AUSTRALIAN OPEN, Melbourne, ATP GRAND SLAM

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1-Andy Murray (Britain) beat 31-Sam Querrey (U.S.) 6-4 6-2 6-4

 

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17-Roger Federer (Switzerland) beat 10-Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic) 6-2 6-4 6-4

 

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Saturday Schedule:

 

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Awesome display from Federer.

 

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Let us look at the remaining slam winners' paths in the draw - Murray, Wawrinka, Nadal, Federer.
Even though they are aging, I believe they still have an advantage over the field until someone else finally breaks through.

At this point, based on the draw in the bottom half, one would have to like Rafa's chances. First, he is the only slam winner in the bottom half. This is a big advantage, no? His arch-nemesis Djokovic is gone, leaving him what appears to be a relatively easy run to the final if he can play somewhere near his best. In the 3rd round he has young, still inexperienced #24 seed A. Zverev (Rafa leads H2H 1-0). In the 4th round, he will likely face #6 Gael Monfils (Rafa leads H2H 12-2). In the QF, he'll likely face his half's remaining toughest seeded opponent, #3 Milos Raonic (Rafa leads H2H 6-2). The SF opponent will be whomever comes out of the mess of the busted Djokovic quarter, and the highest seeds remaining are #8 Thiem (Rafa leads H2H 2-1) and #11 Goffin (H2H 0-0). Cumulative H2H - Rafa 21, opponents 5. The only thing we have to question is Rafa's fitness if someone takes him to 4 or 5 sets, but the further he goes in the tournament, the better he usually looks.

In the top half, #1 seed Murray beat the #31 seed, Querrey, in the 3rd round, and in the 4th round will play unseeded M. Zverev (Murray leads H2H 1-0). A win will see him have to take on either #5 Nishikori (Murray leads H2H 8-2) or #17 Federer (Federer leads H2H 14-11) in the QF. A semifinal is shaping up to be against #4 Stan Wawrinka (Murray leads H2H 10-7). Cumulative H2H - Sir Andy 19-9 if Nishikori beats Federer, or Murray with a slim 22-21 advantage over his opponents if Federer wins, not so easy for the top seed.

#4 seed Wawrinka, beat #29 seed Troicki in the 3rd round, and like Murray, plays an unseeded player in the 4th round, Andreas Seppi (Stan leads H2H 8-3). Then in the QF, Stan has either #12 seed, Tsonga (Stan leads H2H 4-3), or unseeded Dan Evans (Stan leads H2H 1-0). A semifinal shapes up to be #1 Murray (Andy leads H2H 10-7). So Stan has a 19-16 H2H adv. should Tsonga win or 16-13 if Evans takes it. Slim lead and he has a slam winner in his path with a better record.

#17 seed Federer beat #10 seed Berdych in the 3rd round, but in the 4th round faces #5 Nishikori (Federer leads H2H 4-2). Should he get past Nishikori, the QF looks like he will play the now world #1 Andy Murray (Federer leads H2H 14-11). If he somehow managed to win that, then the SF looks like #4 Wawrinka (Federer leads H2H 18-3). It's a challenge for Federer getting to the semifinal, and even with the lopsided H2H, Stan is no gimme now at the Australian Open. Federer has a 18-13 H2H advantage against Nishikori and Murray, but they are both in the top 5 and this is his first tournament in 6 months. Berdych was a good win for Federer, but Nishikori is at least a level or two above Berdych (if healthy), and Murray is of course top level. Federer's advantage with Murray in slams and since 2014 is good for him, but again, is he ready after the time off? It is a big question mark.

I like Murray's chances if Nishikori beats Federer, and Stan's chances if Federer beats Nishikori. It's tough to see Federer beating all 3 top 5 seeds in his first real tournament back.

For the final, Rafa and Stan are both former winners of the AO. Sir Andy remains without a title down under.
If it is Rafa vs. Stan, I would favor Stan slightly. If it is Nadal vs. Murray final, I think it is a toss up, maybe a tiny edge to Nadal. But in either case, I would want to reevaluate once the finalists are known.

Let us see what happens. Maybe some player(s) will break through and crash the "Big 4 or 5" party and my analysis.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Good post MC... Looking forward to the Fed/NIshikori match. Fed's road is loaded here on in... so one match at a time, but I fancy Fed's chances against Murray. Likewise, I fancy Nadal's chances against Murray too... as you alluded to in the post. Nadal has Zverev and potentially Raonic which are two huge matches.

I'm a big Zverev fan and think he has the tools to take it... but gun to head I still make Rafa a favourite in that match right now. We will see today!

 

[Tennis Fan]

I would have thought Nadal losing to Steve Darcis in the 2013 Wimbledon in the first round was the biggest upset. He was in his prime then.

