Moxie629 said:
^ I'm not going to credit your "gut" anymore than I give credence to GSM's notion: that, since Rafa won 4, then lost one, won 4 again, therefore he'll lose this year, based on pattern. However, I will say that we've all been wondering for a quite a while how long Rafa can keep up this high-wire act on clay, particularly at Roland Garros. (I mean that seriously, as a fan who can bluster with the best of them.) I don't really think anyone gets points for predicting it'll be this year, or for predicting it won't. Rafa is off the charts now, so we'll just have to wait and see.
Nadal will lose at RG again someday, unless he pulls off the near-impossible, and keeps winning there, then retires. But he's already pulled off what seemed heretofore impossible at the French, so…who knows?
I'll expand: My "gut" is not based on some potential odd statistical coincidence. Instead, I think Nadal had a phenomenal year last season in which he reached almost every final, and I believe come the FO, he might be lacking a bit in terms of intensity as a result, especially given that he will, at the absolute worst, go very deep in all of the clay tournaments leading up to it.
We've seen it before with Novak after 2011, Roger after 2012, and Nadal himself after 2010, where the emotional, mental, and physical toll of having an outrageously good year catches up to you. Granted, I think even a slightly less intense Rafa could still sleepwalk into the FO final, which is why I said he won't be losing before the final in another thread, but seeing the level required for him to beat Djokovic (even on clay, Rafa still has to play very well), a loss in intensity might ultimately prove to be a difference-maker.
Remember 2011? That was kind of what happened during that clay court season. And even in his 2011 FO win, Nadal looked pretty average by his impossible standards.
Now, let me be clear: I always am so vocally against making predictions about slam winners months in advance, before we actually see how they're playing in the weeks leading up to the slam and most importantly, at the slam itself. So this is in NO WAY a prediction. It's more of an initial observation. Come June, Rafa may be looking like his normal King of Clay self and I'll be the first to predict he'll be biting the trophy...unless he runs into clay killers Isner, Fogini and Cilic, of course
PS: To be even clearer, as it stands, Nadal is still the clear favorite at the FO until proven otherwise, and it's up for Novak to prove otherwise.
