CLAY SEASON - General Discussion

[lob]

[QUOTE="....My question is who could really take him out at RG, particularly. (If he loses here or there before, that is mostly fine.) Djokovic? Probably not ready. Wawrinka? Scheduled to play Madrid and Rome, but he didn't fare too well v. Rafa last year. Thiem? Schwartzman? Sasha Zverev? Carreño Busta? I'd guess "surprise player to be named later," or "Rafa's body." This year's field looks better for Nadal than last year's. If Rafa stays healthy and keeps his eyes on the big prize, I don't think there's anything to say someone might take him down at RG ..[/QUOTE]

This is a good summary. We just saw the yawning gap between Rafa and Sasha in DC. For much of the match, to me at least, it felt like ATP vs. WTA and Sasha is world no. #4 who is 6'6'' tall. At the moment there is no one who can send back that forehand - with interest - on clay for three full sets. Of course, an RG upset is possible but it will have to be a perfect storm of a match. A bare minimum is that someone with balls has to catch fire and Rafa simultaneously has a very bad day.

 

[mrzz]

Refresher on Clay winners of this year in South America: RCB, Thiem, Shortman, Fog.

What is RCB up to these days (not to be confused with PCB)

GSM, RCB is an up and coming player, he was playing qualifiers and losing them. I guess he entered the draw here in SP and lost early. Quito is played at almost 3000 meters altitude, so if people discount a little Madrid given the speed due to the altitude, they should discount Quito 4 times more. It is such an unique tournament -- I think there is just one in Switzerland that might come close in altitude, that is not much of a predictor...

 

[Fiero425]

[QUOTE="....My question is who could really take him out at RG, particularly. (If he loses here or there before, that is mostly fine.) Djokovic? Probably not ready. Wawrinka? Scheduled to play Madrid and Rome, but he didn't fare too well v. Rafa last year. Thiem? Schwartzman? Sasha Zverev? Carreño Busta? I'd guess "surprise player to be named later," or "Rafa's body." This year's field looks better for Nadal than last year's. If Rafa stays healthy and keeps his eyes on the big prize, I don't think there's anything to say someone might take him down at RG ..

This is a good summary. We just saw the yawning gap between Rafa and Sasha in DC. For much of the match, to me at least, it felt like ATP vs. WTA and Sasha is world no. #4 who is 6'6'' tall. At the moment there is no one who can send back that forehand - with interest - on clay for three full sets. Of course, an RG upset is possible but it will have to be a perfect storm of a match. A bare minimum is that someone with balls has to catch fire and Rafa simultaneously has a very bad day.[/QUOTE]

We can always hope! :whistle:

 

[Chris Koziarz]

I don't think PCB or Chung are considered clay players.

Hmmm, that ended the discussion about Chung on this thread. IMO you dismiss Chung too quickly. Everybody (incl myself) says Chung is growing to be Novak's successor and Novak can play on clay so why not Chung? I secretly raise a hope here that Chung be a serious contestant to beat Rafa this clay season.

 

[Carol]

Why someones have so much obsession about who could beat Nadal? I know why......Anyway, Vamos Nadal , win Montecarlo, another tournament and then the 11!!!!!

 

[herios]

Hmmm, that ended the discussion about Chung on this thread. IMO you dismiss Chung too quickly. Everybody (incl myself) says Chung is growing to be Novak's successor and Novak can play on clay so why not Chung? I secretly raise a hope here that Chung be a serious contestant to beat Rafa this clay season.

Having not seen much of Chung matches, what I have read is that his strength is defense. If that is the case, he should do well on clay.

 

[Moxie]

Hmmm, that ended the discussion about Chung on this thread. IMO you dismiss Chung too quickly. Everybody (incl myself) says Chung is growing to be Novak's successor and Novak can play on clay so why not Chung? I secretly raise a hope here that Chung be a serious contestant to beat Rafa this clay season.

I don't mean to shut down conversation on Chung. I like the guy. I hope he makes noise this clay season, though I won't be hoping the him to upset Rafa, if you don't mind.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Why someones have so much obsession about who could beat Nadal? I know why......Anyway, Vamos Nadal , win Montecarlo, another tournament and then the 11!!!!!

Because that's the way tennis works! Spotlight is always on the tops guys. Both on the forums like this and in the locker room. All players and coaches who want to win a trophy themselves, are in virtual conspiracy trying to find the game to beat the competitors standing in the way. I bet even schemes can emerge where two players are devising a joint plan (although they will never admit it outside their circles) how to tire the top guy in an earlier round so that he's easier to beat in the next.
Don't be mistaken that it's only about Nadal. Only now on clay. Next, it's going to be about Roger on grass.

 

[Moxie]

Having not seen much of Chung matches, what I have read is that his strength is defense. If that is the case, he should do well on clay.

I looked him up. He has a decent record on clay. And your point is well-taken. Also, he's patient and pretty calm, which is also helpful on clay.

 

[herios]

I looked him up. He has a decent record on clay. And your point is well-taken. Also, he's patient and pretty calm, which is also helpful on clay.

On another note, I agree with you about PCB. His best results came on HC and not on clay.

 

[Moxie]

Because that's the way tennis works! Spotlight is always on the tops guys. Both on the forums like this and in the locker room. All players and coaches who want to win a trophy themselves, are in virtual conspiracy trying to find the game to beat the competitors standing in the way. I bet even schemes can emerge where two players are devising a joint plan (although they will never admit it outside their circles) how to tire the top guy in an earlier round so that he's easier to beat in the next.
Don't be mistaken that it's only about Nadal. Only now on clay. Next, it's going to be about Roger on grass.

