CLAY SEASON - General Discussion

[GameSetAndMath]

What are you talking about?

That was an example of a terrible joke in which you interpret things literally.

 

[Moxie]

That was an example of a terrible joke in which you interpret things literally.

?

 

[Federberg]

Yes it did: Talking about current decade:

In 2017 no one saw neither Federer nor Nadal coming. They both did.
In 2016 no one saw Murray turning the tables over Djokovic, stepping up to #1 by winning a major and YEC
In 2015 no one saw Wawrinka winning the French
In 2014 no one saw Wawrinka and Cilic winning majors
In 2013 no one saw Nadal storming back as he did (not even his rational fans, sorry to put it that bluntly)
In 2012 maybe nothing strange happened, I do not remember
In 2011 no one saw Djokovic coming.

I don't think that was that big of a surprise to be honest

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yes it did: Talking about current decade:

In 2017 no one saw neither Federer nor Nadal coming. They both did. AP.. I did
In 2016 no one saw Murray turning the tables over Djokovic, stepping up to #1 by winning a major and YEC
In 2015 no one saw Wawrinka winning the French AP.. I did..Stan has always been a bad matchup for Novak
In 2014 no one saw Wawrinka and Cilic winning majors
In 2013 no one saw Nadal storming back as he did (not even his rational fans, sorry to put it that bluntly)
In 2012 maybe nothing strange happened, I do not remember
In 2011 no one saw Djokovic coming.

 

[mrzz]

I would love to engage on a lengthy discussion about all those years, unfortunately I cannot. But I tell you what I would do: I would prepare a list of the expected (at the time) outcome of each year, and compare it to what actually happened. Stark differences would appear on most of them. Problem is that we look at things in hindsight. This way they surely look predictable...

Edit. Of course tennis is more predictable in the era of the big three. But it is still quite unpredictable.

 

[El Dude]

I hear what you are saying @mrzz. It isn’t that the status quo was continually upset, but that each year brought it’s own surprises and was never quite how it was presumed to be.

Or as a wise man once said, “difficult to see...always in motion, the future is.”

 

[Mastoor]

Thank you for the briefing, guys. Lots of what you said I wasn't aware of. Moxie, I think that Ferrer at 36 will have difficulty with consistency.

 

[Moxie]

I would love to engage on a lengthy discussion about all those years, unfortunately I cannot. But I tell you what I would do: I would prepare a list of the expected (at the time) outcome of each year, and compare it to what actually happened. Stark differences would appear on most of them. Problem is that we look at things in hindsight. This way they surely look predictable...

Edit. Of course tennis is more predictable in the era of the big three. But it is still quite unpredictable.

I think both things are true. I'm always in the camp of "just because it happened this year, doesn't mean it's going to stay that way indefinitely." But, as you say, this era has been rather more predictable.

I'll tackle your points, and you riff off of them as you have time:

2017: For sure, we thought that it was going to be the year of Murray/Djokovic, with Fedal fading into the sunset. The surprise was that it was the opposite. The less than surprising part was that, in the absence of Andy and Novak, it was Fedal that really stepped up, and hardly anyone new, and not at Majors.

2016: No one foresaw Djokovic not bouncing back from a fade after RG, but again, not so surprising that it was Murray, of all the options.

2015: OK, Stan was definitely a surprise in that final. Everyone thought it was Nole's that year.

2014: Wawrinka and Cilic: correct...no one would have called either, really. In fact, I will add the big shock: USO final. Everyone thought Roger and Novak would repeat in the final after W, esp. with Rafa not there to defend. Instead, both lost in the SFs, and it was a Cilic/Nishikori final. That was fresh.

2013: Again, true. Nadal's comeback was fearsome, and more than even a fan could have wished for. But still, it was Nadal.

2012: Nothing strange happened. Each of the big 4 won a Major, and they tended to be the last 4 men standing at big tourneys. OK, Andy won a gold medal and finally got his first Major, but no one could call those wins shocking.

2011: Djokovic didn't come out of left field, as a perennial #3-4, but no, no one really thought he'd take such a big leap forward in form and confidence, and that it would last so long.

All that said, these times won't last forever, and I think we're moving into a period that's going to be LOADS more complicated to predict.

