2014 Slam Challenge - Roland Garros

[kskate2]

Anyone can get hot and go on a streak. We'll see if this is his slam to streak for 7 consecutive matches.

 

[El Dude]

For everyone who has Nishi as their DH choice, I am curious as to the reasoning behind it. His body broke down in Madrid. Here, he will be playing best of fives over two weeks.

On my part consider it wishful thinking!

 

[El Dude]

OK, let the matches begin. Two things:

1) You can still vote, but receive a -3 penalty per day.
2) A bunch of people have errors - doubling up of QF and DH or WC, mainly, but a couple more complex errors. I have sent PMs to those with errors in their predictions and have said that if you change them on the first day we'll give you a free pass and not penalize you. Those with errors are:

TennisFanatic7, GameSetAndMath, crystalfire, britbox, fedfan, kskate2

Please check your private messages!

 

[britbox]

El Dude has politely reminded me I've doubled up on Nishikori, so will swap my QF slot for Raonic, with Kei remaining the dark horse.

W - Djokovic
F - Nadal
SF - Federer, Murray
QF - Ferrer, Wawrinka, Berdych, Raonic

Darkhorse - Nishikori
Wildcard - Dimitrov

 

[britbox]

For everyone who has Nishi as their DH choice, I am curious as to the reasoning behind it. His body broke down in Madrid. Here, he will be playing best of fives over two weeks.

I doubt anybody really expects him to go much beyond the QF.... prior to that the matches may be best of 5 but they are generally less brutal than a Masters series - you have more qualifiers and lower ranked players in the field.

Yeah, he is fragile (and I'm assuming he's largely recovered from Madrid) but I think he should be OK through week one from a physical standpoint.

 

[Moxie]

For everyone who has Nishi as their DH choice, I am curious as to the reasoning behind it. His body broke down in Madrid. Here, he will be playing best of fives over two weeks.

I doubt anybody really expects him to go much beyond the QF.... prior to that the matches may be best of 5 but they are generally less brutal than a Masters series - you have more qualifiers and lower ranked players in the field.

Yeah, he is fragile (and I'm assuming he's largely recovered from Madrid) but I think he should be OK through week one from a physical standpoint.

Exactly. I didn't make him my DH for the physical reasons, but I picked Gulbis and he's got a head that's just as likely to break down over 7 matches. Maybe Dimitrov is a better DH, but I don't think there are any even nearly plausible ones. Fog is the same problem as Gulbis.

 

[britbox]

For everyone who has Nishi as their DH choice, I am curious as to the reasoning behind it. His body broke down in Madrid. Here, he will be playing best of fives over two weeks.

I doubt anybody really expects him to go much beyond the QF.... prior to that the matches may be best of 5 but they are generally less brutal than a Masters series - you have more qualifiers and lower ranked players in the field.

Yeah, he is fragile (and I'm assuming he's largely recovered from Madrid) but I think he should be OK through week one from a physical standpoint.

Exactly. I didn't make him my DH for the physical reasons, but I picked Gulbis and he's got a head that's just as likely to break down over 7 matches. Maybe Dimitrov is a better DH, but I don't think there are any even nearly plausible ones. Fog is the same problem as Gulbis.

Gulbis record in majors is pretty apalling, so I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole. I've got Dimitrov as a wildcard... but yeah, given the draw - the options are pretty thin on the ground.

 

[Moxie]

^I think you could pick several guys to spoil, or for your WC to make some noise, but DH…I don't personally believe there is one. If Rafa or Novak doesn't win it, Roger, Stan or Andy will, if you ask me. So why not pick Nishikori, or Gulbis?

 

[britbox]

I already picked Nishikori as a DH because he's fairly consistent in majors on slower surfaces - he's been to R4 the last three times at the AO and French (in combination).

Gulbis on the other hand - since 2010, he's had 9 first round exits, 5 second round exits and 1 third round exit. It doesn't really inspire any confidence that he's going to get anywhere near a QF berth. I'd be more confident picking next door's pet cat.