I agree about the guys with the targets on their backs. I'm having a hard time with your conspiracy theory of players colluding to take someone down, though. Any player is going to try their best to take down a top player in front of them...what choice to they have? But if they can play them close enough to work them over, they might actually beat them, which they would hope to do, on their own. If they wear the guy out before their buddy gets him in the next round, so much the better, I guess. But no one is going to "only" try to tire out a player without aspirations to win unless there were a quid pro quo, and that, I'm fairly certain, would be illegal. It also assumes that the draw suits two particular players who would be inclined to collude together. Now, as a laugh between 2 friends over dinner who stand to face an elite player in consecutive rounds, I could believe they talk about it. But not with any specific intention. I can't imagine how it would work in real life.

 

[Fiero425]

On another note, I agree with you about PCB. His best results came on HC and not on clay.

Isn't that always the way? A player can be thought of as a specialist on one surface, then make the news winning on another! I think of Agassi who had been touted to be the next great player in '86, but kept losing major final after major final until Wimbledon of '92! Even he didn't believe it collapsing on the grass after Ivanisevic hit another BH volley error in the 5th set! :whistle: :cuckoo:

 

[Moxie]

On another note, I agree with you about PCB. His best results came on HC and not on clay.

Naw, turns out I'm wrong about him, too. He has a higher winning pct. on clay, with a sizable sample. Of his 3 titles, 2 are on HC, but his most recent is Estoril, on clay. So I guess he's still in the mix, too. He made QFs of RG last year (ret.v Nadal,) and SF of USO. He's on an upward trajectory.

 

[mrzz]

I like Chung too, but this new Djokovic thing is starting to give me shivers. Their style has a few similarities, but it is not that close. There are a lot of clearly different things about their game. But the main point is, when you compare someone to a top dog, one thing is to have a similar style, and other, COMPLETELY different, is to have the ability to translate your style to a winning formula.

If someone starts finishing his forehand movement like he is roping cattle he will not necessarily become the next Nadal, the same way just because a guy can defend and stretch his legs does not make him the new Djokovic.

 

[Moxie]

I like Chung too, but this new Djokovic thing is starting to give me shivers. Their style has a few similarities, but it is not that close. There are a lot of clearly different things about their game. But the main point is, when you compare someone to a top dog, one thing is to have a similar style, and other, COMPLETELY different, is to have the ability to translate your style to a winning formula.

If someone starts finishing his forehand movement like he is roping cattle he will not necessarily become the next Nadal, the same way just because a guy can defend and stretch his legs does not make him the new Djokovic.

Let's be honest: if we're looking for the next Federer or Nadal or Djokovic, we're more than likely chasing something we won't get. There are similarities in the games of some players to those of the best, but they are unlikely to have the skills, the head or the heart of a champion to do what those have done. We're making pale comparisons. But it's what we've got. Maybe what we do need is something completely different. Dimitrov as the poor-man's Fed hasn't panned out. Maybe the wild men like Kyrgios and Shapolov are the way forward.

 

[herios]

Let's be honest: if we're looking for the next Federer or Nadal or Djokovic, we're more than likely chasing something we won't get. There are similarities in the games of some players to those of the best, but they are unlikely to have the skills, the head or the heart of a champion to do what those have done. We're making pale comparisons. But it's what we've got. Maybe what we do need is something completely different. Dimitrov as the poor-man's Fed hasn't panned out. Maybe the wild men like Kyrgios and Shapolov are the way forward.

I am wondering why you guys keep expecting Kyrgios to become a dominant player.
He is the poster child for a dark horse, nothing more.

 

[Moxie]

I am wondering why you guys keep expecting Kyrgios to become a dominant player.
He is the poster child for a dark horse, nothing more.

It's not really "expecting" so much as hoping, at least for me. My point above was that, rather than looking for the next (Fed/Nad/Joker), we should look for something new. Nadal, for example, was something new. I can understand why you say that Kyrgios might, at best, be a dark horse, and more likely just a spoiler, but, IMO, he has an electric and unusual game. It's a question of reigning his head and attitude in. Similarly, Shapo is brash and talented and a little off the rails, yet. To me, if they could be "gentled," they could be amazing. I'm not so interested in lesser-versions of better players.

 

[herios]

I had enough time to analyze what Kyrgios has done. His main issue is inconsistency and secondly, many injuries. These are preventing him to get better results.

 

[10isfan]

I expect Shapo be to top 5. He has an all court game which takes a bit longer to perfect but he’ll get there. I’ve no doubt about that. Kyrgios, on the other hand, gets no faith from me. He reminds me of Monfils, lots of crazy shots and injuries. They both play as though they don’t quite know how to play tennis despite supreme athleticism. I think Kyrgios will have a career like Monfils is having.

 

[Moxie]

I expect Shapo be to top 5. He has an all court game which takes a bit longer to perfect but he’ll get there. I’ve no doubt about that. Kyrgios, on the other hand, gets no faith from me. He reminds me of Monfils, lots of crazy shots and injuries. They both play as though they don’t quite know how to play tennis despite supreme athleticism. I think Kyrgios will have a career like Monfils is having.

It's totally possible that Monfils makes a great analogy for Kyrgios. But I'm going to remind us all of @mrzz's reminder that we can't predict tennis. Though, in fairness, all we do around here is make predictions and argue them, so, fair enough.