There have been way too many upsets to rank which one was biggest. Nor do I care to at this point, but thanks for your input.

 

[Tennis Fan]

I'm sure we could fill 3-4 pages ranking the bigger upsets amongst the Big 3 in the last several years.

Without a doubt, only, what would be the purpose of that? Everyone would rate it differently. When there is no clear answer there is also no point in trying to figure it out.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Federer had an easy couple of rounds, but I don't think it's a cakewalk at all after that...

You're right. I saw the graphic after the match and there's some pretty tough guys up there.

 

[Tennis Fan]

I think that's precisely the point. Rafa's style of play has been much harder on his body, despite playing fewer matches. That is exactly the point. I'm amazed anyone would try to argue the point

I would! Rafa's injuries are connected to his congenital bone defect in his foot which affects his knees. And style of play is not a good indicator of why players get injuries. If that's the case and it's Rafa's "style of play" what explains Haas, Monfils, Tsonga and many other players that have been oft injured on the tour? Nadal is no more physical than any other player on tour from what I've seen over the years. I think the term "physical" as often repeated by the commentators stems from them comparing Rafa's game to Federer's game. That, to me, is the only reason that the analogy exists. Other than that the argument has never made sense to me. Also, who is more athletic than Novak? He stretches his body into unreal positions all the time and very few injuries. There doesn't seem to be a correlation between style of play and injuries, IMO.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Come on, I think we have talked about the "miles' too many times already and it's very known WHY Rafa started with the knee injury. he has a congenital malformation of one of his feet and when he was 16 years old that foot was broken and the doctors told him he couldn't play anymore but he did and very well though as you should know the feet are connected with the knees and that's why later he had so many problems. It has a logic and not like Roger getting the knee injury when he was giving a bath to his kids...you know why? because his knee was completely deteriorated because his "miles", and don't tell me that he doesn't need to run because he did and he does and a lot. And about the wrist the miles have nothing to do with that injury so don't start with the same silly discussion about the "style to play" because anyone can get injuries like many player go through. Look Novak, when he is playing I have the feeling that his body is going to divide in two pieces and also his ankles but until know he has not got any injury, good for him, maybe he yoga is helping him a lot . But look Delpo, Tsonga, Nishi and other players, it's part of the sport
And mrzz....I know your wish is that Zverev wins...ok, I have a very bad news for you, Berdych is useless and that's why I'm not surprised about that result but if Nishi is healthy it will be a different story, hey! and I don't have anything against Roger because I don't have any reason to do, I don't care if he wins or not, it doesn't affect to me at all

I just said the same thing, Carol. It is well documented about Rafa's congenital bone defect and I can't understand why those real life facts are constantly thrown out as if it doesn't exist. There are many often injured players and they all play different styles, so to just make blanket statements about Rafa and Rafa only and sweep Delpo, Tsonga, Nishikori, Haas, Monfils, and a plethora of others under the rug makes no sense at all to me. It's not logical reasoning, it's erroneous, and once new information emerges it is impractical to continue to ignore it.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Awesome display from Federer.

can't believe he played such clean attacking tennis this early in the year ?..

he said recently he was ready to play in early December..so I suppose he is coming in off a long run-up with that and then hopman cup 6 matches (borderline hit n giggle tho) and 2 early matches at ao.

fedsters 1st top 10 win in exactly 1year..also vs skeletor,

skeletor berdy couldn't believe it. he could be dropping out of top10 next week if goffin keeps going..v close at no10-11 rank.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Djokovic though eh ?. the wilander syndrome..loss of motivation.

(and his guru filling his head with clouds n flowers)

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

zed vs rafa ..who gets the feeling that zed will win ?. decent chance, esp with the match in the afternoon and with rafa playing till midnight in rd 2. that's around 40hrs turnaround

age 30 v age 19. its the generation game.

 

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zed vs rafa ..who gets the feeling that zed will win ?. decent chance, esp with the match in the afternoon and with rafa playing till midnight in rd 2. that's around 40hrs turnaround

age 30 v age 19. its the generation game.

Huge match... can't wait.

 

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zed vs rafa ..who gets the feeling that zed will win ?. decent chance, esp with the match in the afternoon and with rafa playing till midnight in rd 2. that's around 40hrs turnaround

age 30 v age 19. its the generation game.

First set to Zed. Rafa up a break in the second. Only just started watching.

 

[mrzz]

Match is getting uglier and uglier. Maybe it is your fault, BB. As I write finally a decent point.

 

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Haha.

Set point Rafa

 

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3 good well worked points for a big hold though.

Really pumelling Rafa's backhand.

 

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Quality is ramping up now @mrzz.

1 set each.