Australian Open Day 6: Saturday, Jan 18 - Order of Play

[rafanoy1992]

Getting a little bit more nervous about Rafa's match. Dearly wish it was a round or two later. As it is he has only played 4 sets of tennis, and Monfils looks motivated. If Rafa starts slowly and has a bad returning day, it could get very difficult.

As always with Rafa nowadays, the key is the second set. The last time Rafa lost a match when he won the second set was against Verdasco in Madrid 2012 (blue clay). Before that we have to go to Tsonga at WTF 2011 and Roger at WTF 2010.

Those are some nice statistics, but Rafa generally doesn't lose many matches so I don't think it can be pinned down to a particular set. I also really doubt that Monfils is motivated. He might be motivated to entertain the crowd, yes, but I don't know about whether he is motivated to win.

Rafa lost 15 matches in 2011, 6 in 2012 and 7 in 2013. So out of a total of 28 lost matches, he won the second set in just two of them (and one was on blue clay).

I think you can be justified in saying that its almost impossible to beat Rafa unless you win the second set. Obviously there will be exceptions every now and then.

Isn't the first set an even bigger indicator then? Nadal has only ever lost 2 Grand Slam matches after winning the first set. Against Ferrer at the US Open in 2007, and against Novak in the 2012 AO final.

Broken, Nadal has lost three Grand Slam matches after winning the first set: 2007 US Open to Ferrer, 2012 AO Final to Djokovic, and finally to Lukas Rosol in their 2012 2nd round Wimbledon match.

Overall, Nadal is 153-3 in Grand Slam matches when winning the first set. It shows you how difficult it is to beat Nadal once he wins the first set.

 

[Denis]

Getting a little bit more nervous about Rafa's match. Dearly wish it was a round or two later. As it is he has only played 4 sets of tennis, and Monfils looks motivated. If Rafa starts slowly and has a bad returning day, it could get very difficult.

As always with Rafa nowadays, the key is the second set. The last time Rafa lost a match when he won the second set was against Verdasco in Madrid 2012 (blue clay). Before that we have to go to Tsonga at WTF 2011 and Roger at WTF 2010.

Those are some nice statistics, but Rafa generally doesn't lose many matches so I don't think it can be pinned down to a particular set. I also really doubt that Monfils is motivated. He might be motivated to entertain the crowd, yes, but I don't know about whether he is motivated to win.

Rafa lost 15 matches in 2011, 6 in 2012 and 7 in 2013. So out of a total of 28 lost matches, he won the second set in just two of them (and one was on blue clay).

I think you can be justified in saying that its almost impossible to beat Rafa unless you win the second set. Obviously there will be exceptions every now and then.

Isn't the first set an even bigger indicator then? Nadal has only ever lost 2 Grand Slam matches after winning the first set. Against Ferrer at the US Open in 2007, and against Novak in the 2012 AO final.

It pains me to do it, but I have to add Wimbledon 2012 R2 to your list.

Undoubtedly the first set is a massive indicator with Rafa in slams, and it probably outranks the second set trend present in the last few years. I put as much store in the recent second set trend as it includes all matches, not just slams.

Good stuff. If Rafa can win one of the first two sets tomorrow I will feel a lot more secure :clap

If Monfils wins the first and the second set, I think we will be presented with the statistical anomaly of Nadal winning despite losing the first two sets.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Getting a little bit more nervous about Rafa's match. Dearly wish it was a round or two later. As it is he has only played 4 sets of tennis, and Monfils looks motivated. If Rafa starts slowly and has a bad returning day, it could get very difficult.

As always with Rafa nowadays, the key is the second set. The last time Rafa lost a match when he won the second set was against Verdasco in Madrid 2012 (blue clay). Before that we have to go to Tsonga at WTF 2011 and Roger at WTF 2010.

Those are some nice statistics, but Rafa generally doesn't lose many matches so I don't think it can be pinned down to a particular set. I also really doubt that Monfils is motivated. He might be motivated to entertain the crowd, yes, but I don't know about whether he is motivated to win.

Rafa lost 15 matches in 2011, 6 in 2012 and 7 in 2013. So out of a total of 28 lost matches, he won the second set in just two of them (and one was on blue clay).

I think you can be justified in saying that its almost impossible to beat Rafa unless you win the second set. Obviously there will be exceptions every now and then.

Isn't the first set an even bigger indicator then? Nadal has only ever lost 2 Grand Slam matches after winning the first set. Against Ferrer at the US Open in 2007, and against Novak in the 2012 AO final.

Broken, Nadal has lost three Grand Slam matches after winning the first set: 2007 US Open to Ferrer, 2012 AO Final to Djokovic, and finally to Lukas Rosol in their 2012 2nd round Wimbledon match.

Overall, Nadal is 153-3 in Grand Slam matches when winning the first set. It shows you how difficult it is to beat Nadal once he wins the first set.

Ah true. I tend to block the Rosol match out of my memory.

 

[britbox]

A few need to be a bit more pragmatic about Federer and also judge some of the other players in the field by the same lofty standards by which they hold Federer to account.

