BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, CA, 2021 - ATP Masters 1000

El Dude

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Interesting that Grigor is the "old man" of the semifinals. We could have a new Masters champion.

@Moxie and @rafanoy1992 , my guess for Medvedev would be anywhere in the 3-5 range, but I don't see ATG 6+ Slam status.

In my view, the best candidate for the next 6+ Slam winner would be Sinner. Then probably Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev. Then Alcaraz Garfia and Auger-Aliassime.
 
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don_fabio

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Just as I finally got comfortable with the idea of guys like Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas reaching the end of big tournaments and slams, now I have Norrie, Fritz, Basilashvilli and ''woken up from dead'' Dimitrov in semis of IW. A bit underwhelming IW similar to Miami this year.
 

Moxie

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Interesting that Grigor is the "old man" of the semifinals. We could have a new Masters champion.

@Moxie and @rafanoy1992 , my guess for Medvedev would be anywhere in the 3-5 range, but I don't see ATG 6+ Slam status.

In my view, the best candidate for the next 6+ Slam winner would be Sinner. Then probably Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev. Then Alcaraz Garfia and Auger-Aliassime.
Yes, I noticed that Grigor has moved into the Old Man category.

I made a guess and put Meddie in at 3. But I was mad at him for losing yesterday, and I think he is not able to embrace his position. If he wins 5, it will be because too many others fail to step up to the plate, if you ask me. He's otherwise too given to squandering opportunities, and I'm not sure he's going to wholly cure that.
 

El Dude

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Yes, I noticed that Grigor has moved into the Old Man category.

I made a guess and put Meddie in at 3. But I was mad at him for losing yesterday, and I think he is not able to embrace his position. If he wins 5, it will be because too many others fail to step up to the plate, if you ask me. He's otherwise too given to squandering opportunities, and I'm not sure he's going to wholly cure that.
Yeah, it is highly unlikely that he separates himself from the pack, at least more for short spells. As of this moment, he's had more success than Zverev and Tsitsipas, but that might change. It will be interesting to see who has the best career of the three. I could see them playing hot potato with the #1 and Slams, until some of the younger guys emerge more fully. If Djokodal relent before that happens.

While I don't think we'll see another 10+ Slam winner for awhile, one or even several of these guys could emerge somewhere in the Murray-Wilander-Edberg-Becker range (3-7 Slams). I mean, Becker won "only" 6 Slams over a 12-year span. Meaning, he wasn't winning 1-3 Slams a year like the Big Three, but one every other year (or really, five over the first seven years, then one more five years later, but the point is that he was in the top 10 a dozen years, mostly in the top 5. Of course he got started with his first at 17 and his last at 28, while the "Biggish Three" are already all in the second half of Becker's Slam-winning span (23-25 years old). But it is a different era, and it could be that 28 is the new 25, and 25 the new 22. Meaning, maybe it now takes players until 24-25 to fully come into their own, versus the 21-22 of eras past. And whereas they tended to peak at 24-25, maybe now it is 27-28.

That said, we still don't know what Sinner will look like in a couple years, or what Felix will look like once he gets over the hump of winning a title, or what sort of gears Alcaraz Garfia. I'm also rooting for Holger Rune, just because he has a bad-ass name. But he's only on the edge of the map, but he is the second highest ranked 18-year old at #124, so bears watching. Plus, he's talking big.
 
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Just as I finally got comfortable with the idea of guys like Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas reaching the end of big tournaments and slams, now I have Norrie, Fritz, Basilashvilli and ''woken up from dead'' Dimitrov in semis of IW. A bit underwhelming IW similar to Miami this year.

I checked the history of the Masters Series, going back to 1990, and this is the first time no one ranked in the Top 20 has made it to the semifinals. Maybe someone has already mentioned that, and I didn’t notice, but that’s making history in the most ignominious way.
 

El Dude

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I checked the history of the Masters Series, going back to 1990, and this is the first time no one ranked in the Top 20 has made it to the semifinals. Maybe someone has already mentioned that, and I didn’t notice, but that’s making history in the most ignominious way.
Another factor is that the recent era has been somewhat anomalous because even the Masters have been so hugely dominated by the Big Four. That has begun to break up over the last few years (thankfully). But if you go back to the 90s, a wide range of different guys on Masters - and some who weren't even regular top 20 players, like Carretero, Woodruff, Pavel, Portas, etc.
 
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Another factor is that the recent era has been somewhat anomalous because even the Masters have been so hugely dominated by the Big Four. That has begun to break up over the last few years (thankfully). But if you go back to the 90s, a wide range of different guys on Masters - and some who weren't even regular top 20 players, like Carretero, Woodruff, Pavel, Portas, etc.

But even when guys such as Woodruff, Pavel, and so on won, at least one of the Top 20 made it to the SFs.
 
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El Dude

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But even when guys such as Woodruff, Pavel, and so on won, at least one of the Top 20 made it to the SFs.
Yeah, I get it. I was just pointing out that while it is an interesting anomaly, it is more in line with the 90s, when there was a greater range of players winning big titles. This year's Indian Wells just happened to have four of them reach the SF at the same time, although in some ways Grigor doesn't fit, as he's been top 5 and already won two big titles.
 
