2014 Wimbledon Semi: Raonic v Federer

[Riotbeard]

Also one benefit for raonic is as long as he serves ok, he can come out tight and play into form as long as his serve is clicking and most likely not get punished for it.

 

[El Dude]

I voted Roger in 4. As some have said, I think the pressure will get to Milos and that Roger will start figuring out how to beat him. But of course anything could happen.

Interesting stat. In their four matches (all of which Roger has won), they've played 12 sets, 5 of which have been tiebreaks. Roger's won 3, Milos 2.

 

[MartyB]

Roger in 4 sets. Big servers are not Fed's achilles heel at Wimbledon! On this surface that sliced return on 2d serves I think will prove very effective against the big man & force him out of his comfort zone. In the end if Roger can effectively hold his serve (which I believe he will) then he will take this match.

 

[crystalfire]

Can Tim Howard save federer lol

 

[Correspondent Kiu]

Milos in 4
I went against the Master, he will be over-powered by the serve!

 

[DarthFed]

Milos in 4
I went against the Master, he will be over-powered by the serve!

I'm disappointed, usually your predictions are accurate and you often side with Roger.

 

[Moxie]

Milos in 4
I went against the Master, he will be over-powered by the serve!

I'm disappointed, usually your predictions are accurate and you often side with Roger.

Kiu likes a spoiler, particularly on the ATP side.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Surely, Milos's return game has improved. However, I still think Fed will take this in
three sets with one of them via a TB. If at all, Milos manages to win a set, it will be via
A TB.

I was looking at the statistics on "percentage of return games won" in 2014 for
different players. Surprisingly Rafa tops the list with 38% of return games won.
Considering this stat, it is amazing that Rafa had such a difficulty in returning
Krygios.

Milos's percentage stands at 19. It is better than that of Isner and Karlovic
put together. Milos's position in the list is 55.

Fed stands at 27% and ranks 12th in the list.

 

[Moxie]

Surely, Milos's return game has improved. However, I still think Fed will take this in
three sets with one of them via a TB. If at all, Milos manages to win a set, it will be via
A TB.

I was looking at the statistics on "percentage of return games won" in 2014 for
different players. Surprisingly Rafa tops the list with 38% of return games won.
Considering this stat, it is amazing that Rafa had such a difficulty in returning
Krygios.

Milos's percentage stands at 19. It is better than that of Isner and Karlovic
put together. Milos's position in the list is 55.

Fed stands at 27% and ranks 12th in the list.

Interesting points on the ROS. So, obviously Roger has to have a good serving day, but he likely will.

(Sidebar: You shouldn't be surprised about Nadal being at the top of the list of return games won. He often is. But there's only so much you can do when a guy is having a serving day like Kyrgios did. Grass amplifies that, and you can only guess right so often.)

 

[crystalfire]

[attachment=105]
idk i found this funny apparently he could have saved rafa hahahahaha:laydownlaughing

 

[Moxie]

Tim Howard: Rockstar!

 

[Haelfix]

(Sidebar: You shouldn't be surprised about Nadal being at the top of the list of return games won. He often is. But there's only so much you can do when a guy is having a serving day like Kyrgios did. Grass amplifies that, and you can only guess right so often.)

Be careful, ROS % is a very loaded statistic. It often has to do with how many games you play on clay vs how many you play on hard. Nadal has routinely had one of the best ROS percentages in the game, but then that's b/c he goes deep in every single clay tourney and so particularly early in the season, the stat means a lot less than it would.

Its amusing that the best ROSers on grass are completely different. People like Hewitt jumps up a lot, as do people like Nishikori, and Novak and Rafa nosedive in the rankings.

On hards, you get the more predictable ROS specialists like Murray/Novak/Ferrer. Rafa is ok, but i'd say his ros is weaker than it appears numerically and rather its his baseline game that is just completely dominant and which is affecting the result.

 

[Moxie]

(Sidebar: You shouldn't be surprised about Nadal being at the top of the list of return games won. He often is. But there's only so much you can do when a guy is having a serving day like Kyrgios did. Grass amplifies that, and you can only guess right so often.)

Be careful, ROS % is a very loaded statistic. It often has to do with how many games you play on clay vs how many you play on hard. Nadal has routinely had one of the best ROS percentages in the game, but then that's b/c he goes deep in every single clay tourney and so particularly early in the season, the stat means a lot less than it would.

Its amusing that the best ROSers on grass are completely different. People like Hewitt jumps up a lot, as do people like Nishikori, and Novak and Rafa nosedive in the rankings.

On hards, you get the more predictable ROS specialists like Murray/Novak/Ferrer. Rafa is ok, but i'd say his ros is weaker than it appears numerically and rather its his baseline game that is just completely dominant and which is affecting the result.

Oh, no, I get that…that's why I said grass was different. However, it's not fair to say it's "surprising." I don't think it's only the clay numbers that skew the difference, as I think his ROS % is pretty good on Hards, too. I look forward to your numbers, if you disagree.

 

[Front242]

Hopefully we may see some of this later. The serve at the start was 140mph and he hit a drop shot return lol.

[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-Di81tgLrU&feature=player_detailpage[/video]

 

[Haelfix]

Oh, no, I get that…that's why I said grass was different. However, it's not fair to say it's "surprising." I don't think it's only the clay numbers that skew the difference, as I think his ROS % is pretty good on Hards, too. I look forward to your numbers, if you disagree.

Rafa's numbers on hards stands at about 30% ros, on clay its 38-39% and on grass it falls off a cliff (not enough data over the last two years). What that says to me, is that on a surface where one's baseline game is more important than the technical ability of returning a serve, that a players numbers jump indicates that his baseline game is significantly better than the rest of the fields. Meanwhile if the ros% stays roughly constant (like Ferrer), then it says more about the ability of the return perse.

Anyway, I view the hc number as roughly what his true value is. Lets say a 25% roserver (above average) + 5% baseline superiority relative to the rest of the field.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Nice first point from Milos.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

And the right tactic from Roger..bring him in, pass.

 

[Front242]

guess Roger has heavier bones cos Andy is naturally skinny. He was a beanpole when he first came on tour.

 

[Front242]

Not much bigger than Goffin

 

[Front242]

hes worked hard to bulk up unlike Goffin