2017 RG Final: Wawrinka vs Nadal

[brokenshoelace]

I recall you argued that Nadal of 05-07 was faster and that Nadal of 08 was better than Nadal of 2010 because Nadal of 2010 was slower etc.. I recall this argument clearly. What i took issue is that you came up with this to explain Nadal's woes against Djokovic in 2011. Basically, as Nadal was getting beaten by Nole in 2011, your argument was basically that it was because Nadal had physical problems, slower etc... I then pointed out that Nadal's 2010 season was better than his 2008 season and even his 2013 season was better than Nadal's 08 season. Nadal himself has recently said that 08 wasn't his best year, it was either 13 or 10. My main issue with your argument is that it was all to make excuses for why Nadal was losing to Nole but if you consider that Nadal was making final after final and only losing to Nole (a possessed Nole), there was little evidence that he was slower or not at his best. Now you are making the same physical excuses to explain Nadal's woes at Wimbledon. Did you just see how Nadal swept everyone at FO this year? There is no way that a Nadal with knee issues wouldn't come close to dominating as he did.

So basically, he improved on grass between 06-07, then peaks in 08 and then improves on hards but inexplicably his grass court game goes to crap? Makes little sense to me. He had a great 08 Wimbledon run, but this doesn't mean he just forgot to play on grass after 08. Now we can argue that perhaps he worked on his hard court game and not grass but this is counterintuitive because if someone improves his hard court game, his grass court game should also improve. Let me remind you that Nadal won 2010 Wimbledon and made finals of 2011 Wimbledon, only losing to Djokovic in finals. A baby Djokovic took a set off Nadal in 07 Wimbledon semis, any reason to believe 08 Nadal would've beaten 11 Djokovic on grass? You also can't say for sure that dangerous grass courters like like Kyrgios, Dustin Brown couldn't have taken out Nadal at 08 Wimbledon, we will never know. Now i think you can argue that 08 Nadal peaked on grass (i'm not sure that's the case based on what i have said here) but to use knees as the reason makes little sense and here's why. Which surface is the hardest on the knees? hard courts, right? So how can Nadal peak on hards in 2010-2013 but suffer on grass due to his knees? If he did have knee probs then his hard court game would've suffered the most.



but he had his best hard court season ever in 2013 so how is this possible if he indeed was not the same due to past knee problems? isn't hard courts the toughest on knees? see my point?

He has always been vulnerable on grass, regularly battling 5 setters and tough matches even in years when he made finals. You can't say for sure that Dustin Brown, kyrgios wouldn't have beaten him in 08. My point is that using knees as an excuse is counterintuitive because how can a player improve on hards but worsen on grass due to knees? makes no sense.

again, how can he improve on hards but worsen on grass due to knees? This is very tricky for you to explain. My issue isn't necessarily that you argue Nadal peaked on grass on 08 (it's debatable but i can see why you would say this) it's that you point to knees as the reason.

By the way the logical fallacies in this post made my head hurt. So you can imagine the smile on my face when I read Nadal's quote.

Regardless, in the interest of fairness and not being a dick, I'll explain re: how could Nadal improve on hards but regress on grass?

Nadal improved on hards because he improved his serve, backhand, was less reliant on running around his forehand, standing closer to the baseline, etc... Basically, his marginal loss in movement was compensated by stepping up the aggression and playing smarter hard court tennis.

Now, of course, the above improvements should translate to grass as well. And they did for a while, until the knees kicked in. Hard courts might be harder on the knees long term, but in terms of bending down low, moving, making subtle footwork adjustments, etc... grass is the surface in which the knees have to be perfect. Nadal definitely looks more awkward moving on grass now than he did when he was making finals, so he's often not a good position to hit his ground strokes.

Moreover, he has little time to make the adjustments to his new "condition" (again, this is an exaggeration) due to the few grass court tournaments, so when he encounters a big server or a big hitter who will give him no time, he could be packing his bags before he can figure out how to problem-solve the situation on the spot... something he used to be able to do better between 2006-2011, where he often had tough early matches but always navigated through them. The loss in movement and the knees make him more uncomfortable in general, and therefore, less likely to figure out these situations.

 

[Carol]

Roddick says well but he should ask Federer's fans why some of them like to provoke so much, then......take it!

 

[atttomole]

Roddick says well but he should ask Federer's fans why some of them like to provoke so much, then......take it!

