So I saw these. And I find them.... mostly surprising. Or uninspired. I mean. That many people picking Barty is sort of shocking to me. Again. As I said in my quarter break downs. Barty is totally capable of coming out of that draw alive. But it's MUCH more likely that she doesn't. With Muguruza, Kerber and Serena there. I mean. Serena may very well not be healthy. And Muguruza is always up and down and also hasn't been healthy and didn't do a warm up. And Kerber got her butt kicked by Pliskova in the Eastbourne final. But she looked good all week. If Serena is healthy and doesn't pull out she's one of the top 3 candidates to win it. And Muguruza has the power and game to deal with and even dismantle Barty if she is on. But Barty in the fine form she's in, definitely has the goods to beat Muguruza, whether she's on or not. But beating Serena or Kerber on grass seems like a much tougher task to me. And THEN there's the semis and finals.
Some people put Serena as a dark horse. That doesn't jive with me. That's like... not fair. That's cheating. She may not be your personal favorite as an "expert." But she's Serena. She's got 7 titles. She's a favorite and labeling her a dark horse is just disrespectful. A possibly unhealthy Kvitova who hasn't won here since 2014 and lost in the 1st round last year, can be a dark horse, except that she's actually top 10. But some of them put Bertens as a dark horse. She's number FOUR. They clearly have NO rules as to what constitutes a dark horse.
Barty, Kerber and Serena are favorites for me. The problem with that is that they're all in the same quarter. So you gotta have others. But. We know it could legit be anyone. Osaka could suddenly be amazing again. Though there are not many signs pointing to her being able to do that on the grass. But. We've seen how amazing she is. It's not outside the realm of possibilities. Halep could fight her way there. Keys could finally have the goods. One of them mentioned Sevastova as a dark horse. The way they are thinking is that she is clearly in a wide open quarter, as I mentioned, and could just be the one that comes out alive and makes the semis and gets lucky. She is fairly solid on the grass. Made the semis at the US Open by beating Stephens who she lost a close one to at the US Open in the quarters in 2017. The US Open has clearly been her forte. But she's got game. And could be on the cusp of something. Pliskova could continue her Eastbourne run for once. Stephens, has been horrible. But yes. As someone who has watched her closely and tries to keep a level head about her, she is still entirely capable of running the gauntlet and taking the title. But if she runs into Serena on grass. I don't like her chances. She has a great record against Kerber and Kvitova though. So if she can get past her first round or two she can have a shot. Except that she doesn't have a win against Konta. Konta could finally break the British women's title drought. Because she's got Stephens near her and then Kvitova who may or may not get there. And she can probably hang with Kvitova if she is there. She can probably beat anyone in the semis except MAYBE Serena. She loves the grass. So my main issue is that my two biggest favorites, last year's finalists, have to play by the 4th round if they're gonna play. So I'm at a loss. But that does NOT mean I'm just gonna go with the hot player who just got to number 1.
