2019 Men's Wimbledon Championships

[DarthFed]

Cilic struggling with a clay court specialist

EDIT: looked and he actually isn't really clay court specialist like I thought. He hasn't excelled much on any surface.

 

[mrzz]

I agree that Nadal is, BY FAAAAAAAAAAAAR, the better player, and that, as @brokenshoelace says, means that if he plays well he wins, but... in this particular surface, given both players characteristics, it could be different. Point is, what does it mean "if Kyrgios play well"? It means:

a) Serve like hell;
b) Fire the occasional winner from the back court when the ball floats;
c) Connect some "eyes-closed" returns of serve winners;
c) Come up with an unorthodox (successful) shot at a key moment, that wins the point and pisses off the adversary;

On grass this could mean three sets slipping his way on TB's (or a lone late break), even if the opponent is playing better tennis. If the other guy gets frustrated because of that, it can get "easier" (don't think Nadal would fall into that though).

Add to it that Nadal on grass has not been exactly stellar (not even last year, honestly), and I think -- oddly enough -- that Kyrgios is... is.... well, almost the favorite. Nadal can always find another gear, but if both play their "normal" grass game, I edge towards NK.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I get where you're trying to go with this but I'm not sure you're giving enough respect to match ups. Tennis can't be this simple... if the better player is playing well he wins. Not sure it works that clearly...

We have to define what "well" means because from what Ricardo and mrzzz seem to indicate, and what you seem to be agreeing with, is much more in line with playing "great" than playing "well." I'm not being all hung up on a technicality, but there's a big difference.

And in most tennis matches, when the better player plays well, he/she does win. The idea is simple enough, what's not simple of course, is what the opponent does to stop said player from playing well. This is where it gets complicated.

I still think that the idea that all Kyrgios has to do is play well to guarantee victory, irrespective of match-ups and surfaces, is extremely rich, and it would be predicated on Nadal not playing well. Now, if Kyrgios were to play amazing, then things are vastly different, because he can be quite unplayable when he does and I don't even think that highly of his game.

 

[Federberg]

We have to define what "well" means because from what Ricardo and mrzzz seem to indicate, and what you seem to be agreeing with, is much more in line with playing "great" than playing "well." I'm not being all hung up on a technicality, but there's a big difference.

And in most tennis matches, when the better player plays well, he/she does win. The idea is simple enough, what's not simple of course, is what the opponent does to stop said player from playing well. This is where it gets complicated.

I still think that the idea that all Kyrgios has to do is play well to guarantee victory, irrespective of match-ups and surfaces, is extremely rich, and it would be predicated on Nadal not playing well. Now, if Kyrgios were to play amazing, then things are vastly different, because he can be quite unplayable when he does and I don't even think that highly of his game.

If anyone is saying that Kyrgios playing well means he beats Rafa then that's messed up. It's more accurate to say that Kyrgios playing well means he has a chance, but Rafa has to be favourite

 

[brokenshoelace]

If anyone is saying that Kyrgios playing well means he beats Rafa then that's messed up. It's more accurate to say that Kyrgios playing well means he has a chance, but Rafa has to be favourite

I really think the match is close to 55-45 in favor of Rafa with a real chance for an upset because of how early it is in the tournament and the nature of the surface to be clear. But yeah, that's what the original post suggested, that if Nick plays well he wins (verbatim).

 

[herios]

Brit #3 Dan Evans pulls it off in 3 sets against Basilashvilli, who needs to learn how to play on grass.

 

[DarthFed]

Cilic is going to lose. Had a feeling he wouldn't even reach round 4. Draw isn't looking so bad for Rafa after today. Hopefully Nick makes this a good 4th of July.

 

[atttomole]

And what if Nadal plays well? Honest question.

For the record, I think the chances of an upset, especially with them meeting early, are quite significant, but to so matter-of-factly state "if Nick plays well he wins" is ridiculous when the other guy is clearly the better player. Here's news: If Nadal plays well, he wins. That's how tennis often works anyway.

Anyway, I think Nick will be up for this one and if he serves well, he won't give Nadal any rhythm. Think Rafa who's lacking grass court play might struggle to get his feet into the match early and find himself down as Nick grows in confidence. Not ready to fully predict an upset though as I really have no idea how each guy will play. But I'll reiterate, if Nadal plays well, he wins.