 

[Moxie]

Thank you for the briefing, guys. Lots of what you said I wasn't aware of. Moxie, I think that Ferrer at 36 will have difficulty with consistency.

He has had. There has been a noticeable drop in his consistency. I was just speculating that an emotional DC win in his hometown last weekend might give him some renewed focus and confidence in this clay season. On the other hand, his wife is having a baby in the next weeks, so there's a distraction for you.

 

[Carol]

Yep, Ferru won't play in MC because he will be father soon (maybe this week) and he wants to be with his wife and baby in those special first weeks

 

[Moxie]

Here's a recap of last year's European clay swing:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/video/getting-down--dirty-2018-clay-swing-preview

 

[Federberg]

https://www.ubitennis.net/2018/04/feliciano-lopez-discusses-roger-federers-presence-madrid-open/

 

[El Dude]

I can't remember, did we make predictions?

I predict that Rafa will win three of the five clay tournaments he enters, with two upsets. Don't have anything more specific. My two main candidates to win the others are Thiem and Zverev, with Schwartzman being my darkhorse.

Novak starts showing flashes of his old form, but still not close to par. But there's hope.

This is more wishful thinking, but Roger is a surprise entrant at either Madrid or Roland Garros.

Finally, lots of hot, sexy Next Gen action (this one's for @Fiero425)

 

[Moxie]

Even though Zverev won Rome last year, I'm not looking for him to make noise this clay season. He's not taking the tour by storm, atm. Having a bit of a sophomore slump. I like Schwartzman better than him, for this clay season. Thiem will be looking to do damage, but he also hasn't been lighting up the tour, and I don't worry about him v. Rafa. Goffin is another one that would otherwise be a threat, but he's having trouble coming back from his injuries. Djokovic? Pfft. Not this clay season. Too many intangibles to be sorted out. I do think the NextGen could get a foot hold in, if anyone. And I'd be very surprised if Roger gets drawn in by clay. Unless, what...Rafa completely folds?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Let me predict the winners of the clay tourneys in which there is no Rafa. There are four of them. I give one to Fog, one to Grigor,
one to Kohly and one to Pella.

p.s. I don't even know whether these folks are entered in those tourneys, let alone they being in different tournaments.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I can't remember, did we make predictions?

I predict that Rafa will win three of the five clay tournaments he enters, with two upsets. Don't have anything more specific. My two main candidates to win the others are Thiem and Zverev, with Schwartzman being my darkhorse.

Novak starts showing flashes of his old form, but still not close to par. But there's hope.

This is more wishful thinking, but Roger is a surprise entrant at either Madrid or Roland Garros.

Finally, lots of hot, sexy Next Gen action (this one's for @Fiero425)

I second your Rafa Title Count. I would distribute the left overs to Thiem and Borna Coric.

 

[Moxie]

I second your Rafa Title Count. I would distribute the left overs to Thiem and Borna Coric.

They haven't been exactly lighting up the world of late. You also mentioned Fognini, Dimitrov, Kohly and Pella for clay wins. I'd leave Kohlschreiber off. And you didn't like Schwartzman. I'd put him in the mix.

 

[Moxie]

I can't remember, did we make predictions?

I predict that Rafa will win three of the five clay tournaments he enters, with two upsets. Don't have anything more specific. My two main candidates to win the others are Thiem and Zverev, with Schwartzman being my darkhorse.

Novak starts showing flashes of his old form, but still not close to par. But there's hope.

This is more wishful thinking, but Roger is a surprise entrant at either Madrid or Roland Garros.

Finally, lots of hot, sexy Next Gen action (this one's for @Fiero425)

Presuming Rafa enters MC, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and RG. You think he'll lose two. I don't think his MC draw is as tough as the commies are making out. I still wouldn't mind if he's skip Barcelona, so that would be one. The other most likely place for him to lose would be Madrid.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Refresher on Clay winners of this year in South America: RCB, Thiem, Shortman, Fog.

What is RCB up to these days (not to be confused with PCB)

 

[the AntiPusher]

Presuming Rafa enters MC, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and RG. You think he'll lose two. I don't think his MC draw is as tough as the commies are making out. I still wouldn't mind if he's skip Barcelona, so that would be one. The other most likely place for him to lose would be Madrid.

Madrid & Rome..As Yoda would say “Lose Rafa May”