Roger's vulnerable? Certainly. He's past his best, coming out of the worst year of his career in memory, trying out a new racquet and has made coaching changes.

What are his chances of winning the AO? Pretty slim.

Trust me when I say Tsonga's are even slimmer.

What are you trying to say here? Tsonga will lose to Federer if they meet?

I'm saying it's far from the foregone conclusion that is being bandied around on this thread.

Tsonga had to go through Simon first - that's not a foregone conclusion either - although I do expect him to prevail.

I'll ask you to take the names out of the equation Denis and look at the facts, because it's distorting things a little.

Player 1 finished last year at #6
Player 2 finished last year at #10

Both players shared a 1-1 H2H last year.
Player 1 beat Player 2 at the same tournament last year.

As you can see, I'm not bringing anything "historic" into this like the overall H2H, slam titles etc... just looking at it without glasses on over the last 12 months.

On what basis, is Player 2 a dead cert to win this match?

 

[britbox]

...and yeah, if I had to bet my house on it, I'd still lean to Federer progressing further than Tsonga in the tournament.

 

[Denis]

A few need to be a bit more pragmatic about Federer and also judge some of the other players in the field by the same lofty standards by which they hold Federer to account.

Roger's vulnerable? Certainly. He's past his best, coming out of the worst year of his career in memory, trying out a new racquet and has made coaching changes.

What are his chances of winning the AO? Pretty slim.

Trust me when I say Tsonga's are even slimmer.

What are you trying to say here? Tsonga will lose to Federer if they meet?

I'm saying it's far from the foregone conclusion that is being bandied around on this thread.

Tsonga had to go through Simon first - that's not a foregone conclusion either - although I do expect him to prevail.

I'll ask you to take the names out of the equation Denis and look at the facts, because it's distorting things a little.

Player 1 finished last year at #6
Player 2 finished last year at #10

Both players shared a 1-1 H2H last year.
Player 1 beat Player 2 at the same tournament last year.

As you can see, I'm not bringing anything "historic" into this like the overall H2H, slam titles etc... just looking at it without glasses on over the last 12 months.

On what basis, is Player 2 a dead cert to win this match?

His serve.

Tsonga was injured for a big part of last year.

 

[britbox]

PM'ed you.

 

[sid]

I know one thing over the years Tsonga does not do so bad @ the AO.If Jo & Roger play could be a great match up.

 

[Denis]

I know one thing over the years Tsonga does not do so bad @ the AO.If Jo & Roger play could be a great match up.

Yeah I agree, it would definitely be the most interesting 4th round if it happens.

Btw, I don't think its a certain that Tsonga will win, but at this point I do favour him over the Fedster.

 

[rafanoy1992]

In my opinion, the potential Federer vs Tsonga 4th round encounter could go either way. It's just matter of who shows up in that match. One thing for sure, both players can't afford to play in a grueling match or they might not have enough energy to play in the Quarters.

 

[brokenshoelace]

A few need to be a bit more pragmatic about Federer and also judge some of the other players in the field by the same lofty standards by which they hold Federer to account.

Roger's vulnerable? Certainly. He's past his best, coming out of the worst year of his career in memory, trying out a new racquet and has made coaching changes.

What are his chances of winning the AO? Pretty slim.

Trust me when I say Tsonga's are even slimmer.

What are you trying to say here? Tsonga will lose to Federer if they meet?

I'm saying it's far from the foregone conclusion that is being bandied around on this thread.

Tsonga had to go through Simon first - that's not a foregone conclusion either - although I do expect him to prevail.

I'll ask you to take the names out of the equation Denis and look at the facts, because it's distorting things a little.

Player 1 finished last year at #6
Player 2 finished last year at #10

Both players shared a 1-1 H2H last year.
Player 1 beat Player 2 at the same tournament last year.

As you can see, I'm not bringing anything "historic" into this like the overall H2H, slam titles etc... just looking at it without glasses on over the last 12 months.

On what basis, is Player 2 a dead cert to win this match?

His serve.

Tsonga was injured for a big part of last year.

So was Federer...

 

[sid]

I know one thing over the years Tsonga does not do so bad @ the AO.If Jo & Roger play could be a great match up.

Yeah I agree, it would definitely be the most interesting 4th round if it happens.

Btw, I don't think its a certain that Tsonga will win, but at this point I do favour him over the Fedster.

I would not like to call who wins,i've just gone for Fed in my picks v other boards.Here is jo in Slams.
http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/players/overview/atpt786.html

Guys does anyone else on TF go in this v other tennis forums?
http://t3nnisstats.webs.com/

 

[Denis]

A few need to be a bit more pragmatic about Federer and also judge some of the other players in the field by the same lofty standards by which they hold Federer to account.

Roger's vulnerable? Certainly. He's past his best, coming out of the worst year of his career in memory, trying out a new racquet and has made coaching changes.

What are his chances of winning the AO? Pretty slim.

Trust me when I say Tsonga's are even slimmer.

