Clay Swing Predictions

[delPoFearhand]

Just wondering what everyone is expecting out of the clay court swing this year. Generally speaking, I think it will be a good swing for Rafa, Djoko will have a return to form, and Murray will continue to struggle getting big results but will do OK on clay like he usually does. I'm also looking for a breakout by Dominic Thiem, playing his power baseline game on his favorite surface with time to set up his huge shots. I don't have super high hopes for Fed coming back just for RG.

My predictions for the major tournaments, obviously to be taken with a few grains of salt due to draws/injuries/etc.:

Monte Carlo: Nadal beats Thiem in the final
Madrid: Djokovic beats Murray in the final
Rome: Nadal beats Wawrinka in the final
Roland Garros: Nadal wins La Decima over Djokovic in the final

This is of course going to have huge ranking implications for Novak, though Murray is not defending an insignificant number of points through here either. It will make the YE #1 race very interesting.

 

[Kieran]

I like them predictions, and they're not hugely far-fetched. By the way, I smiled when I saw Thiem: didn't Tignor predict him to win Miami? Upon what - exactly - does Tignor base his predictions? Does he read bubbles in the bath, and go, Huzzah, I know who'll win! Thank you, Bubbles!

My only caveat with Rafa is the one I expressed after Oz - and it's that he's not playing Big Matches like he used to. He's timid, tentative and not as aggressive and cocky as he needs to be to win those finals - and it doesn't really matter who he faces.

As for Novak, I dunno when he'll return, or what kind of form he's going to be in. Nearest comparison I can make is with Borg, who just burnt out and didn't want it anymore. He's not young either. He's at that age where players decline, in the natural, way of things. The un-FUBAR way, if you like. Plus, he's gonna have to earn it again. The aura he once had has vanished. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

 

[El Dude]

It is hard to see Rafa winning three of the four big titles, but if he wins Monte Carlo he'll be re-invigorated and hard to beat in the other tournaments. But I think a more realistic prediction is one Masters and Roland Garros, or possibly just two Masters.

I also wouldn't count Kyrgios out. I know his game won't play as well on clay, but consider what we saw in IW and Miami: he was pretty much unbeatable, storming through his quarters, withdrawing in one and only just barely losing to the hottest player on tour. He's due for a big breakthrough, and maybe sooner than later.

Of course Kyrgios could also struggle in clay, get beat by one of the Big Four in Wimbledon, and then get his breakthrough big title in Canada or Cincinnati.

 

[El Dude]

Novak is impossible to predict. He could continue struggling, or he could come back and win Roland Garros. Either way, the thing I'm most hoping to see during clay season - aside from the ever-elusive breakthrough title from one of the younger players - is a Rafa-Novak match. I'm really curious how it would go. Novak had been so dominant of Rafa, winning seven in a row, but Rafa is somewhat resurgent and Novak is struggling. Either Rafa gets his revenge or Novak uses the opposition to find his form.

 

[Kieran]

Novak is impossible to predict. He could continue struggling, or he could come back and win Roland Garros. Either way, the thing I'm most hoping to see during clay season - aside from the ever-elusive breakthrough title from one of the younger players - is a Rafa-Novak match. I'm really curious how it would go. Novak had been so dominant of Rafa, winning seven in a row, but Rafa is somewhat resurgent and Novak is struggling. Either Rafa gets his revenge or Novak uses the opposition to find his form.

Novak actually played well in the WTF - but in the final he lacked sureness and conviction and Murray was the more hungry. Maybe Novak will have gotten his appetite for fight back, and the thought of a second FO title will trim his beard for him. He's made hay on an inferior Rafa for a while now, and to be frank, until Rafa proves otherwise, Novak will still be dealing with a player who last plumbed the depths of his greatness at the FO, 2014. That's a long time ago. And a lot of losses to a lot of players. Multiple losses against some, and I don't only include Novak or Federer in that list.

In some ways, a Novak-Rafa match might be like one between fogeys. Their previous match in Rome was a classic. Pity Rafa was injured later and dropped out of Paris, the way he looked then. He was heading in the right direction...

