2016 Australian Open Semifinal: Federer vs. Djokovic

[El Dude]

Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic, Round 45.

 

[nehmeth]

Roger's prior two semis here agains Novak were straight set losses. Possibility that it will be three for three.

 

[Frode789]

Nice the way you put the lower ranked player at the top. :nono

Nice that you were annoyed by irrelevant details. :cover

As for match, Novak in 4.

 

[mrzz]

Voted by wish more than by brain, but Federer's increased crisp in the forehand (I guess it was GSM who noted that first) and the court playing a bit faster gives him a better shot. Djokovic is still the favourite by quite a margin, but let's see. As everyone will say, first set will be crucial. And this time Djokovic cannot afford a bad day at the office.

 

[Carol]

Dificult to know who will win. Roger is playing better than Novak and the surface looks fast so I would give him my vote but Novak will try to make him to run miles and extending the match as long as possible which will go against him (Roger)

 

[19USC66]

Dificult to know who will win. Roger is playing better than Novak and the surface looks fast so I would give him my vote but Novak will try to make him to run miles and extending the match as long as possible which will go against him (Roger)

Match will be at night slowing the court down. Novak in four.

 

[Riotbeard]

Novak will increase his streak against Roger at the majors. If Fed can't do it at Wimbledon, what reason is there to believe he will do it on Novak's best court?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the reasons why Roger has a better chance this time against Novak.

1. Roger is serving well. He won over 80% of first serve points yesterday.
But, his serving is not as good as it was in Wimby'15.

2. Roger's forehand has found its mojo. This is an important difference compared to
last year's USO and W.

3. Roger's ROS has really become good (This is not a fannish statement, watch some
unbelievable returns of monster serves from Bird in the last set of yesterday's match).
This is the key difference compared to last years USO and W.

4. Roger is relatively fresh without any taxing matches so far. Extended to 4 just once
and that too in 3rd round which was long ago.

5. Roger's BP conversion used to suck in the recent past. That is also improving.
He had 50% in last match.

6. The courts are playing little bit faster.

7. The ball is staying low, making Roger's slices remain at shoe string level causing difficulty for opponents.

8. Novak's UFE is mounting. After 100 against Simon, he has cut it down to 27 against Kei. But, people need to realize that his differential is negative (-5) even in his straight set match against Kei.

Having said that, Novak is still the favorite. He has never went home without the trophy after reaching SF at AO. Further night match will tilt the advantage to Novak.

But, my gut feeling says Roger takes it this time.

 

[mrzz]

^^Given the circumstances (that is, Federer is playing a guy who is #1 in the world by a mile and loses only once in a blue moon), things could not be better.

 

[DarthFed]

Slow court, I can't imagine Federer beating Nole in a best of 5 at Australia. He blew his best chances last year with 2 pretty ugly performances in the Wimbledon and USO final and was embarrassed at both. This time he will need to play lights out and hope for poor play from Nole, not likely to happen.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Dificult to know who will win. Roger is playing better than Novak and the surface looks fast so I would give him my vote but Novak will try to make him to run miles and extending the match as long as possible which will go against him (Roger)

Djoker in 4, too tough of a task to expect Roger to beat Novak in his "backyard".

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Slow court, I can't imagine Federer beating Nole in a best of 5 at Australia. He blew his best chances last year with 2 pretty ugly performances in the Wimbledon and USO final and was embarrassed at both. This time he will need to play lights out and hope for poor play from Nole, not likely to happen.

1. If Roger does not win the first set, he will lose the match.

2. If Roger is trailing 1-2 after three sets, he will lose the match.

These two are certain.

The improvement since W and USO, is in the areas of forehand, ROS and BP conversion.
Of course, we need to see whether these hold on the big day.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger's forehand looked awesome last night but it was also pretty deadly in Cincy and the USO until it went erratic vs. Djokovic in the final. Playing Djokovic, especially on a slow court, requires Roger to go for more on the forehand. The BP conversion has mostly been a problem vs. great players on big stages. I wouldn't put too much stock into him breaking a good percentage vs. non-elite players.

 

[I.Haychew]

I don't think that Djokovic and Federer can maintain their current levels of play. Therefore, I'll go with Djokovic.
I hope the winner goes on to win the whole thing.

 

[nehmeth]

Roger's forehand looked awesome last night but it was also pretty deadly in Cincy and the USO until it went erratic vs. Djokovic in the final. Playing Djokovic, especially on a slow court, requires Roger to go for more on the forehand. The BP conversion has mostly been a problem vs. great players on big stages. I wouldn't put too much stock into him breaking a good percentage vs. non-elite players.

I think too, that Roger will need it to be a day match (and hot). If it's at night? :nono

 

[mrzz]

Roger's forehand looked awesome last night but it was also pretty deadly in Cincy and the USO until it went erratic vs. Djokovic in the final. Playing Djokovic, especially on a slow court, requires Roger to go for more on the forehand. The BP conversion has mostly been a problem vs. great players on big stages. I wouldn't put too much stock into him breaking a good percentage vs. non-elite players.

I think too, that Roger will need it to be a day match (and hot). If it's at night? :nono

It is at night. But the forehand looks better here than in Cincy (not even factoring the speed of the court). Maybe he payed attention to the fact that the only guy beating Djokovic at the slams was Stanimal.

 

[AnonymousFan]

I didn't realize the winner of this match gets an extra day of rest before the final...thought the men's semifinals would be on the same day. Interesting.

 

[prathew]

Here's something I cobbled up as a preview to the anticipated cracker.

https://liquidwhipforehand.wordpress.com/2016/01/26/the-swiss-and-the-serb/

Let me know what you guys think.

 

[Fiero425]

I didn't realize the winner of this match gets an extra day of rest before the final...thought the men's semifinals would be on the same day. Interesting.

Happens, but at this level, it shouldn't make a difference! uzzled :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I didn't realize the winner of this match gets an extra day of rest before the final...thought the men's semifinals would be on the same day. Interesting.

It has been like that for the last several years at the AO. The two semifinals are played on two separate days. But, nobody is required to play the final right next day after the semifinals.