2018 Wimbledon men’s SF: Djokovic v Nadal

[Fiero425]

I take your points about W '11 v. USO '13. As I said, by an observation it was closer. But you don't account for my point that Djokovic is only newly rounding into form on his own comeback. I'm fine if you want to make a prognostication, and that your assessment is that it won't be close. But you're not willing to take into account that this isn't '11-'12 Djokovic or the '15-'16 version?

That level of play may not occur again for quite a while! These Next Gens don't seem to have the body and stamina to win that much! I believe Nole's near perfection in '15 thru FO in '16 was terribly debilitating since he was making final after final week in and week out! Even Fed wasn't doing that back in his "hey day!" Current players like Milos and Kei can't seem to stay on the court more than a month or so before breaking down and being on extended breaks for rehabs! I had enough of waiting for Del Po to fulfill his promise, but didn't because his wrist snaps like a twig periodically! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

That level of play may not occur again for quite a while! These Next Gens don't seem to have the body and stamina to win that much! I believe Nole's near perfection in '15 thru FO in '16 was terribly debilitating since he was making final after final week in and week out! Even Fed wasn't doing that back in his "hey day!" Current players like Milos and Kei can't seem to stay on the court more than a month or so before breaking down and being on extended break for rehabs! I had enough of waiting for Del Po to fulfill his promise, but didn't because his wrist snaps like a twig periodically! :whistle:

I do think Fed was doing that back in his hey-day. The one thing that Novak endured the pressure on was 4 Slams in a row. Almost everyone expected a let-down after that. But no one expected a 2 year walkabout.

 

[imjimmy]

Of all the reasons to go for Novak in 4, I would think this is one of the least valid. How does he want it more than Rafa does?

I agree with that. It doesn't matter what anyone wants or who wants more. The player that plays better on the day, wins.
Just by wanting something more, the players cannot will themselves to play significantly better.

 

[Fiero425]

I do think Fed was doing that back in his hey-day. The one thing that Novak endured the pressure on was 4 Slams in a row. Almost everyone expected a let-down after that. But no one expected a 2 year walkabout.

Fed didn't have to deal with the current Big 4 at the time! Nadal was still a neophyte though he owned Roger early! Nole had to deal with a lot more competition; in 2015 setting record defeating 31 "top ten" pros! :whistle:

 

[imjimmy]

But you don't account for my point that Djokovic is only newly rounding into form on his own comeback. I'm fine if you want to make a prognostication, and that your assessment is that it won't be close. But you're not willing to take into account that this isn't '11-'12 Djokovic or the '15-'16 version?

I do concede on this point. If my prediction turns out to be inaccurate (and I wouldn't be unhappy if it does), it will likely be because of my faulty assessment of Djokovic's form. I don't think he is mentally at the 11-12' or 15-16' level. Those years, he had a mental aura, and just refused to lose. However from a game perspective, his new serve seems very effective. His forehand is almost, now, the more deadly wing. His backhand is as solid as ever. He is also stretching and moving as he used to before. So from his form, I think he is close to his prime.

But then again, I don't watch, or analyze, Novak's game as keenly as I do, Rafa's. So you might be correct in assuming that Novak is not back and hasn't faced a stronger player, and so his deficiencies, which were absent during his prime, haven't been exposed. In which case, Nadal might have a better chance tomorrow.
I think it's all subjective opinions. Let's see what transpires tomorrow.

 

[Moxie]

I do concede on this point. If my prediction turns out to be inaccurate (and I wouldn't be unhappy if it does), it will likely be because of my faulty assessment of Djokovic's form. I don't think he is mentally at the 11-12' or 15-16' level. Those years, he had a mental aura, and just refused to lose. However from a game perspective, his new serve seems very effective. His forehand is almost, now, the more deadly wing. His backhand is as solid as ever. He is also stretching and moving as he used to before. So from his form, I think he is close to his prime.

But then again, I don't watch, or analyze, Novak's game as keenly as I do, Rafa's. So you might be correct in assuming that Novak is not back and hasn't faced a stronger player, and so his deficiencies, which were absent during his prime, haven't been exposed. In which case, Nadal might have a better chance tomorrow.
I think it's all subjective opinions. Let's see what transpires tomorrow.

Of course we're just rubbing over it all and thinking of how it might go. I've pretty much said my piece and now there's nothing left but to watch the matches tomorrow.

 

[imjimmy]

Of course we're just rubbing over it all and thinking of how it might go. I've pretty much said my piece and now there's nothing left but to watch the matches tomorrow.

True. The last unknown is also Rafa's game tomorrow. Can he raise his level and play the best match of the tournament.
He has done that in the past, so it's not entirely inconceivable. But going to 5 sets with Delpo and playing for close to 5 hours, must have taken its toll. Which is one reason why that TB slip in set 2 was so damaging. I had thought Rafa would get the match in straights or 4 sets at most, after watching set 1.

 

[Moxie]

True. The last unknown is also Rafa's game tomorrow. Can he raise his level and play the best match of the tournament.
He has done that in the past, so it's not entirely inconceivable. But going to 5 sets with Delpo and playing for close to 5 hours, must have taken its toll. Which is one reason why that TB slip in set 2 was so damaging. I had thought Rafa would get the match in straights or 4 sets at most, after watching set 1.

Agreed that that was a damaging slip. But Nadal is definitely one to see opportunity and seize it. If nothing else, I'm sure he'll leave a lot of heart on the court. Don't forget that Djokovic will also have to bring the best tennis of his last 2 years to beat Rafa, and he knows it. Tomorrow's match smacks of a virtual final. As was the RG '13 SF. And Rafa won that one.