It seems like Roddick is saying that both groups of fans are provocative when their player wins. He is not referring to only one group of fans.

 

[mrzz]

By the way the logical fallacies in this post made my head hurt. So you can imagine the smile on my face when I read Nadal's quote.

Regardless, in the interest of fairness and not being a dick, I'll explain re: how could Nadal improve on hards but regress on grass?

Nadal improved on hards because he improved his serve, backhand, was less reliant on running around his forehand, standing closer to the baseline, etc... Basically, his marginal loss in movement was compensated by stepping up the aggression and playing smarter hard court tennis.

Now, of course, the above improvements should translate to grass as well. And they did for a while, until the knees kicked in. Hard courts might be harder on the knees long term, but in terms of bending down low, moving, making subtle footwork adjustments, etc... grass is the surface in which the knees have to be perfect. Nadal definitely looks more awkward moving on grass now than he did when he was making finals, so he's often not a good position to hit his ground strokes.

Moreover, he has little time to make the adjustments to his new "condition" (again, this is an exaggeration) due to the few grass court tournaments, so when he encounters a big server or a big hitter who will give him no time, he could be packing his bags before he can figure out how to problem-solve the situation on the spot... something he used to be able to do better between 2006-2011, where he often had tough early matches but always navigated through them. The loss in movement and the knees make him more uncomfortable in general, and therefore, less likely to figure out these situations.

Broken, I see your point but the difference in results seems to big to be just that. Also, regarding "before he can figure out how to problem-solve the situation on the spot", if there is one guy who can problem-solve quickly, that guy is Nadal. And also, stepping up the aggression, on average, gives you more rewards on grass than on HC. It is hard not to think there´s something else to it. This year´s grass season will add an interesting new pack of evidence...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Broken, I see your point but the difference in results seems to big to be just that. Also, regarding "before he can figure out how to problem-solve the situation on the spot", if there is one guy who can problem-solve quickly, that guy is Nadal. And also, stepping up the aggression, on average, gives you more rewards on grass than on HC. It is hard not to think there´s something else to it. This year´s grass season will add an interesting new pack of evidence...

The problem is when these servers and aggressive hitters are giving him such little time on grass, often times you find yourself down a break (which is often enough to win the set on grass) and aren't seeing much of the ball in order to make the proper adjustments. If you notice, barring the Darcis straight set debacle (and the sets were all close), Nadal's Wimbledon losses have always been close, and the sets themselves have been close. It boiled down to his opponents having a look at his service games, and Nadal not being able to break. The key, therefore, is to serve well, which he's been doing this year, and protect his own serve.

 

[Carol]

LA DÉCIMA is already in Manocor

 

[the AntiPusher]

LA DÉCIMA is already in Manocor

I see Rafa pulled out of queens ..he says he needs more rest..good move

 

[Moxie]

I see Rafa pulled out of queens ..he says he needs more rest..good move

Finally he's realizing that resting is better for him than over-playing.

 

[Moxie]

The problem is when these servers and aggressive hitters are giving him such little time on grass, often times you find yourself down a break (which is often enough to win the set on grass) and aren't seeing much of the ball in order to make the proper adjustments. If you notice, barring the Darcis straight set debacle (and the sets were all close), Nadal's Wimbledon losses have always been close, and the sets themselves have been close. It boiled down to his opponents having a look at his service games, and Nadal not being able to break. The key, therefore, is to serve well, which he's been doing this year, and protect his own serve.

Both of your explanations (with the one above this one) are very helpful. Nice to see you back around, Broken.

 

[Carol]

Wise decision by Rafa, it's about time that he takes more care with his body and mind. Its not the same when they have an injury and they can't shot not even one single ball, he can now to rest a little more and practicing like everyone

 

[brokenshoelace]

Does this mean Nadal will play no grass court events before Wimbledon? Because, if so, I honestly don't think that's a good move at all.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Wise decision by Rafa, it's about time that he takes more care with his body and mind. Its not the same when they have an injury and they can't shot not even one single ball, he can now to rest a little more and practicing like everyone

He can practice with djoker

 

[Moxie]

Yawn. Just like I said 5 weeks ago - just give Nadal the trophy and everybody move on. Thank God the clay season is over and we can move back to tournaments EVERYBODY wants to play - and not just Nadal...