Anyway, we'll see how it pans out.

 

[Moxie]

^ I thought about your next door neighbor's pet cat instead of Gulbis, but didn't know its name. Probably would have been a better bet. :laydownlaughing

 

[El Dude]

Alright, the stat fetishist in me wanted to see how Tennis Frontier ranks all of the players so I devised a little ranking system: 5 pts for a Win, 3 pts for a Final, 2 for a SF, and 1 for a QF, DH, and WC. Here's how it turned out:

69 Djokovic
53 Nadal
31 Wawrinka
29 Federer
23 Murray
16 Nishikori
15 Ferrer
14 Dimitrov
13 Berdych
9 Gulbis
5 Bautista Agut
5 Raonic
3 Fognini
3 Tsonga
2 Almagro, Monfils, Robredo, Kohlschreiber
1 Haas, Gasquet, Verdasco, Granollers, Simon, Dolgopolov, Tomic, Garcia-Lopez, Starace

That seems about right, although there are a few surprises (aside from the seemingly for-the-fun-of-it picks like the already defeated Potato Starch):
*Djokovic is considered the forum favorite
*Nishikori is getting a lot of love, more than even Ferrer (by just a bit) and Berdych
*Gulbis is also getting a surprising amount of love
*Tsonga is getting no love
*Neither is Janowicz, who didn't even get a QF or WC
*Other notable players not receiving any votes: Isner, Youzhny, Anderson, Cilic, Pospisil

EDIT: I've put those eliminated in bold and will continue to do so throughout the tournament

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Quarterfinals:
Tommy Haas vs. David Ferrer
Stan Wawrinka vs. Fernando Verdasco
Agut vs. Federer
Nishikori vs. Djokovic

Semifinals:
David Ferrer vs. Stan Wawrinka
Federer vs. Nishikori

Finals:
Wawrinka vs. Federer

Winner:
Roger Federer

Dark Horse:
Kei Nishikori

Wild Card:
Tommy Haas

At the request of Dude, I am changing my DH and WC Picks.

DH: Grigor Dimitrov
WC: Jo W. Tsonga

 

[nehmeth]

Nishi is TOAST... Klizan sends him packing in three. Didn't think he'd make it past the third round...

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I would like to know how Kei picked up a ankle problem???
I thought he would have least made it to the quarters.....how wrong was I.

 

[nehmeth]

I would like to know how Kei picked up a ankle problem???
I thought he would have least made it to the quarters.....how wrong was I.

Kei's body isn't built for the type of wear and tear it faces on the tour. It seems that since Chang joined his team, Kei has added some muscle to his frame. But his frame was never sturdy and there were those who always thought the injury bug would be his biggest opponent throughout his career.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nishi is TOAST... Klizan sends him packing in three. Didn't think he'd make it past the third round...

There goes my semifinalist.:cry

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Oh Wow my bracket just got another big Wack.

Thanks to Stan....who wasnt The Man Today

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I would like to know how Kei picked up a ankle problem???
I thought he would have least made it to the quarters.....how wrong was I.

Kei's body isn't built for the type of wear and tear it faces on the tour. It seems that since Chang joined his team, Kei has added some muscle to his frame. But his frame was never sturdy and there were those who always thought the injury bug would be his biggest opponent throughout his career.

Yeah....Kei's body is just made of glass...I was going to change my quarter final picks when I read a article about Kei just before RG started.He said he wasnt 100% but should be okay before RG started.
I wont be making the same mistake again.Still I love Kei's play...pity about his body breaking down though.

 

[Denis]

Apologies for this late entry.

W: Djokovic
F: Nadal
Semis: Federer, Fognini
QF: Ferrer, Murray, Raonic, Berdych

DH: Dimitrov
WC: Gulbis

edit: I added the QFists, is this a new feature?

 

[tented]

After Wawrinka's loss yesterday, I was reminded of last year's early round exits at Wimbledon. Perhaps we should add a category, where people get points for picking the first of the top 8 seeds to lose? I'm only half-joking.