AUSTRALIAN OPEN, Melbourne, ATP GRAND SLAM

Carol

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Carol, people can judge things objectively, or at least get close to it. For example, I also think that Federer will lose to Berdych. I hope not, I will root for a Federer win, but I think it is unlikely. I could give a long answer, but unfortunately right now it is impossible.

Oh, and thanks for the video. Fantastic match, that AUS Open final. Classic rallies there.

Agreed, we have to judge things objectively independently who is our fav and that's why I think that every player has a different situation. For example Roger has been many months out of the court and I understand that at 35 years old is more difficult to return and to do his best though I wouldn't be surprised if he would beat Berdych. Rafa this time has not been so long out of the court like the previous injuries and as more than you think that he has the same age as Roger (miles) I can't be more disagree, 5 years apart is a big difference and remember that after has been so many times without paying he has missed many tournaments so his body is not too overburdened like others which have played many more tournaments than him and if he is now healthy even better and that's why I think he can do well it doesn't matter his bad last two years results. And I don't say that he is going to win this AO but neither he would go out soon
 
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Vince Evert

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Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray were and still are extremely great champions and i don't think we will never see a rivalry quite like theirs again. Should Roger, Nadal and Murray also get eliminated before the final, it could well mean the changing of the guard. All three are vulnerable, I reckon. This is the time for the young guns to be stepping up.
 

Vince Evert

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So we got Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitriv, Alexander Zverev and Denis Istomin coming through. Of the four, Milos is the player with the best shot of winning the whole thing, but you just never know from one match to the next if he will bring his "A" game.
 

Carol

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So we got Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitriv, Alexander Zverev and Denis Istomin coming through. Of the four, Milos is the player with the best shot of winning the whole thing, but you just never know from one match to the next if he will bring his "A" game.
According to Raonic he has some fever (flu) but as we can see he still is playing well
 

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I think we need a thread with a poll on recent upsets. I still think Soderling d. Nadal at RG was bigger. But you were right to walk away and think: "pffft." We all did. Including, I think, Djokovic. I do believe one of his faults is getting ahead of himself, or taking his opponent a bit for granted. He was waiting for Istomin to burn out. His first serve pct. was not great, and he was playing a bit passively. I think he was buying what we all did: that Istomin couldn't play lights-out for that long. I rather believe he thought the same about Wawrinka at RG in 2015. For sure, Novak was sub-par today, but I also think he underestimated Istomin.

I think so too, Moxie. Novak didn't up his intensity, because what were the odds that Istomin, of all people would be in it for the long haul? The fans didn't think so and neither did Novak. Shock loss, but it happens.
 

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Agreed, we have to judge things objectively independently who is our fav and that's why I think that every player has a different situation. For example Roger has been many months out of the court and I understand that at 35 years old is more difficult to return and to do his best though I wouldn't be surprised if he would beat Berdych. Rafa this time has not been so long out of the court like the previous injuries and as more than you think that he has the same age as Roger (miles) I can't be more disagree, 5 years apart is a big difference and remember that after has been so many times without paying he has missed many tournaments so his body is not too overburdened like others which have played many more tournaments than him and if he is now healthy even better and that's why I think he can do well it doesn't matter his bad last two years results. And I don't say that he is going to win this AO but neither he would go out soon

Great post, and objective too.

Not a fan of Novak, but I hate to see him go out so early in this tournament, mostly because he's going to lose so many points and it's a devastating loss and it lends credence to the yucky and biased commentators. Novak did an excellent job congratulating Istomin and hiding his disappointment in the press room. That had to be extremely difficult.

I hope Nadal can capitalize but agree that Zverev will be a tough draw. Again, Nadal gets a crappy draw, not that I'm surprised after watching him for over a decade. I wish the politics would stop, and no I don't believe in hundreds of "coincidences" in a row. It would also be great for him to be the first to complete the double career slam.

Milos? I don't see him as doing as well as others seem to. He's okay, good work ethic, great serve, and getting better at volleying, but if anyone can handle the serve I can't see him anywhere near winning. Too hot and cold for my taste.

Federer is not playing well, but he could be playing his way into better form, at this point he's not showing that much. Plus, he got a cakewalk draw to the final. I see no immediate threats there on the path to the final. By the time he would get to the latter stages his path will have been paved with easy wins.

Andy, I don't know. His carrying the mantle is new to him and now that Novak is gone the mantle may have gotten heavier. I would love to see him win an Australian trophy but the pressure has just intensified with Novak's exit. That's a tough call.

Wawrinka? Who knows with him? Berdych and the others fit into this category as well.

I hope Nadal wins, simply because he's Nadal, but his path is strewn with landmines, and he's older now, so who knows? Anyway, it's good to see him back and engaged.
 
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Moxie

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I think everyone is in agreement that Zverev is a dangerous next opponent for Rafa, and I'd also say more so than Raonic. Tall, big serve, big hitter, and, at 19, he's got the fearlessness of youth. Plus, everyone says he's ambitious. He'll be looking across the net thinking, "You won a Major at 19...why not me?" But Nadal is playing better and more confidently than at IW last year, and I don't know why Zverev had to go 5 v. Haase, but that gives some hope, too. The downside to youth is inexperience, so there's that.
 
