Regarding about the BNP Paribas Open returning in October, I am actually curious on how will the Asian swing will be affected by the announcement. Three of the European tournaments slated at the end of the October were officially moved into November 7th week (Stockholm, Antwerp, and Kremlin Open).
In the first half of October, there are three tournaments: Japan Open, Beijing Open and Shanghai Rolex Masters 1000.
My gut is telling me that the BNP Paribas Open will be put in the late October slot, but the main draw will probably be reduced from 96 players to 64 players (basically it’s the same as other Masters 1000 except Miami).
I know for sure Nadal will definitely want to play at Indian Wells because of the playing conditions but also it will be easier from him to travel from California back to Europe.
Federer might not play at Indian Wells because his hometown tournament (Basel) is schedule towards the end of October, so he will definitely prefers the indoor conditions plus he gets to stay home.
Djokovic is 50/50 at this point. He loves playing Beijing/Shanghai combo at the same time he probably would not want the strict COVID protocols that China is implementing at the moment.
By the way, California is probably one the best US states in terms of handling COVID and vaccination protocols. Ever since March, the cases have been slowing down significantly and people are not getting critically ill as it used to compared to the holiday surge. I can confirm this because I work at hospital in Southern California.