So the greatness of the match itself aside, this to me looked very similar to a pattern I've seen Nadal develop over the past few years, whereby he plays better as the match progresses, not because he's in good form, not because he's feeling good about his game, but because of experience, will, fighting-spirit, tactical adjustments, and playing the moment.
This is what I said before the match on page 1 of this thread: "Nadal to win this in a struggle. I think he'll "find a way" but his forehand needs to be on. It really feels like he's either not hitting it with enough intensity or the surface is just not eating up his spin at all which is really weird considering how hard and bouncy it is with the conditions, further indicating that it's the way he's hitting the ball that's the problem. I was watching old clips from Nadal on grass, including his 2011 match with DP here at Wimbledon, and the difference in forehands is pretty glaring. I can't explain it."
And this is exactly my take-away from the match (yes, I'm patting myself on the back). I think Nadal is playing decent on the whole, especially with his struggles here in recent years, but this level isn't enough to win the tournament. It really feels like all his shots, including the serve, are some 10% weaker in terms of power and zip. I don't know how to explain it, but he's generally employing the right approach, playing the right way, going for the right shots, but there seems to be something lacking.
Despite the conditions being to his liking, his forehand isn't exploding off the court, and Del Potro, who's hardly the quickest guy on tour, was able to track it down regularly, even when Nadal pulled the trigger inside out. It got to a point where it was a risk going for that shot because it gave Delpo the opportunity to fire up his running forehand up the line. Luckily for Nadal, this match-up has become heavily in his favor since Del Potro's backhand regressed so much over the years, and he was able to exploit it a lot (though Del Potro continues to be disappointing by never even attempting to go after his CC backhand. He has no confidence in that shot at all anymore, but I feel in this match-up, he's better off going for it even if it misses, just to take Nadal out of his comfort zone).
There's a reason you saw Nadal go to the net so often, use the drop shot more than ever, and utilize his slice to break rhythm...he was doing problem solving and trying to savvy his way into victory, because he didn't have full confidence in his ground game and it showed. It worked, he played a really smart match, and played the big points incredibly well in the final set. But he was getting no free points on serve and I don't see how that doesn't bite him against Novak. Plus, he'll need to be in shot-making mode against Djokovic. Playing smart won't cut it, and I just don't think Nadal has that in him right now.
