.

The top four contenders at RG would be Rafa, Novak, Stan and Andy and the relative ordering between them will keep on changing as we learn the results of different clay warm-up tourneys. But, I expect that just before beginning of RG the top four contenders to be the same, perhaps in a different order. Next in line would be Roger and then Thiem.

Thing is so can anyone, even Rafa. He got his arse handed to him by Daniel Brands and Isner in the past so, really, anything can happen. Cold weather will help the big hitters. It's pretty much the case that big hitters can beat anyone on any given day really.

Hint: cold weather slows the ball and also physically suits sluggers...

 

[Front242]

It would be nice if it happens. But, while not writing him off, I definitely would not call him a favorite, let alone clear favorite. He can certainly be called a contender (may be fifth in line).

The most important issue is that Roger might be prone to an upset by a big hitter in RG in the early rounds especially when he is playing without match practice.

If he wins any of the other three slams, it will create a unique record. RG will give him double career slam which no one in Open era has, W will give him sole possession for max number of titles, USO also will give him sole possession for max number of titles. Hope, he wins at least one of them.

The top four contenders at RG would be Rafa, Novak, Stan and Andy and the relative ordering between them will keep on changing as we learn the results of different clay warm-up tourneys. But, I expect that just before beginning of RG the top four contenders to be the same, perhaps in a different order. Next in line would be Roger and then Thiem.

Thing is so can anyone, even Rafa. He got his arse handed to him by Daniel Brands and Isner in the past so, really, anything can happen. Cold weather will help the big hitters. It's pretty much the case that big hitters can beat anyone on any given day really.

Hint: cold weather slows the ball and also physically suits sluggers...

Nah. Cold weather completely kills Nadal's topspin so he's a sitting duck then. It's no secret Soderling and fans were hoping for damper, cool conditions in 2010 and the bookies said a cool, damp day would probably have made him the favourite but it turned out a blazing sunny day so it helped Nadal's topspin. Brands and Klizan were mangling Nadal on very cool, damp days at RG till he righted the ship and they inevitably faultered. The weather picked up midway also which helped him come back. Novak also won a set 6-2 at RG 2012 as soon as the rain came 'cos Nadal's shots were sitting ducks without the topspin. It wasn't looking good for Nadal if the match had continued and frankly it was far too wet that day to play I thought personally but when they resumed the following day in sunny weather it was a different match completely.

 

[Kieran]

Negative, bro. Hot weather, the ball fizzes through the air. Colder climes, less so...

EDIT: when it's hot on clay courts especially, the ground is harder, almost like a hard court, and you can hit through players more. The Novak match is a case in point, and you made the argument well yourself: Rafa's shots weren't making enough impact to go through Novak, this is why Novak, on bright sunny days in Paris begged the ump to drench the courts and slow Rafa down. Sampras used to pray for hot sunny days in Paris, so he could impose his quick aggressive style on clay-court rats who'd lop balls back to him all day long. No surprise that his best year, 1996, the courts played like dusty hard courts...

 

[mrzz]

Nah. Cold weather completely kills Nadal's topspin so he's a sitting duck then.

Front, you gave examples, and I believe you, but I also am one of those who associate hot weather to higher speed. I am trying to figure out why cold (and damp) weather would kill top spin. I can think of two things:

A damper ball sliding on the racket, thus spinning less, and a damper (and thus softer) surface with a little less bounce.

Other explanation to the fact lesser players were giving Nadal a hard time in cold weather is the fact that it is a physical challenge to play a long match on clay, in a hot day under the sun.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

It's certainly true that, back in the day, Fed did better against Nadal in cold, damp conditions. In hot weather, the ball would sit up so high with Nadal's spin.

Invariably, the weather would be good when they played at RG, or at least so it seems in my memory ...

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