Your attitude seems a hair sour to me. Perhaps you're one of those who - deep down - thinks that clay is a second-tier surface. I get that Nadal went back to winning most of the clay season, but if you didn't find dramatic turns and good matches within it, then I suspect you weren't watching. Rafa's season was historic, obviously. But if that makes your skin crawl, there's a Murray resurgence, the Djokovic decline, Steve Johnson, Thiem...and I don't know if you follow the women's game, but a lot going on there, as well. I'm sure the clay season is actually one "that everyone wants to play." I suspect you really mean that 'everyone wants to watch,' but then you also might only mean yourself. It is a third of the calendar, my friend.

 

[Moxie]

Does this mean Nadal will play no grass court events before Wimbledon? Because, if so, I honestly don't think that's a good move at all.

Don't know. I would have supported either decision, but I don't see why trying the version where he goes with rest is a terrible idea. You've made the case yourself that his knees are one of the main issues. He can get his practice in on grass, but he doesn't have to have match confidence to do well, necessarily. It won't help him against the big servers, as you also talked about. His serve, and being rested will, I think. Maybe a gamble, but why not try something new?

 

[Carol]

He can practice with djoker

Well, Novak will have to go to Mallorca

 

[Carol]

Does this mean Nadal will play no grass court events before Wimbledon? Because, if so, I honestly don't think that's a good move at all.

He is not going to be out of the court, he is going to practice every single day and if for any reason he won't do well in Wimby he will be ready for the HC

 

[the AntiPusher]

Well, Novak will have to go to Mallorca

I don't blame him, it's got to be a lot better temps in Mallora than London ...he and his team have total autonomy of his schedule which is paramount..get better practice sessions and weather should not be an issue.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Don't know. I would have supported either decision, but I don't see why trying the version where he goes with rest is a terrible idea. You've made the case yourself that his knees are one of the main issues. He can get his practice in on grass, but he doesn't have to have match confidence to do well, necessarily. It won't help him against the big servers, as you also talked about. His serve, and being rested will, I think. Maybe a gamble, but why not try something new?

"Gamble" is a very good word. If he gets away with winning the first say, 3 rounds at Wimbledon, then it's all good because any potential loss after that is unlikely due to him not having played a warm up event. The problem of course, is that Nadal hasn't been winning the first 3 rounds of Wimbledon lately, so he could use the grass match practice.

The other way to look at it -- and I'm not sure this is true, but it's worth contemplating -- is that Nadal accepts that at this point, Wimbledon is his least likely major to win, so he's thinking long term and preserving his knees for the North American hard courts, where he should do well. And in the event he does well at Wimbledon, then great, but if not, then he might not have done well even if he had played Queens (judging by recent history), so what's the big deal...

From a selfish perspective I would have loved to have seen him play in Queens because I like to watch his game on grass, despite the struggles. I think it would have made more sense if he just skipped Barcelona.

 

[Moxie]

There are grass courts on Mallorca. I'd say that fishing, being at home and practicing on grass might be just the ticket.

 

[Moxie]

"Gamble" is a very good word. If he gets away with winning the first say, 3 rounds at Wimbledon, then it's all good because any potential loss after that is unlikely due to him not having played a warm up event. The problem of course, is that Nadal hasn't been winning the first 3 rounds of Wimbledon lately, so he could use the grass match practice.

The other way to look at it -- and I'm not sure this is true, but it's worth contemplating -- is that Nadal accepts that at this point, Wimbledon is his least likely major to win, so he's thinking long term and preserving his knees for the North American hard courts, where he should do well. And in the event he does well at Wimbledon, then great, but if not, then he might not have done well even if he had played Queens (judging by recent history), so what's the big deal...

From a selfish perspective I would have loved to have seen him play in Queens because I like to watch his game on grass, despite the struggles. I think it would have made more sense if he just skipped Barcelona.

I don't think skipping Barcelona would have made that much difference as to where he is now. The clay season was triumphant, and surely more than a little emotionally taxing. Would it have been that much different without Barcelona? I don't think so. I also don't think he needs the match practice on grass as much as he needs the rest. He'll take the confidence from the clay season, and grass will be what it is. Draw will have something to do with it. Do you really think that if he gets someone like Kyrgios early it would really have helped to have played Queens? I don't. I honestly think that rested, relaxed and knees less painful is his best chance to go deep at Wimbledon. If he's finally willing to say that he already has the confidence and doesn't need the match play more than he needs the rest, I find that a mature choice. We'll see.