Denisovich said:
The most important thing is that I have not seen Djokovic dominate Nadal so badly. Nadal basically had no answers whatsoever. It was Djokovic, Djokovic, and Djokovic. Very promising. I don't see Nadal finding the answers too, he'll just have to hope that the level drops somehow.
I'm glad you made this post because it highlights a thinking that I believe is a bit faulty. I don't know how to explain this properly but I'll try:
Let me start off by saying, the above post is right, strictly speaking. If Djokovic plays like this on hards, there is not much Nadal can do, or anyone else for that matter.
However, it ignores how small the margins are in tennis at the highest level, and implies a sense of helplessness on the behalf of the loser that isn't necessarily there. Nadal doesn't have to "hope" Novak's level drops because Novak's level WILL drop. I said as much in 2011 and people got on my case. Every now and then, you get a match where everything clicks. Hell, sometimes, players go through a much longer spell than a match. Novak virtually had 6 months like that in 2011, where every performance against a top player was a clinic. All the top players look unbeatable at their very best. Nadal looked pretty damn dominant himself last summer, and beat Novak on hards twice in the process. But, on the long run, not even the best players in the world can keep up this level.
Now, let me be clear about something: Djokovic DOES NOT need to play this well to beat Nadal on hards. He's played worse before and beat him in routine fashion. However, and here is what I wanted to touch on, as out of options as Nadal looked on Sunday (and he did look pretty damn out of options), the slightest drop in Novak's level the next time they play (and while I'm not saying he can't recreate that performance, it's not far-fetched to assume he might be a touch less sharp), and Nadal will all of a sudden seem like he has options.
That's how small the margins are in tennis. A little less depth on a Djokovic backhand cross court means Nadal all of a sudden has a chance to change directions and fire the ball up the line with the forehand. That shot alone can change the dynamic of the match-up, as it has in the past. Except, it's hard to execute that shot when your opponent is hitting obscenely good cross court backhands. Conversely, Novak cannot be expected to hit his backhand quite as well all the time. They've played 40 times already. There's a reason Djokovic hasn't won all 40, or even 20 of their meetings.
Take their Montreal match last year. Novak of course, did not play anywhere near as well as he did last Sunday. But, with the exception of an admittedly poor first set, he played at a pretty damn good level, and the result was one their most entertaining matches. The level of tennis in that third set was ridiculous. Nadal was hitting his cross court backhand so well, as well as his down the line forehand, and ultimately, that won him the match. Yet, had Novak been hitting his backhand as well as he did in Miami, the outcome would have been in reverse. But, that goes back to the point I just made: He can't be expected to always play like that.
But again to be clear, as well as Nadal played in Montreal, he still won 7-6 in the third. Which is as close as it can get. So clearly, Novak has an edge on hards, and a significant one in my mind.
Where Novak needs to be perfect though, is clay. They've played a bazillion times on clay, and the only 3 times Novak was able to win, he was virtually perfect. Anything less (like his FO performance) will just not cut it. Speaking of which, and just to highlight how close the margins are, take their Monte Carlo match last year: Novak was unplayable in the first set and took Nadal to task. Yet, a slight drop in his level in the second, and Nadal was back in it, despite not playing all that much better himself, and even then he was twice up a break and blew it, including once serving for the set.
Let me point out that I'm not calling you out per se, as your post isn't technically wrong, but I'm pointing out that it's easy to get carried away sometimes, and ignoring the bigger picture. I'm on the record saying Novak will beat Nadal more often than not, and have said that 3 years ago. I believe that today more than ever. But let's keep in mind that things like surfaces, form, confidence, momentum and other intangibles matter a great deal (Nadal's US Open final with Novak is a great example. He was just in better form, had all the momentum/confidence in the world, and was just playing better. He came in as the favorite against Novak on hards -- quite a rarity. And the result surprised no one). These things make a whole lot of difference. Hence Novak going from beating Nadal 6 times in a row to losing 6 out of 7 to beat him 3 times in a row again. It's easy to say "see! At his best, he'll never lose to Nadal." Or "if only he played like that at the US Open!" Except it's not that simple.
