Scouting Report on Alex De Minaur:
General Info:
19 yrs old, 5'11", 152 lbs, turned pro 2015. right handed, two handed back-hand, current singles ranking is 80.
Spent 2015 and 2016 in futures and challengers. He started making appearances in GSs from 2017.
Came into prominence when he reached SF at Brisbane and F at Sydney this year. But, this is his first Wimbledon.
He won Nottingham challenger, but did not have to face anyone inside 100. His favorite surface is grass.
Game:
1. He is not a big server like Isner, Raonic, Karlovic or even a younger version of them. But, his service is not
a liability either. He has a decent serve.
2. His net play is quite competent. However, he does not come in too often like Brown or Herbert or Mischa.
Having said that he is not a predominantly baseline guy like Novak, Chung, Coric etc.
3. He has a very good forehand that can finish points. His backhand is sort of liability. He would have
very few winners on the BH side. Moreover, when pressed on the BH side, often has a tendency to
hit a short ball which can be pulverized by the opponent. He tries to avoid playing lot of BH shots.
4. His primary strengths are two things: aggression and speed. He has a basic aggressive mentality
and is on aggression whenever he can (kind of like the opposite of Andy Murray mentality). He plays
defense only when it is absolutely necessary. He has pretty good speed and hence his court coverage
is quite good.
5. Intangibles: He is too young and fearless. He may not even know that he is not supposed to beat Rafa.
However, he has not even played against this caliber of opponents. In Eastbourne, soem one like
Kukushkin beat him up badly 6-1, 6-2 in the first round. As H2H is 0-0, there will be a surprise element
for both players. When asked in the presser about Alex, Rafa replied "I know him, he is young, he is good
and he is dangerous".
6. The bookies give Rafa 90% chance and Alex 10% chance. I give Rafa 70% chance and Alex 30% chance.
Hence, I did not project this match in the upset thread. I project it only when in my estimated there is
at least 50% chance. I think Alex De Minaur will be able to beat Rafa in the future, but right now is
not quite ready.
7. But, make no mistake. While Alex De Minaur may not (and most probably will not) win, he certainly fits
the generic mold of players against whom Rafa will be uncomfortable playing on grass, especially in the first week.
Hence, I expect this match to be interesting to watch. So, I will be watching it from beginning to end (or at least until
the minor lingering suspense is over).
p.s. Feddies take heart and wait patiently. JMDP will beat up Rafa in QF. But, unfortunately no one to stop Rafa from maintaining his #1 ranking even after Wimbledon.