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El Dude

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A bit more. We tend to focus on the reign of the Big Three, and whether or not (or rather, to what degree) it is starting to topple, but we're also seeing the gradual decline of the accompanying "lesser elite" and "second tier" guys: From Ferrer and Berdych's retirement, to the decline and/or injuries of Tsonga, Cilic, Del Potro, Wawrinka, etc. The young guys are filling in the gaps, but also, it seems, guys that aren't even on that level among Lost Gen and younger. Basilashvili and Norrie are probably what could be called "third tier" players: regulars in the top 50 and Slam seeding, who occasionally dip into the top 20, but aren't top 10 guys.

Fritz is interesting, because he came up alongside Zverev and Tiafoe, but stalled out (like Tiafoe, but unlike Zverev). It seems he's finally putting it together, although it is hard imagining him being more than a top 20 guy. But Rublev also was part of that "micro-cohort," and while he stalled out for a bit, he has become a bonafide second tier guy over the last couple years. Meaning, there are many variations, and it isn't "elite or bust."

But my point is, there's a window for such guys, and may continue to be a window, even if it narrows somewhat as the next elite and second tier groups solidify. And even as Next Gen and the Millenials continue to rise, I wouldn't be surprised to some of the younger LostGen and older Next Gen players, like Sonego and Djere for instance, sneak in a big title.
 
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Moxie

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Yeah, it is highly unlikely that he separates himself from the pack, at least more for short spells. As of this moment, he's had more success than Zverev and Tsitsipas, but that might change. It will be interesting to see who has the best career of the three. I could see them playing hot potato with the #1 and Slams, until some of the younger guys emerge more fully. If Djokodal relent before that happens.

While I don't think we'll see another 10+ Slam winner for awhile, one or even several of these guys could emerge somewhere in the Murray-Wilander-Edberg-Becker range (3-7 Slams). I mean, Becker won "only" 6 Slams over a 12-year span. Meaning, he wasn't winning 1-3 Slams a year like the Big Three, but one every other year (or really, five over the first seven years, then one more five years later, but the point is that he was in the top 10 a dozen years, mostly in the top 5. Of course he got started with his first at 17 and his last at 28, while the "Biggish Three" are already all in the second half of Becker's Slam-winning span (23-25 years old). But it is a different era, and it could be that 28 is the new 25, and 25 the new 22. Meaning, maybe it now takes players until 24-25 to fully come into their own, versus the 21-22 of eras past. And whereas they tended to peak at 24-25, maybe now it is 27-28.

That said, we still don't know what Sinner will look like in a couple years, or what Felix will look like once he gets over the hump of winning a title, or what sort of gears Alcaraz Garfia. I'm also rooting for Holger Rune, just because he has a bad-ass name. But he's only on the edge of the map, but he is the second highest ranked 18-year old at #124, so bears watching. Plus, he's talking big.
I expect to see what you suggest: that Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev play some "hot potato" between them for awhile. (The "hot potato" analogy is very good.) And I do think the Big 3 may relent a bit as they focus on Majors. Which could leave us with what we have here...a raft of players left at the late-stages that we didn't expect. Good opportunity for other players to make $ and points.

Re: Holger Rune: You are right...it's a badass name. (Recalls Rutger Hauer.) Let's see if he lives up to it, and his ambitions.
 
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Moxie

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Norrie getting the better of Dimitrov so far.
 

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Crazy point to win, and Fritz gets the better of it. But then doesn't get the next one.
 

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3-3 in TB. Come on Taylor!
 

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Fritz playing too conservatively and getting the errors. Go big or go home!
 

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The bolder player won. Sorry to see Fritz go out.
 

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I like Tay, but he's a headcase. He was taking it to Babycakes, Sinner and Sascha. But goes all conservative in this match. :confused:
 

Moxie

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I like Tay, but he's a headcase. He was taking it to Babycakes, Sinner and Sascha. But goes all conservative in this match. :confused:
I don't think that makes him a "head case." I think it means he needs to work on strategy. Basilashvili was going very big. Taylor had gone big in past rounds. He just pulled up at the last. He's not crazy. He didn't miss opportunities, especially. He just wasn't brave where it counted. And Basilashvili totally went brave.
 

Fiero425

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Maybe Taylor's tank ran empty
That's the problem with MOST players outside the "Big 3!" I know we keep expecting someone to break out and take over, but they seem to falter in the following weeks or months! I already knew Taylor wouldn't be able to sustain this tennis! He had to be "zoning" out to beat anyone in the top 10; NO SHADE, just fact! He's not the only one! Just because the top 3 seeds lost in IW's doesn't mean they won't pop back while the players who beat them might fall back into obscurity! I've already spoken about Dustin Brown, Robin Soderling, and many others from the past! Robin's downfall was more about his back IIRC! The rest just couldn't keep it up after their big win! Kyrgios has the game, but not the mental strength! Same w/ Shapo! ;-)