What are you trying to say here? Tsonga will lose to Federer if they meet?

I'm saying it's far from the foregone conclusion that is being bandied around on this thread.

Tsonga had to go through Simon first - that's not a foregone conclusion either - although I do expect him to prevail.

I'll ask you to take the names out of the equation Denis and look at the facts, because it's distorting things a little.

Player 1 finished last year at #6
Player 2 finished last year at #10

Both players shared a 1-1 H2H last year.
Player 1 beat Player 2 at the same tournament last year.

As you can see, I'm not bringing anything "historic" into this like the overall H2H, slam titles etc... just looking at it without glasses on over the last 12 months.

On what basis, is Player 2 a dead cert to win this match?

His serve.

Tsonga was injured for a big part of last year.

So was Federer...

He didn't miss much though. Tsonga didnt play the US Open swing and Asia swing.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Other than the Nadal-Monfils match, I think the most interesting match of the day for is the Raonic vs. Dimitrov match. Now that Delpo is out, it will be interesting to see if these players would take advantage of it and reach their first ever Major Quarters. I did say whomever wins this match will reach the Quarterfinals.

I pick Raonic as my Dark horse in this tournament, but I'm kinda want to see a potential Nadal vs. Dimitrov quarterfinal match.

 

[sid]

What do you folks think of Stan getting a walkover I bet Nole does not like this.

 

[Denis]

What do you folks think of Stan getting a walkover I bet Nole does not like this.

I don't think Nole cares too much. One match at a time. And Stan might get taken out by Robredo unfortunately. Terrible h2h.

 

[britbox]

What are you trying to say here? Tsonga will lose to Federer if they meet?

I'm saying it's far from the foregone conclusion that is being bandied around on this thread.

Tsonga had to go through Simon first - that's not a foregone conclusion either - although I do expect him to prevail.

I'll ask you to take the names out of the equation Denis and look at the facts, because it's distorting things a little.

Player 1 finished last year at #6
Player 2 finished last year at #10

Both players shared a 1-1 H2H last year.
Player 1 beat Player 2 at the same tournament last year.

As you can see, I'm not bringing anything "historic" into this like the overall H2H, slam titles etc... just looking at it without glasses on over the last 12 months.

On what basis, is Player 2 a dead cert to win this match?

His serve.

Tsonga was injured for a big part of last year.

So was Federer...

He didn't miss much though. Tsonga didnt play the US Open swing and Asia swing.

They both played 17 tournaments each according to the ATP site and Tsonga played Davis Cup on top of that.

 

[britbox]

I know one thing over the years Tsonga does not do so bad @ the AO.If Jo & Roger play could be a great match up.

Yeah I agree, it would definitely be the most interesting 4th round if it happens.

Btw, I don't think its a certain that Tsonga will win, but at this point I do favour him over the Fedster.

I would not like to call who wins,i've just gone for Fed in my picks v other boards.Here is jo in Slams.
http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/players/overview/atpt786.html

Guys does anyone else on TF go in this v other tennis forums?
http://t3nnisstats.webs.com/

Hi Sid, Not seen that site before but added to favourites.

I go on a couple of other tennis forums but sporadically. This one is the best

 

[Denis]

I'm saying it's far from the foregone conclusion that is being bandied around on this thread.

Tsonga had to go through Simon first - that's not a foregone conclusion either - although I do expect him to prevail.

I'll ask you to take the names out of the equation Denis and look at the facts, because it's distorting things a little.

Player 1 finished last year at #6
Player 2 finished last year at #10

Both players shared a 1-1 H2H last year.
Player 1 beat Player 2 at the same tournament last year.

As you can see, I'm not bringing anything "historic" into this like the overall H2H, slam titles etc... just looking at it without glasses on over the last 12 months.

On what basis, is Player 2 a dead cert to win this match?

His serve.

Tsonga was injured for a big part of last year.

So was Federer...

He didn't miss much though. Tsonga didnt play the US Open swing and Asia swing.

They both played 17 tournaments each according to the ATP site and Tsonga played Davis Cup on top of that.

Oh boy, this is endless. But we're getting somewhere. A lot of the tourney's Jo played were 250 events. He did not play the US Open, Canada, and Cincinnati. You can generally get more points there. This is not bad scheduling, he was just injured. Fed took a break at a time where there were not much points on the line.

Anyway, thanks for clarifying that you were actually talking about their chances h2h. I like Jo's, you like Feds. It's cooling down now, so that will help the Fedster in having some more time to return the ball, but I think he'll have difficulty with Jo's serve. And I am sure Federer will be so kind to shank away a couple of serve games, to enable Jo-Willie to take three sets.

 

[sid]

What do you folks think of Stan getting a walkover I bet Nole does not like this.

I don't think Nole cares too much. One match at a time. And Stan might get taken out by Robredo unfortunately. Terrible h2h.

If Stan is on with his backhand no-one will want to face him.Tommy just had 4 hard sets,i think Stan will take Robredo out in 3 or 4 sets.