I agree that Nadal is the favorite. He has 18 slam titles and is world number 2. However, I think Kyrgios has a better grass court game than Nadal, regardless of the fact that Nadal has more titles on grass. Kyrgios just has to get his act together (which I think he never will) to make his talent count.

 

[El Dude]

I find it unlikely that Kyrgios beats Nadal, whose grass game has improved greatly over the last couple years. This isn't 2015-16 Rafa.

But what makes it interesting is that Kyrgios can play at a very high level, especially vs top players. He has the game to beat Rafa on grass, just probably not the head - not against this version of Rafa. With Rafa's current form there's just little margin for error, and we can all imagine how frustrated Kyrgios will get when Rafa returns fancy shot after fancy shot.

 

[mrzz]

Federer just won the first 6x1 but... honestly, it did not convince me one bit.

 

[Moxie]

Cilic is going to lose. Had a feeling he wouldn't even reach round 4. Draw isn't looking so bad for Rafa after today.

Cilic has been struggling, esp. with his serve, for some time now. If ESPN would show that match, instead of this bloodbath over poor Clarke, maybe I'd have a better idea.

 

[Federberg]

I find it unlikely that Kyrgios beats Nadal, whose grass game has improved greatly over the last couple years. This isn't 2015-16 Rafa.

But what makes it interesting is that Kyrgios can play at a very high level, especially vs top players. He has the game to beat Rafa on grass, just probably not the head - not against this version of Rafa. With Rafa's current form there's just little margin for error, and we can all imagine how frustrated Kyrgios will get when Rafa returns fancy shot after fancy shot.

hard to argue with this. Furthermore all the smack talk has to have increased Rafa's focus. I'll say this... if Nick beats Rafa today, he's really really beating Rafa, not Rafa losing

 

[El Dude]

Quite frankly I think we're going to see a Rafa-Novak final. I just have a hunch that Rafa is going to beat Roger. The courts are already playing slow (at least according to Sloane Stephens), and by next week they should be clay-like.

Hope I'm wrong, but its what my gut says.

 

[Moxie]

Quite frankly I think we're going to see a Rafa-Novak final. I just have a hunch that Rafa is going to beat Roger. The courts are already playing slow (at least according to Sloane Stephens), and by next week they should be clay-like.

Hope I'm wrong, but its what my gut says.

It's pretty warm in London, and no rain is forecast for really most of the fortnight, so that won't help. Still, the balls are very heavy at Wimbledon, and it really is grass, not clay.

 

[DarthFed]

The courts are shameless. Sucks that the Wimbledon twats have affected history quite a bit with making the conditions worse and worse over the years here. It really is like Madrid is to clay.

 

[DarthFed]

Quite frankly I think we're going to see a Rafa-Novak final. I just have a hunch that Rafa is going to beat Roger. The courts are already playing slow (at least according to Sloane Stephens), and by next week they should be clay-like.

Hope I'm wrong, but its what my gut says.

They are playing obnoxiously slow according to a bunch of people. Roger complained a bit too.

 

[tented]

They are playing obnoxiously slow according to a bunch of people. Roger complained a bit too.

The implication is that they’ve been slowed down noticeably since just last year. What do you think they have done to slow them down so much? And what did Roger say?

 

[atttomole]

The courts are shameless. Sucks that the Wimbledon twats have affected history quite a bit with making the conditions worse and worse over the years here. It really is like Madrid is to clay.

They have affected history a lot. With fast grass, I don’t think Nadal would have reached a final. Now he has 2 Wimbledon titles on his resume, and a few final losses.

 

[DarthFed]

The implication is that they’ve been slowed down noticeably since just last year. What do you think they have done to slow them down so much? And what did Roger say?

For what I hear the surface is unchanged since 2001. But I think this year the grass was quite a bit taller to start. Aside from that they have seemingly used a heavier ball at times. Federer said that Wimbledon clearly isn't the fastest major anymore, suggesting USO is even faster.

 

[DarthFed]

They have affected history a lot. With fast grass, I don’t think Nadal would have reached a final. Now he has 2 Wimbledon titles on his resume, and a few final losses.

And Roger doesn't have an underwhelming 8. He'd still be heavy favorite at Wimbledon if this played more like Halle.