Chess World Championship: Carlsen-Caruana

[DarthFed]

h4 secures a straightforward draw. This one could eat at Caruana a lot more than game 6 which was extremely well played. It will be down to 2 whites each. I now have Carlsen closer to 80-20 favorite

 

[DarthFed]

Nothing here but gxh4 Qxf4 Qxf4 for black. Anything else would be some major Carlsen greed

 

[Federberg]

Missed it. Had to schmooze clients. Sounds like you’re saying Fabi blew an edge? Is that right?

 

[DarthFed]

Missed it. Had to schmooze clients. Sounds like you’re saying Fabi blew an edge? Is that right?

Yep. It wasn't yet a decisive edge like game 1 for Magnus but it was building and black was in trouble. Nc4 was the safest continuation there that would've put Magnus in serious pressure. Qh5 also looks fairly strong there. Magnus gained the valuable time to get in Qe8 which quickly led to an even position.

 

[Federberg]

^For some reason it feels to me like Caruana needs to take advantage of these opportunities before Magnus puts together a special game. I have the sense that he's been much closer to his potential than Magnus has been. I think the chess has been titanic in this match. A true battle of 2800, I'm not in the least bit surprised it's difficult to get a win

 

[Federberg]

wow! 24. h3?? Fabi....

Extraordinary from a player like Fabi. He must have seen ghosts, Nc4 seemed so natural

 

[DarthFed]

^For some reason it feels to me like Caruana needs to take advantage of these opportunities before Magnus puts together a special game. I have the sense that he's been much closer to his potential than Magnus has been. I think the chess has been titanic in this match. A true battle of 2800, I'm not in the least bit surprised it's difficult to get a win

More than worrying about Magnus scoring a win he has to worry about somehow breaking through in the next 4 games. Magnus is fine with 4 draws as that pretty much ends the match.

I felt like Magnus was very slightly the better player the first 4-5 games but since then Caruana has been clearly stronger. Surprisingly I feel like Magnus has held his own easily in openings but Caruana has often been outplaying him in the middle game. I'd figure it'd be the other way around.

 

[DarthFed]

I'm interested to see how aggressive Magnus is today. He may be content to play it safe and draw as white and then dig in as black two more times. It is a dangerous strategy but so is overreaching when it's this close to the end and you know you have a huge edge in the tiebreaker

 

[Federberg]

Yes I agree. But the thing is that Magnus's natural style is such that he only ever looks for small edges. No reason to change. If he's feeling especially conservative at the moment then all he has to do is not overreach like he has tended to sometimes. As you say though he has tended to be out played in the middle games in the last few games. Funnily enough it seems to me that this has generally been because he's gone for the more cautious option. The thing that always impressed me about Magnus was the fact that given 2 or 3 strong moves, Carlsen has always tended to go for the one that he thinks will cause the particular opponent a problem, regardless of whether it's slightly weaker than the other options. I'm not sure he's been posing those sort of problems for Fabi here. It must mean he respects him hugely

 

[Federberg]

this is interesting... Fabi burning up a lot of time here.

 

[Federberg]

wow... Bxf3

 

[DarthFed]

White clearly with a more comfortable position but with all the trades and OCB this shouldn't be difficult to draw for Caruana.

 

[Federberg]

yes that's my thinking. I'm fascinated that the engines are giving Magnus 0.5 - 0.75 of an edge here. And he's also playing the best computer moves over the last 4 or 5 moves. With the time that Fabi has burned that could be dangerous if Magnus has a complete grip on his plan right now

 

[DarthFed]

Caruana will hope to get to an uncomplicated position where he can make a bunch of moves quickly to make time control without worrying about the major mistake it would take to lose here. White potentially landing his queen on f7 is a definite annoyance here

 

[DarthFed]

Qe7 is played and looks right. Now Bc6, Rf8 and black should have time for g6 and Kg7

 

[DarthFed]

h4 and g6 quickly played. I like Carlsen's thinking here. More playable position and safer king, only realistic way to win this is a successful attack on the king. In time pressure a mistake could make this winnable. Last game Caruana made a mistake which made a very uncomfortable position for Carlsen a draw due to an attack

 

[DarthFed]

Wow, now Carlsen has definitely made things more conplicated. Well done on his part.

 

[DarthFed]

Caruana is one tough cookie! Magnus really having trouble causing any serious problems after game 3 or 4 and really only having a big chance in game 1. Still it will be down to 3 games for Caruana. All Carlsen has to do is draw

 

[Federberg]

Yup agreed. Just got back and saw that all of Magnus's advantage has fizzled again. Can't say I'm surprised!

 

[DarthFed]

Magnus will make him suffer here. I missed a large sequence of moves but it would seem Caruana made life a little more difficult on himself