2024 Roland Garros Final: Alcaraz vs Zverev

[Moxie]

On paper, Alcaraz is the superior player and I'd expect him to win. But it also kind of seems like Zverev's moment, which evens the odds a bit. But Sascha will have to play a near-perfect match.

Zverev has been rounding into form this clay season, and getting back to where he was when he got injured. And if there's any poetry to history, he started the tournament playing Nadal, where he was when he got injured. It was a bad draw for Rafa, and a bad draw for Sascha, as well. Turns out Rafa wasn't as close to back as some of us had hoped, but Zverev didn't know that, either, so he had to start the tournament at 80mph.

I do agree that Alcaraz is the superior player, but he's still the "greener" one, and his nerves can get to him. Zverev will also feel the weight of opportunity. He'll need to have a near perfect serving day, and do the best he can to smother Alcaraz early. Press him into over-playing. Because, as we saw with Sinner the other day, and with Novak, at Wimbledon...once he starts feeling it, and flowing, he's amazing when he gets into high gear. And he's going to fight hard for it. He has a much more varied arsenal than Zverev. Sascha will need to be inspired. He did play one of the best matches I've seen him play recently, and I can't remember if it was in Rome or Paris. But he'll have to play like that. And hope that Alcaraz is not "on."

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I feel if needed Alcaraz has another gear to go to if in trouble,, I think we all saw that in his match against Sinner, agree he is the superior player,we shall see if Zverev can play a near perfect match to beat Alcaraz, Zverev played an ugly QF match against De Minaur where his UFE were high, and in his SF match played a visibly ill player in Ruud.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I assume that's Front and myself have picked Zverev to win ( again not saying we both want him to win its just our opinion) .. Hmmm wonder who @kskate2 Keli is gonna predict to win the final

 

[Moxie]

I feel if needed Alcaraz has another gear to go to if in trouble,, I think we all saw that in his match against Sinner, agree he is the superior player,we shall see if Zverev can play a near perfect match to beat Alcaraz, Zverev played an ugly QF match against De Minaur where his UFE were high, and in his SF match played a visibly ill player in Ruud.

De Minaur is no Alcaraz, but he's tricky, which can flummox Zverev. Alcaraz is not unlike De Minaur, in terms of speed and court coverage, and mixing his shots, but with big weapons, to make a simplistic comparison, since you mentioned that match. Tomorrow is the final of the French Open. I absolutely want Charly to be in his top gear. Don't leave it in the locker room. I want fireworks on full display. But I do want him to be patient about them.

 

[Moxie]

I assume that's Front and myself have picked Zverev to win ( again not saying we both want him to win its just our opinion) .. Hmmm wonder who @kskate2 Keli is gonna predict to win the final

I only see one vote for Zverev. To win in 5. Is that you? I see 4 votes for Alcaraz in 4, and 1 for Alcaraz in 5. I think you're right that Front is picking Zverev, even if he didn't vote. I don't know if K voted, but she seemed to have tipped her hand, above.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

De Minaur is no Alcaraz, but he's tricky, which can flummox Zverev. Alcaraz is not unlike De Minaur, in terms of speed and court coverage, and mixing his shots, but with big weapons, to make a simplistic comparison, since you mentioned that match. Tomorrow is the final of the French Open. I absolutely want Charly to be in his top gear. Don't leave it in the locker room. I want fireworks on full display. But I do want him to be patient about them.

On clay you have to keep your UFE low, a player having UFE in the high 20's? and his winners were low,it was an ugly match.,even though Zverev won, partly because has has a superior serve than Alex, if he was playing a stronger player on clay it might not have gone his way.
When you are playing a 5 set match on clay, you have to be measured in your energy for starters especially if it does go 5 sets, thats when a player, like Alcaraz has the higher ceiling than Zverev in my opinion.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I only see one vote for Zverev. To win in 5. Is that you? I see 4 votes for Alcaraz in 4, and 1 for Alcaraz in 5. I think you're right that Front is picking Zverev, even if he didn't vote. I don't know if K voted, but she seemed to have tipped her hand, above.

Fronty probably hasnt cast his vote yet. I know K is gonna pick Charley.. K is the reverse of Tignor.. she is usually correct with everything.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I agree with Moxie Alcaraz in 4 sets, I picked Alcaraz at the start of the tournament, even though I didnt know if his forearm was okay, though we have seen through the tournament it is fine.
Alcaraz has the weapons to win RG titles, and quite frankly it is a surface that suits him, I can see into the future this young man can win more RG titles and no I havent snatched Keli's crystal ball.
Being brought up on clay which is my favorite surface it does separate the men from the boys!

 

[don_fabio]

I do agree that Alcaraz is the superior player, but he's still the "greener" one, and his nerves can get to him. Zverev will also feel the weight of opportunity. He'll need to have a near perfect serving day, and do the best he can to smother Alcaraz early. Press him into over-playing. Because, as we saw with Sinner the other day, and with Novak, at Wimbledon...once he starts feeling it, and flowing, he's amazing when he gets into high gear. And he's going to fight hard for it. He has a much more varied arsenal than Zverev. Sascha will need to be inspired. He did play one of the best matches I've seen him play recently, and I can't remember if it was in Rome or Paris. But he'll have to play like that. And hope that Alcaraz is not "on."