 

[Jelenafan]

2015/16 Djokovic had a 6-3 h2h (including 3-0 in Majors) with Federer and a 7-0 (1-0 Majors) with Nadal.

So that’s 13-3 and 4-0 in Majors during that period with what some would argue are the two best players of all time.

I find that more impressive than Roger’s heyday as far as domination.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think what works in Novak’s favor is this is a SF, so it isn’t the final. I think the nerves would play more of a factor for him in a final since he hasn’t been in that position for about 2 years.

 

[atttomole]

Djokovic is back as a contender, the question to be answered is if he’s completely “back” as in ready to wrest the Majors away from others now.

One thing working in his favor is that Djokovic, rightly or wrongly, seems to play best with a chip on his shoulder as to how much respect he gets from the crowd, the tennis Powers, the other players (the tension between himself and Roger is hilarious, both trying to keep their bitchiness at bay ), etc, etc. He THRIVES on that, and I’m sure he’s noted every perceived slight in the last 24 months when he’s dipped. I love that he bitched about centre court scheduling, it is so Djokovic!

Having said that, he hasn’t played a high stakes SF or Finals Major match in quite a while, so there may be some lingering mental rust.

So while it’s not a shocker to me if he wins, I’m keeping it Rafa 51/49 for now as far as chances to win this SF.

Either way, I like both players so it’s win/win for me...

Not sure if Djokovic still has any issues with Roger. I know that there has been tension between the two, beginning around 2008, but now it looks like it's over.

 

[Fiero425]

Not sure if Djokovic still has any issues with Roger. I know that there has been tension between the two, beginning around 2008, but now it looks like it's over.

Nole has the "Lendl complex;" getting no love no matter what he did, Ivan got the back of the hand from the fans! Now it's all about Fedal and no one else exists in the minds of the average viewer and commentator! Making their '08 Wimbledon final as the "BEST EVER" was, is, and will continue to be a joke! It's more like wishful thinking so these people don't have to really be creative in their writings and commentary; the masses have it ensconced in their brain that tennis begins and ends with Fedal! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

I think what works in Novak’s favor is this is a SF, so it isn’t the final. I think the nerves would play more of a factor for him in a final since he hasn’t been in that position for about 2 years.

Neither has he been in a SF in about 2 years. He will be fully aware that this is a virtual final. I don't see that the pressure gets let off for either that it's a SF. Nadal, on the other hand, has been in plenty of SFs and Fs of Majors in the interim. And he's got a stronger mentality. I find it surprising that so many people give Novak the edge in this one.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Neither has he been in a SF in about 2 years. He will be fully aware that this is a virtual final. I don't see that the pressure gets let off for either that it's a SF. Nadal, on the other hand, has been in plenty of SFs and Fs of Majors in the interim. And he's got a stronger mentality. I find it surprising that so many people give Novak the edge in this one.

Moxie, in social media (the "analysts) most pick Nadal over Djokovic in a tight match. I think they know that if it gets onto a long hard fought battle then more than likely Nadal will win.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think it will come down to the Nadal serve because Novak’s return of serve has been on fire this tournament. Novak’s serve has been pretty solid.

 

[Moxie]

I think it will come down to the Nadal serve because Novak’s return of serve has been on fire this tournament. Novak’s serve has been pretty solid.

I don't know. Check his stats for the last couple of rounds.

 

[imjimmy]

2 big factors that could turn the outcome of the match:

Roof potentially being closed because of rain would completely change the playing conditions to slower and lower bouncing.
Rafa's 4 hr 48 min match against Delpo in which he ran almost 3.5 miles. How fresh will Nadal be?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

2 big factors that could turn the outcome of the match:

Roof potentially being closed because of rain would completely change the playing conditions to slower and lower bouncing.
Rafa's 4 hr 48 min match against Delpo in which he ran almost 3.5 miles. How fresh will Nadal be?

The first one will be a factor and not the second one.

Rafa has so much physical stamina, he can run a marathon and play tennis next day against a top 10 player.

He played Verdasco in AO at SF stage for about 6 hours and then did not have problem in the finals despite the fact that he had only one day rest, whereas his opponent had two days rest.

 

[Fiero425]

The first one will be a factor and not the second one.

Rafa has so much physical stamina, he can run a marathon and play tennis next day against a top 10 player.

He played Verdasco in AO at SF stage for about 6 hours and then did not have problem in the finals despite the fact that he had only one day rest, whereas his opponent had two days rest.

Back in 2012, no one worked harder than Nole "down under," going 5 hours in the SF against Murray, then had to play a marathon of 6 (5:53) in the final against Nadal! I'm still trying to recover watching it all from beginning to end and thru the presentation that dragged on! The players were ready to collapse; finally getting chairs! When has that ever happened anywhere? :whistle:

 

[Front242]

2015/16 Djokovic had a 6-3 h2h (including 3-0 in Majors) with Federer and a 7-0 (1-0 Majors) with Nadal.

So that’s 13-3 and 4-0 in Majors during that period with what some would argue are the two best players of all time.

I find that more impressive than Roger’s heyday as far as domination.

Except that in 2015-2016 they were nowhere even close to their best. Nadal was putrid during that period and Federer was years past his prime and not anywhere near his 2017 level.

It's pretty obvious that Djokovic is only ahead in the h2h due to Nadal having an awful 2 year period there and Federer being ancient for years now.