2019 Men's Wimbledon Championships

[El Dude]

If I were a Rafa fan I'd be very worried about Kyrgios. And a bit worried about the rest of the draw, for the most part. But I'd also rest easy in that the pressure is off him - he's the third favorite at best and if he does win Wimbledon, it will be a rather impressive feat considering the path he likely has to go through, including (probably) Roger and Novak.

But the best-case scenario for Rafa is that Kyrgios goes walkabout and loses to Thompson, Roger is upset by a hot Berretini, and Novak loses to FAA or Tits.

 

[Moxie]

If I were a Rafa fan I'd be very worried about Kyrgios. And a bit worried about the rest of the draw, for the most part. But I'd also rest easy in that the pressure is off him - he's the third favorite at best and if he does win Wimbledon, it will a rather impressive feat considering the path he likely he has to go through, including (probably) Roger and Novak.

But the best-case scenario for Rafa is that Kyrgios goes walkabout and loses to Thompson, Roger is upset by a hot Berretini, and Novak loses to FAA or Tits.

As a Rafa fan, I believe I have just expressed that I'm worried about Kyrgios. The rest I find a bit condescending. A third favorite "at best?" Who else is your preferred 3rd favorite? As to the rest of his draw, or path, sure, if he goes through Roger and Novak to win it, he'd the he-man of the year. That would be awesome. But the rest of it isn't like it's nothing anyone else hasn't said. Or is in fact rather obvious. Roger's path to SF is easy, and Novak's is relatively uncomplicated. We've gone over this. And I think you've been in the conversation.

 

[El Dude]

It is amazingly easy to offend you, Moxie. The condescension is all in your interpretation...having fun with that?

He's my 3rd favorite. If you want to be upset about me saying "at best," go ahead. I can see scenarios where other players do better, have deeper runs.

 

[Moxie]

It is amazingly easy to offend you, Moxie. The condescension is all in your interpretation...having fun with that?

He's my 3rd favorite. If you want to be upset about me saying "at best," go ahead. I can see scenarios where other players do better, have deeper runs.

You really should stop playing like you're so "neutral." Who is the 3rd favorite...not yours...everyone's? Rafa. Sure, there are paths for others, and they've been described, including by the ESPN experts who laid it out pretty well. And here. You're welcome to restate, of course, but you didn't say anything new, and you did toss in a bit of shade, imo. That post was basically just shade.

 

[don_fabio]

Kyrgios was crushed in last year USO against Fed when we all expected a popcorn match. I could see a scenario in which Kyrgios is an easy path for Rafa. We have seen before when a difficult looking draw becomes fairly easy and the good draw turns out to be hard, so just maybe Novak or Fed could have more troubles along the way.

 

[El Dude]

You really should stop playing like you're so "neutral." Who is the 3rd favorite...not yours...everyone's? Rafa. Sure, there are paths for others, and they've been described, including by the ESPN experts who laid it out pretty well. And here. You're welcome to restate, of course, but you didn't say anything new, and you did toss in a bit of shade, imo. That post was basically just shade.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Current odds for the contenders.

1. Novak 7/5 (41.66%)
2. Roger 10/3 (23.08%)
3. Ralph 7 (12.5%)

The chances for both Novak and Roger has improved since the draw came out and the chances for Ralph has decreased since the draw came out. But, the increases and decreases are not huge. Novak is +3%, Ralph is -2%, Fed is +1%.

I would have expected Fed's and Novak's increase amount to be the other way based on the draw. Novak surely has a tougher draw than Fed.

More later, if I find time.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You really are getting techy and ugly. Whatever you think about the women's game, Wimbledon is one tournament. To have two sets of rules re: seeding is odd.

Yet, you are happy with women playing three sets in all the "one tournaments".

 

[MartyB]

As a Rafa fan, I believe I have just expressed that I'm worried about Kyrgios. The rest I find a bit condescending. A third favorite "at best?" Who else is your preferred 3rd favorite? As to the rest of his draw, or path, sure, if he goes through Roger and Novak to win it, he'd the he-man of the year. That would be awesome. But the rest of it isn't like it's nothing anyone else hasn't said. Or is in fact rather obvious. Roger's path to SF is easy, and Novak's is relatively uncomplicated. We've gone over this. And I think you've been in the conversation.

I would not use at best for any of the big 3 no matter the surface. The men's seedings that we debated did not make a difference for Rafa/Fed facing each other but for the draw it sure did! Rafa faces an arduous task.