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I think everyone is in agreement that Zverev is a dangerous next opponent for Rafa, and I'd also say more so than Raonic. Tall, big serve, big hitter, and, at 19, he's got the fearlessness of youth. Plus, everyone says he's ambitious. He'll be looking across the net thinking, "You won a Major at 19...why not me?" But Nadal is playing better and more confidently than at IW last year, and I don't know why Zverev had to go 5 v. Haase, but that gives some hope, too. The downside to youth is inexperience, so there's that.

For sure. I feel the same way about Zverev and Raonic, the bloom of youth and all that.
 
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britbox

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Great post, and objective too.

Not a fan of Novak, but I hate to see him go out so early in this tournament, mostly because he's going to lose so many points and it's a devastating loss and it lends credence to the yucky and biased commentators. Novak did an excellent job congratulating Istomin and hiding his disappointment in the press room. That had to be extremely difficult.

I hope Nadal can capitalize but agree that Zverev will be a tough draw. Again, Nadal gets a crappy draw, not that I'm surprised after watching him for over a decade. I wish the politics would stop, and no I don't believe in hundreds of "coincidences" in a row. It would also be great for him to be the first to complete the double career slam.

Milos? I don't see him as doing as well as others seem to. He's okay, good work ethic, great serve, and getting better at volleying, but if anyone can handle the serve I can't see him anywhere near winning. Too hot and cold for my taste.

Federer is not playing well, but he could be playing his way into better form, at this point he's not showing that much. Plus, he got a cakewalk draw to the final. I see no immediate threats there on the path to the final. By the time he would get to the latter stages his path will have been paved with easy wins.

Andy, I don't know. His carrying the mantle is new to him and now that Novak is gone the mantle may have gotten heavier. I would love to see him win an Australian trophy but the pressure has just intensified with Novak's exit. That's a tough call.

Wawrinka? Who knows with him? Berdych and the others fit into this category as well.

I hope Nadal wins, simply because he's Nadal, but his path is strewn with landmines, and he's older now, so who knows? Anyway, it's good to see him back and engaged.

Federer had an easy couple of rounds, but I don't think it's a cakewalk at all after that...
 

Moxie

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Federer had an easy couple of rounds, but I don't think it's a cakewalk at all after that...
Given that he's been off for 6 months, and he's 35, ranked 17, I don't know what cakewalk he might have gotten. Tsonga or Sock this round? I'd argue that either is more on-form than Berdych, who recently had his appendix out. And dropped a set at love to Rafa a couple of weeks ago. Yes, he might lose to Berdych. But he's not the worst option, given their h2h. And Nishikori, with a bad back. He's better off with him than Raonic. At this ranking, he was always going to have to go through some tricky players to get to the QF, SF. Of the options, I don't think these are the worst, especially in their current state. However, what once looked like luck has proven not to be...Roger is on Murray's side, while Djokovic is out. So he'll likely still have to go through Murray, while someone on the bottom half won't have to go through Novak.
 

Moxie

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Sock v. Tsonga is quite the battle, and Sock just closed the 3rd to keep his hope alive.
 

Moxie

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Creditable Sock but very good Tsonga. He's got a solid chance of getting out of this quarter. Wawrinka nearly past Troicki.
 

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Federer had an easy couple of rounds, but I don't think it's a cakewalk at all after that...

Nothing is a cakewalk, per se, but he had to like his draw for a 17 seed. Whoever hands gets around the trophy deserves it.
 

Vince Evert

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Fascinating battle in progress with Dan Evans taking on Bernard Tomic. Evans leads 7-6,7-6. Evans should have won the second set easier when he served for it a 5-4 and two set points but choked like a dog doing so and let Tomic back in, but Bernard just was not competitive enough in the second set tiebreak.
 
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Vince Evert

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I think so too, Moxie. Novak didn't up his intensity, because what were the odds that Istomin, of all people would be in it for the long haul? The fans didn't think so and neither did Novak. Shock loss, but it happens.
I would have thought Nadal losing to Steve Darcis in the 2013 Wimbledon in the first round was the biggest upset. He was in his prime then.
 

Moxie

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I would have thought Nadal losing to Steve Darcis in the 2013 Wimbledon in the first round was the biggest upset. He was in his prime then.
I'm sure we could fill 3-4 pages ranking the bigger upsets amongst the Big 3 in the last several years.
 
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Vince Evert

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I'm sure we could fill 3-4 pages ranking the bigger upsets amongst the Big 3 in the last several years.
Yes. It would make a great topic and plenty of vid's on YouTube to back up these posts.
 
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Vince Evert

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Back to Tomic vs Evans, currently it's 4-4 in the third. Will Evans tighten up again? If he does I can see Bernard getting back into the match.
 

Vince Evert

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Real titanic game that ninth game. Evans fought off three break points great rallies and shot making and held. He also look like his cramping.