ATP World Tour Finals

[monfed]

Tomorrow, Federer plays second. Thiem vs. Nishi is the first match. So, when he goes on the court, Fed will know exactly what he needs to do to qualify.

Fed got the easier group and now has this so no excuse for him to not make the SF. I swear Fed's performance at the WTF and USO in past couple of years have been totally pathetic.

 

[Denis]

The problem with the 4-5 more RGs for Rafa prediction is that it both assumes a steady state of performance level from him and that no one will rise to the challenge. First of all, he'll turn 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37 at the end of the next five RGs. Do we think he'll maintain the same level we've seen in 2017-18, at age 31-32? And that he'll just happen to be healthy for all five? Secondly, Novak has resurged and while a healthy Rafa would still have the edge at RG, it isn't by much and is not a foregone conclusion that he'll beat this version of Novak - which is pretty damn good.

And then you've got the young guys. Hard to imagine Thiem or Zverev beating Rafa at RG, but what about in a few years when Zverev is 24-25 and Rafa 35-36? Or what about Tsitsipas?

Even if we assume that Rafa plays five more RGs, I think we have to give at least one of the next few to Novak, and one or two to young guys. And this doesn't even touch upon possible injury for Rafa. That makes Rafa's range more like 1-3, and I personally think 3 is too optimistic; 1-2 is more likely, imo.

I see your point on it not being obvious that Rafa will take 4-5, but Novak barely beat Rafa at Wimbledon this year. I don’t see Novak beating Rafa any time soon at RG, we would need to see a significant drop in level. There is just nobody out there at the moment. We can revisit the issue when things change.

 

[DarthFed]

I see your point on it not being obvious that Rafa will take 4-5, but Novak barely beat Rafa at Wimbledon this year. I don’t see Novak beating Rafa any time soon at RG, we would need to see a significant drop in level. There is just nobody out there at the moment. We can revisit the issue when things change.

The Novak at Wimbledon this year is far weaker than the one we are seeing now. This one looks "back". At Wimbledon Novak wasn't near a great level after the first set. Rafa let him off the hook. I was calling him "80% Nole" and even that felt generous. Anyways RG is a long time away. The landscape of the game could change a lot by then.

 

[atttomole]

The big man gets broken.

 

[herios]

The Novak at Wimbledon this year is far weaker than the one we are seeing now. This one looks "back". At Wimbledon Novak wasn't near a great level after the first set. Rafa let him off the hook. I was calling him "80% Nole" and even that felt generous. Anyways RG is a long time away. The landscape of the game could change a lot by then.

Rafa did fail to win 2 years in a row RG, in 2015 and 2016. It could happen.

 

[atttomole]

Cilic breaks Isner in the first game of the third set, and then returns the favor in the next game.

 

[herios]

I think the same about Thiem. I just can't hop on the bandwagon even on clay where he is very good but not great. I feel like the last couple of years have been misleading. Sure he has been the 2nd best on clay but that was with Novak, Stan, and Murray struggling with injuries and Roger no longer playing on clay. It's like the guy was set up to be the 5th or 6th best clay courter but got bumped up to #2. I think the other youngsters will catch up to him on clay before he is able to win one.

I am in the same boat with Thiem. If he was the best after Nadal on clay then why he's got Zero titles on bigger events on clay, while Sasha has won two masters on clay already?

 

[Fiero425]

I am in the same boat with Thiem. If he was the best after Nadal thon clayen why he's got Zero titles on bigger events on clay, while Sasha has won two masters on clay already?

Love Thiem's game for the most part, but he has the same troubles as a player like Dimitrov; simply overplaying shots when the court is wide open! It's so unnecessary all that stroke production at times! He obviously has talent or he wouldn't have pushed Rafa to the limit at the USO contributing to an eventual WD against Del Po! :whistle: :cuckoo:

 

[El Dude]

The Novak at Wimbledon this year is far weaker than the one we are seeing now. This one looks "back". At Wimbledon Novak wasn't near a great level after the first set. Rafa let him off the hook. I was calling him "80% Nole" and even that felt generous. Anyways RG is a long time away. The landscape of the game could change a lot by then.

Yes, this. So much of the game is confidence and momentum, so in a way Rafa let Novak back in. He was wobbly at Wimbledon but pulled it off. Now he looks like he's as close to his peak level as we can expect - maybe not 2011/15, but certainly 2012-14 Novak.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am in the same boat with Thiem. If he was the best after Nadal thon clayen why he's got Zero titles on bigger events on clay, while Sasha has won two masters on clay already?

While not a general believer in Thiem, I am a believer in Thiem on mud. Yes, Sasha got the big titles. But, Sasha never beat the man to beat on Clay. It was Thiem who did the hard work of beating Ralph and then before he could come off the high of doing that, he got beaten. Thiem reached the finals of RG while I think Sasha has not yet reached the SF in RG (make that in any GS).

I think Thiem can safely clean up a spot in his trophy cabinet for a Coupe des Mousquetaires.