 

[mrzz]

Things really look quite interesting for the clay swing. I liked the predictions in the OP, even if they feel a bit optimistic.

I would guess by RG Djokovic would have found a good form again. He was pretty frustrated by the losses he had, which is a good sign. Given the context, I do not think anyone will dominate the clay swing, but if someone can do that, it would be Nadal.

But I would not be surprised to see different players spoiling the party. There is a clear window of opportunity in this clay season and surely the field sensed it. All the second tier players are surely training their hearts out right now.

 

[Fiero425]

Novak is impossible to predict. He could continue struggling, or he could come back and win Roland Garros. Either way, the thing I'm most hoping to see during clay season - aside from the ever-elusive breakthrough title from one of the younger players - is a Rafa-Novak match. I'm really curious how it would go. Novak had been so dominant of Rafa, winning seven in a row, but Rafa is somewhat resurgent and Novak is struggling. Either Rafa gets his revenge or Novak uses the opposition to find his form.

Novak actually played well in the WTF - but in the final he lacked sureness and conviction and Murray was the more hungry. Maybe Novak will have gotten his appetite for fight back, and the thought of a second FO title will trim his beard for him. He's made hay on an inferior Rafa for a while now, and to be frank, until Rafa proves otherwise, Novak will still be dealing with a player who last plumbed the depths of his greatness at the FO, 2014. That's a long time ago. And a lot of losses to a lot of players. Multiple losses against some, and I don't only include Novak or Federer in that list.

In some ways, a Novak-Rafa match might be like one between fogeys. Their previous match in Rome was a classic. Pity Rafa was injured later and dropped out of Paris, the way he looked then. He was heading in the right direction...

We can only hope Novak comes back strong, but it's been a nightmare with predictions the last year! After near perfection for a couple season after winning '14 Wimbledon final, we have high expectations of Nole! I'm not a big fan of his style, but he makes me root for him since he's rivaled Lendl in being the top player for years, but in that era it was still about Borg, Connors, & McEnroe! If not for his 8 straight finals at the USO that keeps his name relevant, he might have indeed faded into obscurity! Even Federer couldn't keep that up with the weak era he's been able to inflate his numbers! IMO Roger's still the GOAT, 'A' #1 of all time, but asterisks will mentally be affixed to his name for obvious reasons IMO! I wouldn't be surprised if Novak doesn't come back focused and ready, but physically I think he still has it in him to win a couple more majors! I know I will look forward to him competing again; to at least stem this retro-Fedal tide! It was boring to me 10 years ago; it will again! The only thing different is Nadal's fallen on very hard times and has started losing to his personal "pigeon;" the last 4 times! WOW! It's over for him! :nono

- - http://fiero4251.blogspot.com/2016/08/fan-page-novak-nole-djokovic.html - -

 

[El Dude]

Asterisks will be affixed to his names for "obvious reasons?" Haha, yeah, right. Too whom, might I ask? Not to serious fans of tennis with a deep understanding of the game and its history. To biased Roger-haters? Sure.

 

[isabelle]

too soon to predict anything imo

 

[Keanes]

But I think a more realistic prediction is one Masters and Roland Garros, or possibly just two Masters.

Better than nothing I guess.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

 

[Fiero425]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

Ding, ding, ding! :woohoos I was so disappointed until now! It wasn't exactly rocket-science! :nono - - BLOG - -

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

Ding, ding, ding! :woohoos I was so disappointed until now! It wasn't exactly rocket-science! :nono - - BLOG - -

What's the issue you think with Djokovic in a sentence?

 

[Fiero425]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

Ding, ding, ding! :woohoos I was so disappointed until now! It wasn't exactly rocket-science! :nono - - BLOG - -

What's the issue you think with Djokovic in a sentence?