 

[mrzz]

Apart from the serve, Kyrgios is a threat to Nadal because he likes -- actually needs -- high bouncing balls to generate pace on his own. Even on grass and its lower bounce, Nadal's shots will go above hip height and that is what Kyrgios needs. Also, his disruptive play does not give any one rhythm (something Nadal likes). Very often players get to the TB against Kyrgios still kind of flat, lose an stupid point and there goes the set. Honestly, if Kyrgios is playing relatively near his (quite strange) grass court best, I really see him as a strong favorite against Nadal (on fast grass only, let it be clear).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In case, Nick does not get the job done, I think the best choice for the job in the next round is Tsonga (and not Shapo). Shapo is quite inconsistent these days and has become an UFE machine. Tsonga's serves are powerful and when he is on, he is untouchable.

 

[Moxie]

Yet, you are happy with women playing three sets in all the "one tournaments".

Incorrect. I have long argued that they should play Bo5 at Majors, too.

 

[don_fabio]

In case, Nick does not get the job done, I think the best choice for the job in the next round is Tsonga (and not Shapo). Shapo is quite inconsistent these days and has become an UFE machine. Tsonga's serves are powerful and when he is on, he is untouchable.

Tsonga is coming back to a pretty decent form and he likes playing on grass so I chose him over UFE machine.

I read that Ivanisevic joined the Nole camp for this Wimbledon.

 

[Bonaca]

As a Rafa fan, I believe I have just expressed that I'm worried about Kyrgios. The rest I find a bit condescending. A third favorite "at best?" Who else is your preferred 3rd favorite? As to the rest of his draw, or path, sure, if he goes through Roger and Novak to win it, he'd the he-man of the year. That would be awesome. But the rest of it isn't like it's nothing anyone else hasn't said. Or is in fact rather obvious. Roger's path to SF is easy, and Novak's is relatively uncomplicated. We've gone over this. And I think you've been in the conversation.

Don’t be worried about Kyrgios, Nadal will win for sure. He is in a very good shape. I’m sure he will at least reach the SF and has a real chance against Maestro. I hope he wins, not because I like him more than fed, for me there is no better Match in tennis than Novak-Rafael.
Let’s hope we get blessed with another epic battle.

 

[Bonaca]

Tsonga is coming back to a pretty decent form and he likes playing on grass so I chose him over UFE machine.

I read that Ivanisevic joined the Nole camp for this Wimbledon.

Goran is half Serbian, so nothing special about it. And by the way he always needs money, but who doesn’t?

 

[brokenshoelace]

Yes this time he has to take out bull by himself with good play, can’t rely on Novak to do this job. Poor Maestro. If he loses, everyone of you Federer fans will suffer badly.

I honestly don't think Nadal will make it to Federer. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[DarthFed]

Don’t be worried about Kyrgios, Nadal will win for sure. He is in a very good shape. I’m sure he will at least reach the SF and has a real chance against Maestro. I hope he wins, not because I like him more than fed, for me there is no better Match in tennis than Novak-Rafael.
Let’s hope we get blessed with another epic battle.

Those matches are only good when Novak is playing full throttle and destroys Nadal. Any true Rafa hater is not rooting for him to make the final here or anywhere. This fortnight is about Roger stepping up and protecting his career before catastrophe strikes.

 

[kskate2]

Wimbledon Order of Play for Round 1 Monday, July 1, 2019

 

[Ricardo]

Incorrect. I have long argued that they should play Bo5 at Majors, too.

increase quantity when quality is already lower, it would put off most people even more.....all it does is so feminists can wank themselves better.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Well, I think that @Federberg nailed when he posted that this is Wimbledon being Wimbledon, but... even if surfaces are not that different now, let's not pretend they are exactly the same. Most player's winning percentage across surfaces are different enough. The greatest problem is that grass "season" is extremely short, so they compensate with a two years ranking. Wimbledon is just standing their ground (literally). That is their way of saying "grass is different". The discrepancy once was more prominent, yes, but it is still there.

But isn't a marvelous and beautiful coincidence that Federer fans think that the Wimbledon system is fair, and Nadal fans otherwise? Oh, what a terrible and torturing thing it would be if some poor Federer (Nadal) fan reckoned that this system is wrong (right).

I've been on the record saying grass is actually still a significantly different surface, but then why not make special rankings clay too?