 

[herios]

Yes, this. So much of the game is confidence and momentum, so in a way Rafa let Novak back in. He was wobbly at Wimbledon but pulled it off. Now he looks like he's as close to his peak level as we can expect - maybe not 2011/15, but certainly 2012-14 Novak.

I so hope so. I am not obsessed about his GS total to not be as high as Roger or Nadal, but I want him to have 2 GS of each at the minimum, so he has a different record than them.
So you got it, I hope he wins a second RG before he retires.

 

[El Dude]

I agree that Thiem is "very good but not great" on clay. But who is clearly better? Rafa and Novak, maybe Zverev.

Current Clay Elo Rankings according to Tennis Abstract (Elo are weighted towards ranking of opponent):
1. Rafa 2152
2. Zverev 2085
3. Thiem 2062
4. Djokovic 2057
5. Nishikori 1978

Novak can be safely bumped up to #2, but Thiem is still 4th - and a good distance ahead of Kei. So essentially right now we have a "Big Four on Clay" - or rather, King of Clay plus three Dukes (or maybe Novak is the Archduke).

 

[herios]

While not a general believer in Thiem, I am a believer in Thiem on mud. Yes, Sasha got the big titles. But, Sasha never beat the man to beat on Clay. It was Thiem who did the hard work of beating Ralph and then before he could come off the high of doing that, he got beaten. Thiem reached the finals of RG while I think Sasha has not yet reached the SF in RG (make that in any GS).

I think Thiem can safely clean up a spot in his trophy cabinet for a Coupe des Mousquetaires.

I doubt it. Thiem is 4 years older than Zverev, compare his results in slam with the 21 year old Thiem, not the current version

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I so hope so. I am not obsessed about his GS total to not be as high as Roger or Nadal, but I want him to have 2 GS of each at the minimum, so he has a different record than them.
So you got it, I hope he wins a second RG before he retires.

He will get the record that you are talking about (double career slam).

But, he already has few records which neither Rog nor Ralph have.

a. He has Nole Slam.
b. He has career Golden Masters.
c. Most bounces before serve.

 

[Fiero425]

I so hope so. I am not obsessed about his GS total to not be as high as Roger or Nadal, but I want him to have 2 GS of each at the minimum, so he has a different record than them.
So you got it, I hope he wins a second RG before he retires.

Novak already has a record unmatched by either Fedal; owns all 14 major events of the ATP calendar! Add on his winning record H2H, he far and away has something neither will get in the future with his NOLE-Slam! All Djokovic needs is one more Cincy and FO title to be immortalized regardless of how far he's away from Roger's Major #'s! :whistle:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I doubt it. Thiem is 4 years older than Zverev, compare his results in slam with the 21 year old Thiem, not the current version

I am not saying that Thiem will have a greater carrer achievements than Sasha. All that I am saying is Thiem will garner at least RG.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed got the easier group and now has this so no excuse for him to not make the SF. I swear Fed's performance at the WTF and USO in past couple of years have been totally pathetic.

Last year's WTF was the worst. There was nobody around (No Nole, No Ralph, No Murray, No Stan). Fed reached the SF and the only opponents left were few players whom he had owned such as Grigor and Goffin. Yet, he managed to come home without the trophy.
This is almost like Fed anti-vulturing (or the common phrase of "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory").

The only way Fed can top that this year is by not reaching SF.

 

[herios]

I am not saying that Thiem will have a greater carrer achievements than Sasha. All that I am saying is Thiem will garner at least RG.

Assuming that the next 3 RG will go to either Rafa or reborn Novak, that will hamper Dominic's chances.
In 3 areas the scene will be vastly populated by the current youngsters and many will improve a lot.
Thiem could be caught and surpassed.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Assuming that the next 3 RG will go to either Rafa or reborn Novak, that will hamper Dominic's chances.
In 3 areas the scene will be vastly populated by the current youngsters and many will jmpimpr a lot.
Thiem could be caught and surpassed.

Yes, Thiem needs to get one fast before others surpass him. But, I would give him a larger window.

Also, I doubt that Thiem can beat both Rafa and Novak and win RG. He would need an assist from somebody to remove at least one of them (at least in the next couple of years).

 

[El Dude]

Thiem is really a member of the LostGen, born in September of 1993. I know my year ranges aren't official and also rather artificial, but I see Lost Gen as those players born 1989-93, with NextGen 1994-98 (this would technically fold Shapo and the Little Minotaur in with kids like Aliassime and Draper). In other words, after Cilic/del Potro (both Sept, 1988) and before Pouille (b 1994), although in a way 1994-95 are more transitional, with 96+ being the heart of NextGen. Lost Gen being: Nishikori, Raonic, Goffin, Dimitrov, Tomic, Sock, Thiem, etc.

In that sense, like the others Thiem is in danger of being skipped over by younger and more talented players. Rafa's resurgence in 2017 probably diminished his chances of a Slam more than any other player. But he is only 25 and has a solid 5+ years of peak level, maybe more given today's context. He may have a chance to sneak one in.