Already expressed it; like Lendl back in the day with Borg, McEnroe, & Connors, Nole's an afterthought with Fedal owning this era lock, stock, & barrel! :nono :angel:

 

[Kieran]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

How is Federer's age an issue when suddenly he's 5 years younger than Nadal and has beaten him 4 times in a row? :laydownlaughing

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

How is Federer's age an issue when suddenly he's 5 years younger than Nadal and has beaten him 4 times in a row? :laydownlaughing

I am not sure but all throughout their careers Nadal would have had a slight advantage due to the age difference. That's all I am saying. Especially after roger crossed 30 and before he got his new racquet. That Roger has turned the tables now is largely due to his brilliance. He had to do more than what was a reasonable expectation to make of him. It was marvellous and unthinkable. Its partly also due to the fact that Nadal is very passive these days. That said age difference is not an excuse. Only a factor perhaps.

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[Kieran]

An asterisk also lies next to the Roger's 'poor' h2h with the all boys five-six years younger than him. Only an asterisk, I am saying.

How is Federer's age an issue when suddenly he's 5 years younger than Nadal and has beaten him 4 times in a row? :laydownlaughing

I am not sure but all throughout their careers Nadal would have had a slight advantage due to the age difference. That's all I am saying. Especially after roger crossed 30 and before he got his new racquet. That Roger has turned the tables now is largely due to his brilliance. He had to do more than what was a reasonable expectation to make of him. It was marvellous and unthinkable. Its partly also due to the fact that Nadal is very passive these days. That said age difference is not an excuse. Only a factor perhaps.

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But Roger was brilliant from 2004-2009, and Rafa regularly shop-floored him? I think age matters, by the way. Rafa is ageing, and it's affecting him in all the obvious ways, including his being more passive. Roger is ageing in the opposite direction, he's unaffected by long struggles etc, and he's beaten Rafa four times in a row, he's beaten Andy 5 times in a row (dropping only one set) and even Novak in his peak years has lost 6 times against Federer, since he achieved Deathlessness in 2014. It's actually an unprecedented and highly unlikely surge by a player that old.

As for Rafa's chances on clay, I see he mentioned that he's looking forward to playing on clay again. I'd love to know what's in his mind, is he happy with the season so far (and why not?) and does he really believe in himself at this level still, and does he feel cocky enough to swing freely again, unlike he has in big matches on the hards. He's a complex, sensitive creature, mixed in with his physical awkwardness, tics, and immense aggressive tendencies. I never lose faith in Rafa, I always feel that if he reaches his best levels, then it's irrelevant who's facing him, they're in for a world of darkness and pain, and they better be willing to bleed and break bones to win against him.

But I'm realistic too: he can only get back to near those levels physically - it would be FUBAR if he was still like a young man again - but can he overcome this fearful mentality that makes him timid and drop balls short against his main rivals? Oh, and even against blokes like Sam Querry, once there's a prize at stake?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa feels, healthy, happy and optimistic. He says he has already reached three finals playing on hard courts. He says "clay always gives him that extra help" which will make him get over the final hump and win titles.

 

[El Dude]

I don't think the age difference really came into play until 2007-08, when Roger started to slip a bit. In 2004-06, Roger was at the peak of his powers and showing no sign of decline.

GSM, that's what Rafa says - what he actually feels may (or may not) be a different matter. I'm definitely thinking he's excited to start clay season, and more hopeful, but I'm guessing there's a bit of doubt there, and worry.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't think the age difference really came into play until 2007-08, when Roger started to slip a bit. In 2004-06, Roger was at the peak of his powers and showing no sign of decline.

GSM, that's what Rafa says - what he actually feels may (or may not) be a different matter. I'm definitely thinking he's excited to start clay season, and more hopeful, but I'm guessing there's a bit of doubt there, and worry.

I'd say Roger had the "age advantage" from 2004-2008 and maybe we'd say 2009 was the closest thing to equal as Roger turned 28 and Rafa was 23. Historically it's better to be 23 as a tennis player as many of the past greats were already showing signs of decline by 26-27. But in the current era it seems that players are ageing better than before. I think from 2010 until whenever one of them retires it is fair to say Rafa has had the age advantage. Roger has beaten him the last 4 times but obviously it's better to be 30 than 35 in tennis.