This is all well said. I particularly find interesting the part about Alcaraz as the "greener" one.

I was just thinking how many battles Zverev had with the big3 and in last few years how many times was he stopped by Novak alone at later stages of the slam. I feel a bit sorry for Sacha, he didn't have it easy. If it wasn't for the tough paths he could have a slam by now, but that's also on him. On a few occasions there wasn't any of the big3, final of USO 20' obvious and this year AO, didn't he blew up a 2:0 lead against Daniil in SF? At his age he should not be losing these matches anymore when the opportunity comes. It might sound stupid, but having a 2:0 lead for Sacha looks like the most dangerous one he can have. Yes he won in AO in 4 sets, after 2:0 lead, but there is no guarantee he won't blew it up here if that's how this match will go.

So, even though Zverev is more experienced player of the two there is still a question how will he handle nerves. We know Alcaraz can come back if he is in a slump, but can Zverev do the same thing?

A lot really depends on how well Sacha will serve. If he gets in a right rhytm with his 1st serve he can be really tough (considerably tougher than Sinner was), even for best returners like Novak. Charlie will probably return from the stands, which I think is a mistake and I hope he positions himself closer to the baseline. Carlos also needs to be patient with Sacha. There is going to be long rallies and rushing/pulling the trigger too early won't do him any good.

 

[El Dude]

I finally settled on Alcaraz in 5. Zverev will play well, but ultimately won't be able to thread the needle, and Alcaraz will wear him down by the end.

The only way I see Zverev winning this is in 3--maybe 4--sets. If it goes to 5, his chances go way down.

 

[atttomole]

Carlito wins in a 5 set epic. Alcarez will be in Nadal mode. He is a chameleon!!

 

[the AntiPusher]

This is all well said. I particularly find interesting the part about Alcaraz as the "greener" one.

I was just thinking how many battles Zverev had with the big3 and in last few years how many times was he stopped by Novak alone at later stages of the slam. I feel a bit sorry for Sacha, he didn't have it easy. If it wasn't for the tough paths he could have a slam by now, but that's also on him. On a few occasions there wasn't any of the big3, final of USO 20' obvious and this year AO, didn't he blew up a 2:0 lead against Daniil in SF? At his age he should not be losing these matches anymore when the opportunity comes. It might sound stupid, but having a 2:0 lead for Sacha looks like the most dangerous one he can have. Yes he won in AO in 4 sets, after 2:0 lead, but there is no guarantee he won't blew it up here if that's how this match will go.

So, even though Zverev is more experienced player of the two there is still a question how will he handle nerves. We know Alcaraz can come back if he is in a slump, but can Zverev do the same thing?

A lot really depends on how well Sacha will serve. If he gets in a right rhytm with his 1st serve he can be really tough (considerably tougher than Sinner was), even for best returners like Novak. Charlie will probably return from the stands, which I think is a mistake and I hope he positions himself closer to the baseline. Carlos also needs to be patient with Sacha. There is going to be long rallies and rushing/pulling the trigger too early won't do him any good.

Sascha Zverev nerves is a major difference himself being a grand slam champion.

 

[kskate2]

Fronty probably hasnt cast his vote yet. I know K is gonna pick Charley.. K is the reverse of Tignor.. she is usually correct with everything.

Mox is right, I did tip my hand earlier, but the worst thing Zed could do was beat Chuck in AO and fail to close the deal again. The kid has underperformed at the QF in the last 2 slams and will be looking to right those wrongs. I was generous w/ my prediction by giving Zed 2 sets because I believe he will fight for it, but "Charles In Charge" will not be denied today.

By the way, I won't be around today so I'll have to catch the biased replay on TTC tonight.

 

[nehmeth]

Tignor has picked Zverev. He picked him at the start to win it and to beat Nadal in round 1 for what it's worth. Maybe his curse has ended.

I know a few others that picked him to win through, not fans of his either. I’m a bit shocked he’s still standing. Tignor’s picked Djokovic so many times and the guy went on to win anyway. I chose Carlos in 4, mostly because Zverev’s m.o. is to choke and Chuck’s is up his level.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Chair Umpire for the match is Renaud Lichtenstein

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Gill Gross has picked Alcaraz in 4 sets to win, I listen to his podcasts from the start of a tournament to the end, he is a great tennis analysis, I know El Dude is also a fan of Gill Gross

 

[Front242]

Roland Garros men's final preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev | Tennis.com

This one feels 50/50, but who does the scale ultimately tip in favor of?

www.tennis.com

 

[Front242]

I know a few others that picked him to win through, not fans of his either. I’m a bit shocked he’s still standing. Tignor’s picked Djokovic so many times and the guy went on to win anyway. I chose Carlos in 4, mostly because Zverev’s m.o. is to choke and Chuck’s is up his level.

Yeah, Zverev chokes more than the Boston strangler. We'll soon see if he does it again.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Gonna change my pick..samr old Zed who will find away to snatch defeat from a victory even when he can see the finish line .the longer the match I would favor Carlos..

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Another point with Zverev is his serve, he is prone to get the yips on his serve resulting in DFs, when things gets tight.